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COMPARATIVE FORECAST ACCURACY IN THE NEW SOUTH WALES PRIME LAMB MARKET

COMPARATIVE FORECAST ACCURACY IN THE NEW SOUTH WALES PRIME LAMB MARKET The market for Australian prime lamb is characterised by high production seasonality and a highly competitive retail demand. Because these factors often translate into substantial market variability, regular forecasts of supply and demand are important requirements of lamb market participants. There has been some forecasting activity in the state and national lamb markets but it has been a somewhat controversial activity. This paper assesses the comparative forecast accuracy of a range of methods in the New South Wales lamb market. The results indicate that no single method is clearly superior in all situations and the greatest scope for improving forecast accuracy in the New South Wales lamb market is through the use of combined econometric and naive approaches. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Australian Journal of Agricultural Resource Economics Wiley

COMPARATIVE FORECAST ACCURACY IN THE NEW SOUTH WALES PRIME LAMB MARKET

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 1990 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
ISSN
1364-985X
eISSN
1467-8489
DOI
10.1111/j.1467-8489.1990.tb00696.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The market for Australian prime lamb is characterised by high production seasonality and a highly competitive retail demand. Because these factors often translate into substantial market variability, regular forecasts of supply and demand are important requirements of lamb market participants. There has been some forecasting activity in the state and national lamb markets but it has been a somewhat controversial activity. This paper assesses the comparative forecast accuracy of a range of methods in the New South Wales lamb market. The results indicate that no single method is clearly superior in all situations and the greatest scope for improving forecast accuracy in the New South Wales lamb market is through the use of combined econometric and naive approaches.

Journal

The Australian Journal of Agricultural Resource EconomicsWiley

Published: Aug 1, 1990

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