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Tropical cyclone track and intensity prediction with a structure adjustable balanced vortex

Tropical cyclone track and intensity prediction with a structure adjustable balanced vortex Abstract A new Tropical Cyclone (TC) initialization method with the structure adjustable bogus vortex was applied to the forecasts of track, central pressure, and wind intensity for the 417 TCs observed in the Western North Pacific during the 3-year period of 2005–2007. In the simulations the Final Analyses (FNL) with 1° × 1° resolution of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were incorporated as initial conditions. The present method was shown to produce improved forecasts over those without the TC initialization and those made by Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo. The average track (central pressure, wind intensity) errors were as small as 78.0 km (11.4 hPa, 4.9 m s−1) and 139.9 km (12.4 hPa, 5.5 m s−1) for 24-h and 48-h forecasts, respectively. It was found that the forecast errors are almost independent on the size and intensity of the observed TCs because the size and intensity of the bogus vortex can be adjusted to fit the best track data. The results of this study indicate that a bogus method is useful in predicting simultaneously the track, central pressure, and intensity with accuracy using a dynamical forecast model. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png "Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences" Springer Journals

Tropical cyclone track and intensity prediction with a structure adjustable balanced vortex

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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
2011 Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Netherlands
ISSN
1976-7633
eISSN
1976-7951
DOI
10.1007/s13143-011-0018-7
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Abstract A new Tropical Cyclone (TC) initialization method with the structure adjustable bogus vortex was applied to the forecasts of track, central pressure, and wind intensity for the 417 TCs observed in the Western North Pacific during the 3-year period of 2005–2007. In the simulations the Final Analyses (FNL) with 1° × 1° resolution of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were incorporated as initial conditions. The present method was shown to produce improved forecasts over those without the TC initialization and those made by Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo. The average track (central pressure, wind intensity) errors were as small as 78.0 km (11.4 hPa, 4.9 m s−1) and 139.9 km (12.4 hPa, 5.5 m s−1) for 24-h and 48-h forecasts, respectively. It was found that the forecast errors are almost independent on the size and intensity of the observed TCs because the size and intensity of the bogus vortex can be adjusted to fit the best track data. The results of this study indicate that a bogus method is useful in predicting simultaneously the track, central pressure, and intensity with accuracy using a dynamical forecast model.

Journal

"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences"Springer Journals

Published: May 1, 2011

References