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Estimating the population size of an endangered shorebird, the Madagascar plover, using a habitat suitability model

Estimating the population size of an endangered shorebird, the Madagascar plover, using a habitat... The Madagascar plover Charadrius thoracicus is a shorebird endemic to western Madagascar, currently classified as globally vulnerable. It is restricted to specialized wetland habitats that are increasingly threatened by humans. To inform future conservation measures for this poorly known species, we develop a predictive habitat suitability map and use this map to estimate the size of the Madagascar plover population. We integrate spatially referenced presence‐only observations of Madagascar plovers with Landsat data, elevation data and measures of distance to settlements and the coast to produce a habitat suitability model using ecological niche factor analysis. Validation of this model using a receiver operating characteristic plot suggests that it is at least 84% accurate in predicting suitable sites. We then use our estimate of total area of suitable habitat above a critical suitability threshold and data on Madagascar plover density in suitable sites to estimate the total population size to derive a total population estimate of 3100±396 standard error individuals. Finally, we explore the conservation applications of our model. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Animal Conservation Wiley

Estimating the population size of an endangered shorebird, the Madagascar plover, using a habitat suitability model

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References (66)

Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
© 2008 The Authors
ISSN
1367-9430
eISSN
1469-1795
DOI
10.1111/j.1469-1795.2008.00157.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The Madagascar plover Charadrius thoracicus is a shorebird endemic to western Madagascar, currently classified as globally vulnerable. It is restricted to specialized wetland habitats that are increasingly threatened by humans. To inform future conservation measures for this poorly known species, we develop a predictive habitat suitability map and use this map to estimate the size of the Madagascar plover population. We integrate spatially referenced presence‐only observations of Madagascar plovers with Landsat data, elevation data and measures of distance to settlements and the coast to produce a habitat suitability model using ecological niche factor analysis. Validation of this model using a receiver operating characteristic plot suggests that it is at least 84% accurate in predicting suitable sites. We then use our estimate of total area of suitable habitat above a critical suitability threshold and data on Madagascar plover density in suitable sites to estimate the total population size to derive a total population estimate of 3100±396 standard error individuals. Finally, we explore the conservation applications of our model.

Journal

Animal ConservationWiley

Published: Apr 1, 2008

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