Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
John Bullock (2011)
Elite Influence on Public Opinion in an Informed ElectorateAmerican Political Science Review, 105
N. Giger, Moira Nelson (2013)
The Welfare State or the Economy? Preferences, Constituencies, and Strategies for RetrenchmentEuropean Sociological Review, 29
Georg Wenzelburger, Reimut Zohlnhöfer, F. Wolf (2013)
Implications of dataset choice in comparative welfare state researchJournal of European Public Policy, 20
Michael Hansen, J. Olsen (2020)
Rhapsody in Beige: The Impact of SPD Candidate Evaluations on Vote Choice in the 2009, 2013, and 2017 Federal ElectionsGerman Politics, 29
N. Giger, Moira Nelson (2011)
The electoral consequences of welfare state retrenchment: Blame avoidance or credit claiming in the era of permanent austerity?European Journal of Political Research, 50
S. Quinlan, I. McAllister (2021)
Leader or party? Quantifying and exploring behavioral personalization 1996–2019Party Politics, 28
Moira Nelson (2016)
Credit-Claiming or Blame Avoidance? Comparing the Relationship between Welfare State Beliefs and the Framing of Social Policy Retrenchment in France and GermanyJournal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, 18
Rune Slothuus, Martin Bisgaard (2020)
How Political Parties Shape Public Opinion in the Real WorldAmerican Journal of Political Science
Olivier Jacques, L. Haffert (2021)
Are governments paying a price for austerity? Fiscal consolidations reduce government approvalEuropean Political Science Review, 13
Fabian Engler, Reimut Zohlnhöfer (2018)
Left parties, voter preferences, and economic policy-making in EuropeJournal of European Public Policy, 26
Anders Esmark, S. Schoop (2017)
Deserving social benefits? Political framing and media framing of ‘deservingness’ in two welfare reforms in DenmarkJournal of European Social Policy, 27
Georg Wenzelburger (2014)
Blame avoidance, electoral punishment and the perceptions of riskJournal of European Social Policy, 24
C. Jensen, Reimut Zohlnhöfer (2020)
Policy knowledge among ‘elite citizens’, 6
T. Evans (2014)
The Electoral Consequences of Third Way Welfare State Reforms: Social Democracy’s Transformation and Its Political Costs. By Christoph Arndt. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, 2013. Pp. 220. $57.50 (paper).Social Service Review, 88
G. Bonoli (2014)
The Electoral Consequences of Third Way Welfare State Reforms: Social Democracy’s Transformation and its Political CostsWest European Politics, 37
J. Romeijn (2018)
Do political parties listen to the(ir) public? Public opinion–party linkage on specific policy issuesParty Politics, 26
N. Giger (2012)
Is Social Policy Retrenchment Unpopular? How Welfare Reforms Affect Government PopularityEuropean Sociological Review, 28
K. Armingeon, N. Giger (2008)
Conditional Punishment: A Comparative Analysis of the Electoral Consequences of Welfare State Retrenchment in OECD Nations, 1980–2003West European Politics, 31
K. Armingeon, David Weisstanner, Sarah Engler, Panajotis Potolodis, Marlène Gerber, Philipp Leimgruber (2011)
Comparative Political Data Set 1, 1960-2009
P. Pierson (1996)
The New Politics of the Welfare StateWorld Politics, 48
(2022)
‘ Parliaments and governments database ( ParlGov ) : Information on parties , elections and cabinets in modern democracies
E. Albrecht (1952)
[Social capitalism].Deutsches medizinisches Journal, 3 7-8
R. Weaver (1986)
The Politics of Blame AvoidanceJournal of Public Policy, 6
(2022)
Comparative Welfare Entitlements Project Data Set, Version 202201
Evelyne Hübscher, T. Sattler (2016)
Fiscal Consolidation under Electoral RiskERN: Fiscal Policy Objectives; Policy Designs; Policy Coordination (Topic)
David Broockman, Christopher Skovron (2017)
Bias in Perceptions of Public Opinion Among American Political ElitesPolitical Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal
B. Geiger (2016)
Benefit ‘Myths’? The Accuracy and Inaccuracy of Public Beliefs about the Benefits SystemSocial Policy & Administration, 52
C. Green-Pedersen (2001)
Welfare-state Retrenchment in Denmark and the Netherlands, 1982-1998Comparative Political Studies, 34
G. Golosov (2010)
The Effective Number of PartiesParty Politics, 16
S. Lee, C. Jensen, C. Arndt, Georg Wenzelburger (2017)
Risky Business? Welfare State Reforms and Government Support in Britain and DenmarkBritish Journal of Political Science, 50
S. Hobolt, James Tilley, S. Banducci (2013)
Clarity of responsibility: How government cohesion conditions performance votingEuropean Journal of Political Research, 52
G. Bonoli (2012)
Blame Avoidance and Credit Claiming Revisited
C. Arndt, C. Jensen, Georg Wenzelburger (2020)
Voters' wrath? Policy change and government popularityGovernance
L. Bernardi, Daniel Bischof, R. Wouters (2020)
The public, the protester, and the bill: do legislative agendas respond to public opinion signals?Journal of European Public Policy, 28
Hanna Schwander, P. Manow (2016)
‘Modernize and Die’? German social democracy and the electoral consequences of the Agenda 2010Socio-economic Review, 15
B. Vis (2016)
Taking Stock of the Comparative Literature on the Role of Blame Avoidance Strategies in Social Policy ReformJournal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, 18
N. Giger (2011)
The Risk of Social Policy?: The electoral consequences of welfare state retrenchment and social policy performance in OECD countries
R. Duch, Randolph Stevenson (2010)
The Global Economy, Competency, and the Economic VoteThe Journal of Politics, 72
P. Dekker, P. Ester (1989)
Elite perceptions of mass preferences in The Netherlands; biases in cognitive responsivenessEuropean Journal of Political Research, 17
D. Hibbs (1977)
Political Parties and Macroeconomic PolicyAmerican Political Science Review, 71
J. Lindvall, David Rueda (2013)
The Insider–Outsider DilemmaBritish Journal of Political Science, 44
T. Duesterberg (1998)
Reforming the welfare stateSociety, 35
K. Okma (1998)
Dismantling the Welfare State? Reagan, Thatcher, and the Politics of RetrenchmentJournal of Health Politics Policy and Law, 23
Shaun Wilson, Gabrielle Meagher, K. Hermes (2012)
The social division of welfare knowledge: Policy stratification and perceptions of welfare reform in AustraliaPolicy and Politics, 40
James Adams, M. Clark, L. Ezrow, Garrett Glasgow (2004)
Understanding Change and Stability in Party Ideologies: Do Parties Respond to Public Opinion or to Past Election Results?British Journal of Political Science, 34
K. Kersbergen (1995)
Social Capitalism: A Study of Christian Democracy and the Welfare State
Marius Busemeyer, Julian Garritzmann (2017)
Public opinion on policy and budgetary trade-offs in European welfare states: evidence from a new comparative surveyJournal of European Public Policy, 24
Gijs Schumacher, B. Vis, Kees Kersbergen (2013)
Political parties’ welfare image, electoral punishment and welfare state retrenchmentComparative European Politics, 11
Kirk Bansak, Michael Bechtel, Yotam Margalit (2019)
Why Austerity? The Mass Politics of a Contested PolicyAmerican Political Science Review, 115
Georg Wenzelburger, C. Jensen, S. Lee, C. Arndt (2019)
How governments strategically time welfare state reform legislation: empirical evidence from five European countriesWest European Politics, 43
C. Arndt (2013)
The Electoral Consequences of Third Way Welfare State Reforms: Social Democracy’s Transformation and its Political Costs
Steffen Mau (2004)
Welfare Regimes and the Norms of Social ExchangeCurrent Sociology, 52
David Rueda (2005)
Insider–Outsider Politics in Industrialized Democracies: The Challenge to Social Democratic PartiesAmerican Political Science Review, 99
J. Clasen, N. Siegel (2007)
Investigating Welfare State Change
C. Green-Pedersen (2004)
The Dependent Variable Problem within the Study of Welfare State Retrenchment: Defining the Problem and Looking for SolutionsJournal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, 6
Alexander Horn (2020)
The asymmetric long-term electoral consequences of unpopular reforms: why retrenchment really is a losing game for left partiesJournal of European Public Policy, 28
Evelyne Huebscher, T. Sattler, Markus Wagner (2018)
Voter Responses to Fiscal AusterityBritish Journal of Political Science, 51
C. Jensen, Georg Wenzelburger (2021)
Welfare state reforms and mass media attention: Evidence from three European democraciesEuropean Journal of Political Research
S. Hobolt, James Tilley (2016)
Fleeing the centre: the rise of challenger parties in the aftermath of the euro crisisWest European Politics, 39
Silja Häusermann, G. Picot, D. Geering (2010)
Review Article: Rethinking Party Politics and the Welfare State – Recent Advances in the LiteratureBritish Journal of Political Science, 43
B. Bremer, Swen Hutter, Hanspeter Kriesi (2020)
Dynamics of protest and electoral politics in the Great RecessionEuropean Journal of Political Research
The expectation that welfare retrenchment and expansion have electoral consequences for governing parties is widespread in welfare state research. Previous research either argues that welfare state change has electoral consequences across the board or that this is at least the case under certain conditions, such as a left party in government. In this study, we synthesize existing theoretical approaches into a stylized theoretical model and discuss why the assumptions underlying the electoral consequences argument may be questionable. We then conduct an empirical analysis of the electoral fates of government parties in 20 European countries. A wide range of statistical specifications provide practically no evidence for electoral consequences of welfare state changes even under favorable conditions. The importance of welfare changes for electoral outcomes may therefore be overstated.
Journal of European Public Policy – Taylor & Francis
Published: Aug 3, 2023
Keywords: Economic voting; partisan theory; political behavior; retrospective voting; welfare expansion; welfare retrenchment
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.