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Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Nature Climate Change Springer Journals

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References (110)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © Springer Nature Limited 2022
ISSN
1758-678X
eISSN
1758-6798
DOI
10.1038/s41558-022-01349-x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information.

Journal

Nature Climate ChangeSpringer Journals

Published: May 1, 2022

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