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Frequency of compound hot–dry weather extremes has significantly increased in Australia since 1889

Frequency of compound hot–dry weather extremes has significantly increased in Australia since 1889 There is high confidence that climate change has increased the probability of concurrent temperature‐precipitation extremes, changed their spatial‐temporal variations and affected the relationships between drivers of such natural hazards. However, the extent of such changes has been less investigated in Australia. Daily data spanning the period 1889‐2019 (131 years) were extracted from SILO gridded dataset at 700 grid cells (1◦ × 1◦) across Australia to calculate annual and seasonal mean daily maximum temperature (MMT) and total precipitation (TPR). A nonparametric multivariate copula framework was adopted to estimate the return period of compound hot‐dry (CHD) events based on an ‘And’ hazard scenario (hotter than a threshold ‘And’ drier than a threshold). CHD extremes were defined as years with joint return periods of longer than 25 years calculated over the period 1889‐2019. Mann‐Kendall nonparametric tests were used to analyse trends in MMT and TPR as well as in the frequency of univariate and CHD extremes. Results showed a general cooling‐wetting trend over 1889‐1989. Significant increasing trends were detected over 1990‐2019 in the frequency and severity of hot extremes across the country while trends in dry extremes were mostly insignificant (and decreasing). A significant increase in the association between temperature and precipitation was identified at various temporal scales. While the frequency of CHD extremes was mostly stable over 1889‐1989, it significantly increased between 1990 and 2019 at 44% of studied grid cells, mostly located in the north, south‐east and southwest. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science Wiley

Frequency of compound hot–dry weather extremes has significantly increased in Australia since 1889

Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science , Volume 208 (6) – Dec 1, 2022

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References (80)

Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 2022 Wiley‐VCH GmbH
ISSN
0931-2250
eISSN
1439-037X
DOI
10.1111/jac.12545
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

There is high confidence that climate change has increased the probability of concurrent temperature‐precipitation extremes, changed their spatial‐temporal variations and affected the relationships between drivers of such natural hazards. However, the extent of such changes has been less investigated in Australia. Daily data spanning the period 1889‐2019 (131 years) were extracted from SILO gridded dataset at 700 grid cells (1◦ × 1◦) across Australia to calculate annual and seasonal mean daily maximum temperature (MMT) and total precipitation (TPR). A nonparametric multivariate copula framework was adopted to estimate the return period of compound hot‐dry (CHD) events based on an ‘And’ hazard scenario (hotter than a threshold ‘And’ drier than a threshold). CHD extremes were defined as years with joint return periods of longer than 25 years calculated over the period 1889‐2019. Mann‐Kendall nonparametric tests were used to analyse trends in MMT and TPR as well as in the frequency of univariate and CHD extremes. Results showed a general cooling‐wetting trend over 1889‐1989. Significant increasing trends were detected over 1990‐2019 in the frequency and severity of hot extremes across the country while trends in dry extremes were mostly insignificant (and decreasing). A significant increase in the association between temperature and precipitation was identified at various temporal scales. While the frequency of CHD extremes was mostly stable over 1889‐1989, it significantly increased between 1990 and 2019 at 44% of studied grid cells, mostly located in the north, south‐east and southwest.

Journal

Journal of Agronomy and Crop ScienceWiley

Published: Dec 1, 2022

Keywords: climate change; Mann‐Kendall test; nonparametric copula; return period; spatial homogeneity; trend analysis

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