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When do armed revolts succeed: lessons from Lanchester theory

When do armed revolts succeed: lessons from Lanchester theory AbstractMajor revolts have recently erupted in parts of the Middle East with substantial international repercussions. Predicting, coping with and winning those revolts have become a grave problem for many regimes and for world powers. We propose a new model of such revolts that describes their evolution by building on the classic Lanchester theory of combat. The model accounts for the split in the population between those loyal to the regime and those favouring the rebels. We show that, contrary to classical Lanchesterian insights regarding traditional force-on-force engagements, the outcome of a revolt is independent of the initial force sizes; it only depends on the fraction of the population supporting each side and their combat effectiveness. The model's predictions are consistent with the situations currently observed in Afghanistan, Libya and Syria (September 2011), and it points to how those situations might evolve. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of the Operational Research Society Taylor & Francis

When do armed revolts succeed: lessons from Lanchester theory

When do armed revolts succeed: lessons from Lanchester theory

Journal of the Operational Research Society , Volume 63 (10): 11 – Oct 1, 2012

Abstract

AbstractMajor revolts have recently erupted in parts of the Middle East with substantial international repercussions. Predicting, coping with and winning those revolts have become a grave problem for many regimes and for world powers. We propose a new model of such revolts that describes their evolution by building on the classic Lanchester theory of combat. The model accounts for the split in the population between those loyal to the regime and those favouring the rebels. We show that, contrary to classical Lanchesterian insights regarding traditional force-on-force engagements, the outcome of a revolt is independent of the initial force sizes; it only depends on the fraction of the population supporting each side and their combat effectiveness. The model's predictions are consistent with the situations currently observed in Afghanistan, Libya and Syria (September 2011), and it points to how those situations might evolve.

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References (25)

Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Copyright
Copyright © 2011, Operational Research Society
ISSN
1476-9360
eISSN
0160-5682
DOI
10.1057/jors.2011.146
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractMajor revolts have recently erupted in parts of the Middle East with substantial international repercussions. Predicting, coping with and winning those revolts have become a grave problem for many regimes and for world powers. We propose a new model of such revolts that describes their evolution by building on the classic Lanchester theory of combat. The model accounts for the split in the population between those loyal to the regime and those favouring the rebels. We show that, contrary to classical Lanchesterian insights regarding traditional force-on-force engagements, the outcome of a revolt is independent of the initial force sizes; it only depends on the fraction of the population supporting each side and their combat effectiveness. The model's predictions are consistent with the situations currently observed in Afghanistan, Libya and Syria (September 2011), and it points to how those situations might evolve.

Journal

Journal of the Operational Research SocietyTaylor & Francis

Published: Oct 1, 2012

Keywords: conflict analysis; defence studies; system dynamics; population; behaviour

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