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Is Japan’s aging and, more recently, declining population hampering its growth and reflation efforts? Exploiting the demographic and economic variation in the prefectural data between 1990 and 2007, we find that aging of the working age population has had a significant negative impact on the total factor productivity (TFP). Moreover, prefectures that aged at a faster pace experienced lower overall inflation, while prefectures with higher population growth experienced higher inflation. The results give strong support to the notion that demographic headwinds can have a non-trivial impact on the TFP and deflationary pressures.
Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy – World Scientific Publishing Company
Published: Jun 1, 2017
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