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MOZAMBIQUE: Post‐Election Fallout

MOZAMBIQUE: Post‐Election Fallout The opposition is stronger, and resentment rises over electoral fraud. President Filipe Nyusi , the formally declared victor of October's presidential poll with 57% of the valid votes, has steep hills to climb, says Africa Confidential . He needs to restore public confidence in the ruling Frelimo and also to win the support of disaffected party members for his leadership. Now, however, the main priority must be to quell the continuing anger among the public and the opposition parties over Frelimo's electoral fraud. The concerted, nationally organised and massively‐resourced effort to subvert the polls had a greater impact on the final result than earlier reports indicated, according to election analysts. Initially, as with Frelimo's electoral manipulation in 2009 and in previous elections, the impact on the final result was not thought to have been decisive. Yet Nyusi only polled 51.77% of all votes cast, including spoiled ballot papers, which means that without the fraud the presidential poll could well have gone to a second round. Neither Renamo nor the Democratic Movement of Mozambique ( MDM ) accept the results, which saw Frelimo lose 50 seats but maintain a majority in Parliament. Claims by both opposition parties that they won the elections are not convincing – particularly the 80% of the vote that Renamo claims went to its leader, Afonso Dhlakama . Some districts saw official turnouts of more than 100%, and final results sheets (editais) being forged to favour Frelimo. Senior legal officials in Mozambique are concerned and the MDM leader, Daviz Simango , believes that this was the largest electoral fraud that the country has ever seen. In Tete Province, European Union ( EU ) observers had problems with accreditation that prevented them from fulfilling their roles. Meanwhile, in Tete city there were 234 editais but only 178 polling stations. Also, blank votes amounted to more than 30% in two of Tete's districts; anything over 10% is normally considered highly suspect. There is a striking countrywide pattern showing higher levels of abstention, spoiled and blank ballots in areas won by Renamo and an exceptionally high turnout, coupled with lower numbers of spoiled and blank ballots, in areas won by Frelimo. In provinces where the vote was close, it is hard to be sure who really won. In Niassa Province, for example, almost 50,000 of the votes were spoiled or blank and Frelimo only just won – by less than 15,000 votes. The presidential election was even closer: Dhlakama lost to Nyusi by 2,083 votes in Niassa. Around 36,000 votes were blank or spoiled. Some election experts suggest that such high turnouts point to ballot‐stuffing in favour of Frelimo, along with a battery of measures to invalidate opposition votes or simply prevent them being cast. […] Nevertheless, Renamo has chosen not to challenge the probity of the elections or call for them to be annulled. Instead, Renamo plans to use the widespread impression of fraud to wrest patronage concessions from Frelimo. There are also reports that Frelimo colluded illegally with Renamo to suppress the MDM vote in places where it might serve their mutual interests. Members of Maputo's diplomatic community who followed the polls closely now say privately that they have no confidence in the final count, given the seemingly widespread fraud and their own observations of irregularities. They add that they cannot be sure that Nyusi should not have faced a second round. They suspect that the ‘disorganisation’ that prevented people in opposition areas from voting was in reality organised by Frelimo and question the abnormally high turnout in traditional Frelimo strongholds such as Gaza: the turnout there reached the improbably high level of 80% in some rural districts, rising to an incredible 96% in Massangena and over 100% reported in others. The EU has not endorsed the elections yet, so far only describing them as ‘orderly’, while noting many irregularities, ‘regretting’ the obstacles its observers and many voters experienced, and pointedly not employing the customary formula of ‘free and fair’. The United States has urged proper investigation of the irregularities and issued strong criticism of the failures in electoral administration and abuse of state resources during the campaign. (Africa Confidential 7/11) Presidential poll p. 20303A http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Africa Research Bulletin: Political, Social and Cultural Series Wiley

MOZAMBIQUE: Post‐Election Fallout

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
ISSN
0001-9844
eISSN
1467-825X
DOI
10.1111/j.1467-825X.2014.05992.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The opposition is stronger, and resentment rises over electoral fraud. President Filipe Nyusi , the formally declared victor of October's presidential poll with 57% of the valid votes, has steep hills to climb, says Africa Confidential . He needs to restore public confidence in the ruling Frelimo and also to win the support of disaffected party members for his leadership. Now, however, the main priority must be to quell the continuing anger among the public and the opposition parties over Frelimo's electoral fraud. The concerted, nationally organised and massively‐resourced effort to subvert the polls had a greater impact on the final result than earlier reports indicated, according to election analysts. Initially, as with Frelimo's electoral manipulation in 2009 and in previous elections, the impact on the final result was not thought to have been decisive. Yet Nyusi only polled 51.77% of all votes cast, including spoiled ballot papers, which means that without the fraud the presidential poll could well have gone to a second round. Neither Renamo nor the Democratic Movement of Mozambique ( MDM ) accept the results, which saw Frelimo lose 50 seats but maintain a majority in Parliament. Claims by both opposition parties that they won the elections are not convincing – particularly the 80% of the vote that Renamo claims went to its leader, Afonso Dhlakama . Some districts saw official turnouts of more than 100%, and final results sheets (editais) being forged to favour Frelimo. Senior legal officials in Mozambique are concerned and the MDM leader, Daviz Simango , believes that this was the largest electoral fraud that the country has ever seen. In Tete Province, European Union ( EU ) observers had problems with accreditation that prevented them from fulfilling their roles. Meanwhile, in Tete city there were 234 editais but only 178 polling stations. Also, blank votes amounted to more than 30% in two of Tete's districts; anything over 10% is normally considered highly suspect. There is a striking countrywide pattern showing higher levels of abstention, spoiled and blank ballots in areas won by Renamo and an exceptionally high turnout, coupled with lower numbers of spoiled and blank ballots, in areas won by Frelimo. In provinces where the vote was close, it is hard to be sure who really won. In Niassa Province, for example, almost 50,000 of the votes were spoiled or blank and Frelimo only just won – by less than 15,000 votes. The presidential election was even closer: Dhlakama lost to Nyusi by 2,083 votes in Niassa. Around 36,000 votes were blank or spoiled. Some election experts suggest that such high turnouts point to ballot‐stuffing in favour of Frelimo, along with a battery of measures to invalidate opposition votes or simply prevent them being cast. […] Nevertheless, Renamo has chosen not to challenge the probity of the elections or call for them to be annulled. Instead, Renamo plans to use the widespread impression of fraud to wrest patronage concessions from Frelimo. There are also reports that Frelimo colluded illegally with Renamo to suppress the MDM vote in places where it might serve their mutual interests. Members of Maputo's diplomatic community who followed the polls closely now say privately that they have no confidence in the final count, given the seemingly widespread fraud and their own observations of irregularities. They add that they cannot be sure that Nyusi should not have faced a second round. They suspect that the ‘disorganisation’ that prevented people in opposition areas from voting was in reality organised by Frelimo and question the abnormally high turnout in traditional Frelimo strongholds such as Gaza: the turnout there reached the improbably high level of 80% in some rural districts, rising to an incredible 96% in Massangena and over 100% reported in others. The EU has not endorsed the elections yet, so far only describing them as ‘orderly’, while noting many irregularities, ‘regretting’ the obstacles its observers and many voters experienced, and pointedly not employing the customary formula of ‘free and fair’. The United States has urged proper investigation of the irregularities and issued strong criticism of the failures in electoral administration and abuse of state resources during the campaign. (Africa Confidential 7/11) Presidential poll p. 20303A

Journal

Africa Research Bulletin: Political, Social and Cultural SeriesWiley

Published: Jan 1, 2014

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