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The electoral consequences of welfare state changes: a sober look at theory and evidence

The electoral consequences of welfare state changes: a sober look at theory and evidence The expectation that welfare retrenchment and expansion have electoral consequences for governing parties is widespread in welfare state research. Previous research either argues that welfare state change has electoral consequences across the board or that this is at least the case under certain conditions, such as a left party in government. In this study, we synthesize existing theoretical approaches into a stylized theoretical model and discuss why the assumptions underlying the electoral consequences argument may be questionable. We then conduct an empirical analysis of the electoral fates of government parties in 20 European countries. A wide range of statistical specifications provide practically no evidence for electoral consequences of welfare state changes even under favorable conditions. The importance of welfare changes for electoral outcomes may therefore be overstated. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of European Public Policy Taylor & Francis

The electoral consequences of welfare state changes: a sober look at theory and evidence

Journal of European Public Policy , Volume 30 (8): 24 – Aug 3, 2023
24 pages

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References (61)

Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Copyright
© 2022 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
ISSN
1466-4429
eISSN
1350-1763
DOI
10.1080/13501763.2022.2096669
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The expectation that welfare retrenchment and expansion have electoral consequences for governing parties is widespread in welfare state research. Previous research either argues that welfare state change has electoral consequences across the board or that this is at least the case under certain conditions, such as a left party in government. In this study, we synthesize existing theoretical approaches into a stylized theoretical model and discuss why the assumptions underlying the electoral consequences argument may be questionable. We then conduct an empirical analysis of the electoral fates of government parties in 20 European countries. A wide range of statistical specifications provide practically no evidence for electoral consequences of welfare state changes even under favorable conditions. The importance of welfare changes for electoral outcomes may therefore be overstated.

Journal

Journal of European Public PolicyTaylor & Francis

Published: Aug 3, 2023

Keywords: Economic voting; partisan theory; political behavior; retrospective voting; welfare expansion; welfare retrenchment

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