Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
P. Adämmer, Martin Bohl (2015)
Speculative bubbles in agricultural pricesThe Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 55
A. Zuo, Céline Nauges, S. Wheeler (2015)
Farmers' exposure to risk and their temporary water tradingEuropean Review of Agricultural Economics, 42
(2019)
Littleproud flags possible government intervention in southern water market ahead of ACCC inquiry
Maryanne Slattery, R. Campbell (2019)
Southern discomfort: water losses in the southern Murray Darling Basin
W. Hanemann (2005)
The economic conception of water
S. Bonviller, A. Zuo, S. Wheeler (2019)
Is there evidence of insider trading in Australian water markets?†Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 63
Data were derived from the following resources available in the public domain: The 645
Ipcc (2022)
Global Warming of 1.5°C
H. Bjornlund, S. Wheeler, J. Cheesman (2011)
Irrigators, Water Trading, the Environment and Debt: Buying water entitlements for the environment
S. Scheierling, J. Loomis, R. Young (2006)
Irrigation water demand: A meta‐analysis of price elasticitiesWater Resources Research, 42
(2019)
Water market transparency: Options paper
(2019)
Investments and uncertainty: Cost-benefit analysis and water-use efficiency
A. Loch, David Adamson, N. Dumbrell (2020)
The Fifth Stage in Water Management: Policy Lessons for Water GovernanceWater Resources Research, 56
S. Wheeler, A. Loch, A. Zuo, H. Bjornlund, H. Bjornlund (2014)
Reviewing the adoption and impact of water markets in the Murray–Darling Basin, AustraliaJournal of Hydrology, 518
(2019)
Warning of 'dire consequences' for some Murray-Darling irrigators if water trade restricted
A. Loch, S. Wheeler, Claire Settre (2018)
Private Transaction Costs of Water Trade in the Murray–Darling BasinEcological Economics, 146
Constantin Seidl, S. Wheeler, A. Zuo (2020)
Treating water markets like stock markets: Key water market reform lessons in the Murray-Darling BasinJournal of Hydrology, 581
J. Crean, K. Parton, J. Mullen, P. Hayman (2015)
Valuing Seasonal Climate Forecasts in a State‐Contingent MannerERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture
(2020)
Water for Fodder
(2019)
Australian Water Markets Report 2017-18 – southern Murray -Darling Basin Section
(2017)
Agricultural Census: Nature and content, 2015-16 [Online
(2013)
Water markets and their environmental, social and economic impact in Australia
J. Keynes (1937)
The General Theory of EmploymentQuarterly Journal of Economics, 51
(2019)
Water use on Australian farms, 2017-18
A. Loch, S. Wheeler, H. Bjornlund, S. Beecham, J. Edwards, A. Zuo, M. Shanahan (2013)
The role of water markets in climate change adaptation
ACT: Commonwealth Scientific and Industry Research Organization
(2020)
Long range weather and climate [Online
Coalition makes on-farm pre-election pledge of cheap loans and water market 772 review
(2020)
Water Information - Water Dashboards [Online
D. Collentine (2006)
Water Resource Economics: The Analysis of Scarcity, Policies and ProjectsEuropean Review of Agricultural Economics, 33
(2006)
Asset float and speculative bubbles. The journal
David Adamson, A. Loch (2021)
Incorporating Uncertainty in the Economic Evaluation of Capital Investments for Water-Use Efficiency ImprovementsLand Economics, 97
J. Harrison, David Kreps, C. Plott, Vernon Smith (1978)
Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous ExpectationsQuarterly Journal of Economics, 92
S. Wheeler, H. Bjornlund, A. Zuo, M. Shanahan (2010)
The changing profile of water traders in the Goulburn-Murray Irrigation District, AustraliaAgricultural Water Management, 97
J. Hirshleifer (1977)
THE THEORY OF SPECULATION UNDER ALTERNATIVE REGIMES OF MARKETSJournal of Finance, 32
David Adamson, A. Loch, K. Schwabe (2016)
Adaptation responses to increasing drought frequency†Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 61
(2003)
Water Trading in Australia, Current and prospective products, current trends and prospective instruments to improve water market function. report prepared for the Water Reform Working Group
R. Grafton, Jim Horne, S. Wheeler, S. Wheeler (2016)
On the Marketisation of Water: Evidence from the Murray-Darling Basin, AustraliaWater Resources Management, 30
R. Grafton, D. Connell (2011)
Basin Futures: Water reform in the Murray-Darling Basin
(2019)
Water Data: Our historical water data
ACT: Department of Agriculture, Water and the 706 Environment
S. Wheeler, A. Zuo, N. Hughes (2014)
The impact of water ownership and water market trade strategy on Australian irrigators’ farm viabilityAgricultural Systems, 129
(2020)
and the need for better understanding of water market fundamentals and price 66 increase drivers
K. Arrow (1964)
The Role of Securities in the Optimal Allocation of Risk-bearingThe Review of Economic Studies, 31
(2012)
Climate and water availability in south-eastern Australia: A synthesis of findings from Phase 2 of the south eastern Australian climate initiative (SEACI)
A. Zuo, F. Qiu, S. Wheeler (2019)
Examining volatility dynamics, spillovers and government water recovery in Murray-Darling Basin water marketsResource and Energy Economics
Thilak Mallawaarachchi, Céline Nauges, O. Sanders, J. Quiggin (2017)
State‐contingent analysis of farmers’ response to weather variability: irrigated dairy farming in the Murray Valley, AustraliaAustralian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 61
R. Brooks, E. Harris (2014)
Price leadership and information transmission in Australian water allocation marketsAgricultural Water Management, 145
J. Tirole (1982)
On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational ExpectationsEconometrica, 50
(2020)
Retiring landowners 'sell the farm, keep the water'
A. Loch, David Adamson, Christopher Autricht (2020)
(g)etting to the point: The problem with water risk and uncertaintyWater Resources and Economics
S. Wheeler, J. Cheesman (2013)
Key Findings from a Survey of Sellers to the Restoring the Balance ProgrammeEconomic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy, 32
G. Wittwer, Michael Young (2020)
Distinguishing Between Policy, Drought and International Events in the Context of the Murray Darling Basin Plan
N. Dumbrell (2019)
Economics in Two Lessons: Why Markets Work So Well, and Why They Can Fail So Badly, JohnQuiggin. Published by Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2019, 408 pages, ISBN 9780691154947.Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Sheila Olmstead, Robert Stavins (2006)
Managing Water Demand: Price vs. Non-Price Conservation Programs
M. Allen, H. Coninck, O. Dube, O. Hoegh‐Guldberg, D. Jacob (2018)
Technical Summary. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways
L. Gutierrez (2013)
Speculative bubbles in agricultural commodity marketsEuropean Review of Agricultural Economics, 40
(2020)
Victorian Water Register
P. Whetton, P. Holper, J. Clarke, L. Webb, K. Hennessy, R. Colman, A. Moise, S. Power, K. Braganza, I. Watterson, B. Murphy, B. Timbal, P. Hope, A. Dowdy, J. Bhend, D. Kirono, L. Wilson, M. Grose, M. Ekström, T. Rafter, C. Heady, S. Narsey, J. Bathols, K. McInnes, D. Monselesan, J. Church, A. Lenton, Julian O'Grady, T. Bedin, Tim Erwin, Yun Li (2015)
Climate change in Australia. Projections for Australia's NRM regions
S. Wheeler, H. Bjornlund, M. Shanahan, A. Zuo (2008)
Price Elasticity of Water Allocations Demand in the Goulburn-Murray Irrigation DistrictSRPN: Farming & Agriculture (Topic)
Robert Flood, R. Hodrick (1990)
On Testing for Speculative BubblesJournal of Economic Perspectives, 4
(2019)
Submission to ACCC Inquiry into water markets in the 673
(2013)
Water trading and global water 684 scarcity: International Perspectives. RFF Press/Taylor and Francis/Routledge. 685 BOM 2019
David Adamson, A. Loch (2018)
Achieving environmental flows where buyback is constrained†Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 62
(2020)
Murray–Darling Basin water markets inquiry interim report
A. Loch, H. Bjornlund, S. Wheeler, J. Connor (2012)
Allocation Trade in Australia: A Qualitative Understanding of Irrigator Motives and BehaviourWater Sustainability eJournal
A. Randall (1981)
PROPERTY ENTITLEMENTS AND PRICING POLICIES FOR A MATURING WATER ECONOMYAustralian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 25
Ralph-C. Bayer, A. Loch (2017)
Experimental evidence on the relative efficiency of forward contracting and tradable entitlements in water marketsWater Resources and Economics, 20
C. Tisdell (2002)
Uncertainty, production, choice, and agency - The state-contingent approach.
D. Newbery (1989)
Futures Markets, Hedging and Speculation
There is a long history of concern about speculation in water markets, and potential adverse impacts on agricultural water users. However, applications of traditional analysis into price increase drivers in water markets are challenging due to data limitations. To address this, we use speculation theory, most notably Hirshleifer’s four fundamentals for speculative trade, to examine whether speculation or hoarding price increase drivers are evident in Australia’s largest water market, the southern Murray–Darling Basin. While speculation is likely, and with good reason given the gains possible, we find no evidence of hoarding behaviour in market price or volume trends. It is more plausible that agricultural sectors – notably horticultural users – have driven price increases given their requirements to access water at any cost during periods of low supply. These findings conform to theoretical expectations and help to inform badly needed insights into water market fundamentals required for future analysis. Overall, calls for stricter market controls on non‐agricultural water users are not supported by our findings. However, greater transparency in water market and broker activity, arising from substantial improvements in the underlying data and trade regulations associated with water markets, would be an ideal outcome from any public police extension.
The Australian Journal of Agricultural Resource Economics – Wiley
Published: Apr 1, 2021
Keywords: ; ; ; ;
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.