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The need for UN climate change policy reformation

The need for UN climate change policy reformation This paper endeavours to understand the climate change phenomenon and identify measures taken to contain it. It discusses global warming causes and consequences and assesses effectiveness of the United Nations (UN) polices following failure of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In pursuing this course of action, this paper utilizes data collected from East Africa region. Key issues discussed in the paper include findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the role of urbanization in global warming as cities emit most of greenhouse gases. Special reference is made to developing cities which are growing extremely fast and will consume more energy in future. They are becoming economic engines and adopting industrialization as an economic model while developed cities are experiencing de-industrialization. Developing cities have neither the ability to adopt green technology nor the capacity to establish large capacity public transport systems to reduce carbon dioxide (CO ) emissions. It is evident that UN efforts to combat climate change are not effective because past experience shows that CO generation cuts weren’t near enough. The recent Paris Agreement may restore a faith in UN process if implemented but doesn’t reduce temperatures as needed unless all drivers of climate variability are considered, particularly the abortive role of developing cities. The UN Programme appears to be focusing on attaining urban resilience rather than targeting grassroots causes. Urbane-bias global policies drive the rural population to leave their land and flood cities while over-usage of natural resources by the rich is left unchecked. A new UN strategy making the countryside a more appealing place to live in and work whilst normalising urban growth is needed as well as mobilizing local leaders who enjoy more autonomy to enact regulations. It should also alleviate poverty, deter excessive practices and put science and technology under community control. Keywords: Climate change, Global warming, Energy, CO , GHGs, Cities, Urbanisation, IPCC, COP, UN Introduction nitrous oxides, chlorofluorocarbon and halocarbons. A Global warming and its consequences stronger greenhouse effect will warm the oceans and par- Scientists have spent decades searching the causes of global tially melt glaciers causing the sea level to rise. Ocean water warming and the consequential climate change, and now it also will expand if it warms, contributing further to sea is widely believed that natural and anthropogenic sub- level rise. Warmer conditions will probably lead to more stances and processes that alter the Earth’senergybudget evaporation and precipitation overall, but this may vary at are drivers of climate change (CC). Radiative forcing (RF) individual regions, some becoming wetter while others be- quantifies the change in energy fluxes caused by changes in come dryer. Currently, extreme weather events in different these drivers. The total RF is positive, and has led to an parts of the globe such as extreme precipitation rate, severe uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contri- draughts, floods, hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are fre- bution to total RF is caused by the increase in the atmos- quent and increasing in ferocity and frequency according to pheric concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and reports presented to the Conferences of the Parties (COP). Aerosols including carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, Also, satellite images and research findings have revealed that the ice caps are melting faster and our sea levels are rising higher. Correspondence: shbannaga@yahoo.com Physical Environmental Centre of Khartoum, 471, Mamoun Behairy St. (63rd street) Alamarat, PO Box 2256, Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan © 2016 Bannaga. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 2 of 13 Cities and towns are heavily vulnerable to climate change average of the 1850–1900 period and the 2003–2012 where hundreds of millions of people in urban areas across period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] °C. the world will be affected by rising sea levels, increased  Continued emissions of GHGs cause further precipitation, inland floods, more frequent and stronger warming and change in all components of the cyclones and storms. climate system and limiting climate change effects will require substantial and sustained reductions of Findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate GHGs emissions. Change (IPCC)  The ocean has absorbed about 30 % of the emitted The IPCC was established in 1988 by the United Nations anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World acidification Meteorological Organization (WMO) in order to provide scientific view based on the information, observations The above findings are in agreement with Met Office and data available on CC and its impact on the environ- of Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit [2] which ment and socio- economic conditions worldwide (IPCC stated that the total increase in temperature between the website [1]). Apart from IPCC, the gateway to the UN average of the 1850–1900 period and the 2003–2012 systems and links to the UN Partners on climate change, period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] °C as indicated in Fig. 1 including UNEP, WMO, United Nations Framework IPCC anticipates that global surface temperature change Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and United for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5 °C Nations Development Programme (UNDP) are all work- relative to the 1850 – 1900 period. This will be caused by ing on projects to mitigate the effect of climate change. a combination of the continued growth in most GHG The findings of IPCC on climate change were ac- concentrations, particularly CO noting that cumulative cepted in its second assessment in 1995. Since then it anthropogenic CO emissions have accumulated in the at- has been undeniable that the Earth’s climate is warm- mosphere, in natural terrestrial ecosystems and have been ing, which is evident from models and observations at taken up by the ocean. The atmospheric concentrations of global and continental levels, IPCC [1]. According to carbon dioxide have increased to unprecedented levels as IPCC Report of 2013: indicated by Fig. 2, produced by the IPCC According to IPCC report (IPCC website [1]), the con- The globally averaged combined land and ocean centration of CO in 2011 was 391 parts per million surface temperature data show a warming of 0.85 (ppm), rising from 280 ppm in 1750. The average annual [0.65 to 1.06] °C. The total increase between the concentration of CO in the atmosphere at present Fig. 1 Global Average Tempreture Anomaly (1850-2015) Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 3 of 13 the efforts made to mitigate it. This is also mirrored in the 5th report of IPCC which was produced in October 2013. The vital role of urbanization in global warming Intensive Emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) is cities’ trend Cities, which are driven by energy, have been incessantly burning fossil fuel and similar nonrenewable energy prod- ucts which are the major sources of GHGs- leading to global warming and the consequential trends of climate variations. These are significantly intensifying the severity of the great sufferings of our time. Cities use energy in Fig. 2 Source: IPCC Report on CC - the Physical Science Basis, 2013 transportation, electricity generation, industry and many activities including activities at homes, workplaces and their (2014) is 398.55 ppm, 0.522 % up from 2013 figures and usage is associated with increased rates of energy consump- since 1990, worldwide yearly emissions have gone up by tion amounting to several times greater than villages. about 6 billion metric tons of “carbon dioxide equiva- Khartoum city energy consumption for example amounts lent”, more than a 20 % increase. to 70-75 % of total Sudan national energy consumption The values of annual CO concentrations provided by despite the fact that it accommodates less than 20 % of the the IPCC Report are in conformity with the values pro- Sudanese population. duced by Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) [3] Anna Tibaijuka [4], Executive Director of UN-HABITAT, of US Department of Commerce which are exhibited in addressed the High Level Plenary in Bali (COP 13), and Table 1. This laboratory has grown to become the prem- stated that three-quarters of global energy consumption ier long-term atmospheric monitoring facility and it is a occur in cities, and an equally significant proportion of credible laboratory for measuring the concentrations of GHGs emissions are produced by these cities. Hoornweg global atmospheric carbon dioxide. who is the lead urban specialist at the World Bank, at al [5] It can be observed from ESTL figures that the annual in- considered the majority of total global energy to be con- crease in CO concentration in the period 1959 to 2006 sumed by cities and that more than 80 % of greenhouse gas was at 1.4 ppm, while this value has increased to 2.1 ppm emissions was produced by urban centres. in the period from 2006 to 2014. This clearly indicates that According to the European Institute for Energy Research therateofCO concentration is increasing, regardless of all (EIFER) [6] cities are responsible for the largest consump- tion of energy resources worldwide – between 60 to 80 % – and account for a roughly equal share of global CO2 Table 1 Annual trend of Carbon Dioxide (CO ) concentrations emissions. as measured by the Earth System Research Laboratory The International Energy Agency (IEA) [7] stated that Year CO Notes (ppm) carbon dioxide emissions from energy use in cities grows 2015 400.38 by 1 8 % per year (versus 1 6 % globally) under business- as-usual scenarios between 2006 and 2030, with the 2014 398.55 share of global CO from cities rising from 71 to 76 % as 2013 396.48 shown on Fig. 3 2012 393.82 Another contributor to GHG effect is the “Dust Domes 2011 391.63 and Heat Island Effects”, a local mega city phenomenon 2010 389.85 called the “Urban Microclimate”, which usually evolves as a 2009 387.37 Copenhagen Accord result of city intensive industrialization, its location charac- teristics and the population habits. The dust clouds and 2008 385.59 smoke that hang over the city in the biosphere and accu- 2007 383.76 mulate in the air (sink) don’t disappear except at great alti- 2006 381.90 tudes and thus - form smog. The suspended particulates 1997 363.71 Kyoto Protocol and the smoke together with water vapour, create an 1992 356.38 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro “urban dust dome” or what is known as ‘Urban Heat Island 1987 349.16 The year when the annual CO level was less than Effect’ or ’Greenhouse Effect’.The term “Urban heat islan- 350 ppm d”(UHI) describes urban built up areas that are hotter than 1959 315.97 The first year with a full year of instrument data nearby rural since cities surfaces are prone to release large Source of Annual CO2 Data: NOAA-ESRL Data File Created January 6, 2015 quantities of heat. The temperaturedifferenceisusually Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 4 of 13 Fig. 3 World CO Generation and share of Cities in global CO Emissions 2 2 greatest at night, and is most apparent when winds are produced in 2001 by UN-HABITAT [8]- it - shows that weak. The main cause of the urban heat island effect is per capita production in a developing city may reach from the modification of land surfaces. However, it is un- 500 % compared to its country national average GDP/ likely that any uncorrected urban heat island and land use Capita as the case in Kinshasa, Congo. change effects have raised the estimated centennial globally According to Richard Dobbs and others [9] from averaged land surface air temperature trends by more than McKisey Global Institute 80 % of the global economic 10 % of the reported trend as considered by scientists. This production takes place in urban areas. is an average value; in some regions that have rapidly devel- When considering cities’ energy consuming activities oped urban heat island and land use change impacts on as integral parts of the process of urbanization, the is- regional trends may be substantially larger. sues of: Therefore, since cities drive the vast majority of the world’s energy use and are major contributors to global  Transportation is of particular importance in GHG emissions it is obvious that cities are the prime countries where motor vehicle ownership is driver of global warming. Thus, climate change is a cre- expanding rapidly. The increased dependence on ation of cities and the frontier in the fight against climate private motorized vehicles is a major source of change lie on normalizing urban growth and developing urban GHG emissions the countryside to sustain rural life for the people who  Engineering networks are essential. They add to the work the land and perform reforestation. This is because sources of GHGs since they constitute a large cities will continue to consume energy and generate CO percentage of energy used from power generators. as discussed in the following paragraphs. These networks include electricity supply, production and distribution of fresh water, Cities are economic engines collection and treatment of wastewater, and the Developed cities are known for their high economic con- reclaimed water recycling and discharge, collection tributions including developing cities which are becom- of solid waste etc. ing hubs of economic activity and despite their weakness  Industrial activity is very significant because it and the high rates of their residents’ unemployment, increases the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, they still offer daily activities for the residents’ life and mainly in the form of carbon dioxide, primarily from are the main places for production and economic burning fossil fuels for different manufacturing growth. Cities are normally more productive than rural activities. It has to be noted that many polluting and areas in the same countries. They are concentrating dis- carbon intensive manufacturing processes have now proportional parts of the economy, resource consump- been sited elsewhere in developing cities to take tion and the decision making power in most countries. advantage of lower labour costs and the relaxed Developed cities being the centre of industrial activities environmental regulations. Developing cities will or trade and transport they produce more than their therefore be in need of energy whether renewable or countries average as exhibited in Fig. 4. However, the not to catch-up with developed cities and serve their central role of cities in national economies is more sig- residents. Table 3 reflects the huge deficit in energy nificant in developing countries than in developed coun- consumption in most developing countries when tries. This is clearly emphasized in Table 2 which was compared to that of the developed ones. United Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 5 of 13 Fig. 4 Share of National Population and GDP in Key Cities in Developed Countries. Source: UN – HABITAT: The Economic Role of Cities States (US) or Canada presently consumes more people’s daily life and this contributes to carbon emissions, than 20 times that of an IGAD country. particularly cement manufacturing. Fuelwood from the countryside is another source of Loss of arable lands to urban development GHG, as many families consume charcoal and fuel wood Loss of forests and vegetation covers to urban development in households. For example, in Sudan, forests contribute is a continuous malpractice undertaken by cities which are to between 70 – 80 % of the total energy consumption, associated with endless sprawl because of the rapid annual urban growth, namely developing cities. Squatters are in- Table 3 Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita) in Selected cessantly encroaching on arable land that may previously Countries have been covered with vegetation – thereby reducing its Country name 2008 2009 2010 potential to absorb CO through trees and other plants that Australia 5779 5739 5593 collect CO from the atmosphere. Added to that is the con- Canada 7946 7434 7380 struction sector which is fundamentally impacted by Finland 6639 6227 6787 Iceland 16868 16905 16882 Table 2 Contribution of Cities to National GDPs Luxembourg 8610 7939 8343 City Population of the city Contribution to GDP vs. the state in Norway 6250 5831 6637 percentage United States 7488 7057 7164 Sao Paulo 10.5 % 19.5 % Benin 392 400 413 Buenos Aires 32.5 % 63.2 % Congo, Dem. Rep. 356 357 360 Dhaka, Each generates more than 200 Eritrea 137 142 142 Mumbai and percent higher GDP than their Khartoum population share Ethiopia 396 398 400 Addis Ababa Generates more than 360 Kenya 461 476 483 percent higher GDP than its Mozambique 421 428 436 population share Nepal 332 338 341 Hanoi Generates460 percent higher than its population share Senegal 261 270 272 Kinshasa Generates more than 500 Sudan 364 374 371 percent higher than its population share Tanzania 449 446 448 Source: UN – HABITAT: The Economic Role of Cities Source: IAE Statistics and World Bank Data Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 6 of 13 as it is the easiest way of producing energy for cooking. Rapid urban growth habitually could end up with ser- This results in deforestation in rural areas, causing per- ious social and environmental challenges, such as urban manent removal of trees from forests without planting poverty and various forms of pollution. In order to keep new ones and the consequential increase in levels of car- up with rapid urban expansion and urban population bon dioxide in the atmosphere because trees absorb growth, more resources and production are required. CO for photosynthesis. Agriculture is another cause of The ever-increasing production and consumption in cit- deforestation - farmers remove large number of trees to ies result in serious environmental problems in terms of increase acreage for crops and livestock, affecting the the pollution of air, water and land as well as the degrad- carbon cycle. ation of ecosystems. Also nearly all residents rely on inward flows of food and consumer goods that may result in GHG emissions Adoption of industrialization as a model of economic from areas outside the city growth by developing cities Developing cities are following the steps of the industrial Developing cities are growing extremely fast and so will ones and most of them prefer industrial development as a consume more energy means for economical growth. Developing countries have In 1970, 37 % of the world population resided in urban rushed for implementing industrial programmes despite areas. In 2014 this increased percentages have changed to the fact that they are well equipped for expansion in agri- 54 % as indicated in Fig. 5 produced by the Population cultural activities rather than for industrial development. Division of UN Department of Economic and Social This is because industrial products are more valuable and Affairs [10]. In 2030, the urban population is expected to profitable than agricultural commodities. grow and reach 60 % of the total population. The growth While manufacturing has declined in importance in is expected to be highest in the less developed countries developed countries, it has expanded rapidly in some de- as shown by Fig. 6 which is based on data from UN veloping countries. Countries such as Brazil, China, Department of Economic and Social Affairs [10]. India and South Africa – encouraged by economic and It is to be noted that more than 20 cities worldwide geopolitical changes – are now centres for global manu- are with a population exceeding 10 million, and the pat- facturing. Their industries have been intensified, ex- tern is on the increase particularly in less developed panded and their production is increased to meet the countries, as shown in Fig. 7. needs of the global market. Even the peripheral areas in It is noted that most of the mega-cities and large some cities in the developing world receive global fund- urban centers are growing in the South and that large ing, in terms of the high tech industries and other indus- cities such as Bangalore, Mexico City and Cairo are trial service, which are concentrated and developed found morphing into new spatial configurations in without feasibility studies or prior planning, as is cur- which they amalgamate other cities and towns of various rently happening in some cities of East Asia. sizes within their economic orbit. In other cases, two or more large cities, such as Mumbai and Delhi in India, Sao Paulo- and Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, or Ibadan-Lagos Inability to implement climate change mitigation and -Accra in Africa form transport corridors for the measures by developing cities purposes of industrial development, business services Developing cities are in need of the use of whatever and trade. source of energy. They can’t: Urban Rural Fig. 5 Urban and rural population of the world, 1950–2050. Source: World Urbanisation Prospects 2014 Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 7 of 13 Fig. 6 Rate of population growth in developed countries compared to less developed countries. Based on data from UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2001 Afford green technology despite the fact that the rates of private cars ownership in the developed countries is exceptionally high and more Poor countries are unable to implement policies that than tens times the rate in the developing countries. Ac- provide safe energy supply because of the prohibitive cording to Table 4, for example the number of motor vehi- cost envisaged for the reduction of GHGs which requires cles in some European countries e.g.; Finland and the use of alternate or renewable energy. They will not con- Unites State varies between 612 and 797 vehicles per 1000 sider using alternative energy unless it becomes afford- people respectively, while this number is in the range 3 - 27 able to their nations - they are in need to run their in Ethiopia and Sudan respectively. Large capacity systems factories and provide mobility to their urban dwellers such as trains, metros, transit rails, and large capacity buses which is already in limited supply. are not expected to operate in the near future, but instead - private vehicles utilization rates will increase because cities Establish large capacity public transport systems will not inhibit their use due to absence of alternatives. Nothing can be done by most developing countries to  Adopt “Compact City” model of physical solve the transportation problem – there is - insufficient development public transport capacity and low traffic speed in addition to a limited network of paved roads. Growth rates of private It is known that a negative correlation exists between vehicle ownership in the developing world continue to soar population density and atmospheric GHG emissions; Fig. 7 Population of the world Megacities. Source: http://www.megacitiesproject.org/images/perfect-chart.jpg Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 8 of 13 Table 4 Number of annual Deaths and Number of Vehicles for construction of cheap building forms and lack of develop- Some Countries in 2002 or 2004 ment control. In both cities the population density de- Country Number of deaths per Number of vehicles per creases by time as indicated in Table 5. 100’000 of population 1’000 persons In conclusion, when considering the above prevailing Australia 9.3 616 situations in developing cities and the expectation that Belgium 13.9 522 these cities become centres of powerful forces of eco- nomic growth and wealth so they will be expected soon Canada 9.3 585 to emit very large volumes of GHGs more than what de- Germany 8.8 572 veloped cities are generating. This argument is sup- Japan 7.4 677 ported by the circulated data produced by reputable Netherlands 6.7 427 agencies. According to data from Statista [11], three of UK 5.6 434 the largest five producers of CO emissions worldwide USA 15 779 in 2014, based on their share of global CO emissions and which were not expected to generate CO more Norway 7.7 559 2 than the industrial countries were China, India and Denmark 9.5 424 Brazil. The five largest producers were China 23.4 %, Costa Rica 20.1 162 USA 16.69 %, India 5.7 % - Russia 4.87 % and Brazil Colombia 24.2 67 4.17 %. Also, the evidences from the IEA Annual Re- Egypt 7.5 35 ports [12] - and the 2015 data on the Statista Website Thailand 21.0 280 show that the CO emissions of OECD countries dropped from 66.1 % in 1983 to 41 % in 2010 and - Ecuador 16.9 47 38 % in 2012. The CO emission of Non-OECD Europe China 19 80 and Eurasia dropped from 16.2 % in 1973 to reach 8.6 % Panama 16.4 112 in 2012 while the CO emissions of China increased Mauritius 14.7 195 from 5.9 % in 1973 to 24.1 % in 2010 and 26 % in 2012. Source:Compiled from different sources including World Report on Road The CO emissions of Africa have almost doubled from Traffic Injury, World Health Organisation, Geneva 2004 and World Bank 1973 at 1.8 % to 3.3 % in 2012, while that of Asia has Data, 2003 more than tripled, increasing from 3 to 11.6 % in 2012. spatially compact and mixed-use urban developments The CO emissions of Middle East have jumped from have generally significant benefits in terms of GHG emis- 0.8 % in 1973 to 5.2 % in 2012. In addition, the CO sions reduction. The development pattern adopted by the emissions of North America and Europe were almost majority of developing cities is urban sprawl which is equal to the rest of the world in 1990 but currently they contrary to ‘Compact City’ model resulting in reduction of are less than one third as indicated in Fig. 8 showing energy and services cost. The incessant displacement of that emissions from developing countries are constantly rural people, the continuous exodus towards cities; and increasing from year to year. the excessive expansion of makeshift settlements and un- Although they were not part of the binding framework controlled development produce huge subdivisions of to reduce emissions, the substantial emissions from sprawled physical development overwhelmed by poor Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa – has dwellers living in shanty settlements. The substantial hori- compelled them to take a more progressive role in inter- zontal expansion of Greater Khartoum in Sudan and national climate negotiations. Addis Ababa in Ethiopia is a typical example and has been For all the above reasons, climate change cannot be encouraged by abundance of land serviced with water, combated without the exertion of enough efforts by Table 5 Growth of the Physical Block and Population Density in Khartoum and Addis Ababa Year 1955 1970 1980 1984 1994 1998 2000 2002 2005 2006 2010 Population in (000) KRT 0250 0640 1170 4372 5139 5761 6010 7000 Total area in (ha) KRT 1680 3000 22840 80250 NA NA 132300 165000 population density in 149 213 51 55 NA NA 45 42 person/ha KRT Population in (000) ADDIS 036 1423 2113 2495 Total area in (ha) ADDIS 460 2240 4350 6154 population density in 783 635 486 405 person/ha ADDIS Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 9 of 13 Global Consumption of Carbon in 1990 Global Consumption of Carbon in 2001 North North America America 26% 22.5% Europe Europe 24.5% 22% Others Others 52% 53% Global Consumption of Carbon in 2010 Global Consumption of Carbon in 2013 North North America America 19% 19% Europe Europe 11% 14.4% Others Others 66.6% 70% Fig. 8 Global Consumption of CO2 for 1990, 2002, 2010 and 2013 for each Group of Countries. Source: Gathered from different sources developing cities or finding cheaper alternative energy emissions and removals, which were used to create the affordable to them. 1990 benchmark levels for accession of Annex I coun- tries to the Kyoto Protocol and for the commitment of UN efforts and their effectiveness in combating those countries to GHG reductions. Updated inventories climate change must be regularly submitted by Annex I countries. UN efforts to combat climate change The COP18/CMP8 meeting held in Doha, Qatar, in The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate November - December 2012 was considered fruitful since Change (UNFCCC), is an international environmental it opened up a new gateway driving governments to take treaty, and its objective is to “stabilize GHG concentrations the essential steps in the global response to climate in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous change. Countries in Doha endorsed the completion of anthropogenicinterferencewiththe climatesystem”.The new institutions and agreed ways and means to deliver treaty provides a framework for negotiating specific inter- scaled-up climate finance and technology to developing national treaties called “protocols” that may set binding countries and are committed to implement COP18/CMP8 limits on GHGs. The parties to the convention have met as follow: annually from 1995 in Conferences of the Parties (COP) [13] to assess progress in dealing with climate change. In  Continue the Kyoto Protocol’s Market Mechanisms 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was concluded and established – the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint binding obligations for developed countries to reduce their Implementation (JI) and International Emissions GHG emissions. The Kyoto Protocol has had two commit- Trading (IET) as of 2013. ment periods, the first was in the period 2005-2012, and  Continue operating JI with the agreed technical the second is in the period 2012-2020. By the time the first rules allowing the issuance of credits, once a host commitment period expired on the 31st December 2012, country’s emissions target has been formally the Protocol had 83 signatories worldwide, unfortunately; established. only 55 of the original signatories ratified the agreement.  Speedily work toward a universal climate change The US is one of the largest polluters and among those agreement covering all countries from 2020, to be who did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol. adopted by 2015, to curb emissions so that the One of the first tasks set by the UNFCCC was for sig- world can stay below the agreed maximum 2 natory nations to establish national GHG inventories of degrees Celsius temperature rise. Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 10 of 13 Establish a pathway to provide the most vulnerable 3. Parties shall take into consideration in the populations with better protection against loss and implementation of Paris Agreement the concerns of damage caused by slow onset events such as rising Parties with economies most affected by the impacts sea levels. of response measures, particularly developing Implement national adaptation plans for least countries’ Parties. developed countries including linking funding and other support Ineffectiveness of UN current policies Further clarify ways to measure deforestation, and to Throughout the past years, polluting countries have an- ensure that efforts to fight deforestation are nounced individual commitments to cut carbon dioxide supported. emissions in hope these cuts will keep global temperatures from rising by more than 3.6 °F (2 °C) by 2100. The statis- The 20th COP took place in Peru in December 2014 tics show the pledged emission cuts aren’t anywhere near which gave way for the new 2015 agreement on climate enough to combat climate change. The recent Paris change to be signed in Paris and harnessed the action by Agreement may restore a faith in UN process if imple- all nations. mented but does not reduce temperatures as needed un- It should be noted that the overall processes of the less all the drivers of climate variability are considered and UNFCCC and the adopted Kyoto Protocol have been criti- in particular the abortive role of developing countries. cized by not having achieved its stated goals of reducing This is in addition to the defections expected from some the emission of carbon dioxide as discussed above. The polluting countries that may not fulfill their obligations if failure to achieve meaningful progress and reach effective their competitors are not complying. On Saturday 12 CO reducing-policy treaties among the parties over the December 2015 Professor James Hansen, Department of past eighteen years have driven some countries like the Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University US to never ratify the UNFCCC’s because according to and a leading climate scientist - credited as being the US the treaty didn’t cover developing countries which “father of climate change awareness” - denounced the some of them are now considered the largest CO emit- Paris Agreement. He told the Guardian, a British news ters. Other air polluting countries may follow US as re- paper, after the Paris Agreement was concluded that “as ported in COP documents but for different reasons. In long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out 2010 in Cancun, Japan stated that it will not sign up a sec- there, they will be continued to be burned”. The author ond Kyoto term, because it would impose restrictions on shares Professor Hansen’s opinion that developing coun- it not faced by its main economic competitors, China, tries will accelerate the rate of energy consumption and India and Indonesia. A similar indication was given by the this situation will prevail in the near future if preventive Prime Minister of New Zealand in November 2012 in measures are not imposed to control CO emissions by Doha. At the 2012 conference in Doha, last minute objec- these countries. Other reasons include: tions at the conference by Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan were ignored by the governing officials, and  UN Program appears to be concentrating on they have indicated that they will likely withdraw or not mitigating the impacts i.e. the symptoms of climate ratify the treaty. These defections place additional pres- change rather than targeting the main grassroots sures on the UNFCCC process. However, a positive atti- causes of climate variations. All UN efforts are tude was noticed in the Paris Agreement, which was primarily focused on assisting communities to cope concluded in the last minute of the COP 21 Conference. with adverse effects of climate change and mitigate The Paris Agreement, which has been adopted by 195 its impacts thus, engaging countries to climate countries, is the first-ever universal, legally binding glo- change adaptation through facilitation of a number bal climate deal. The most essential provisions of the of actions that reduce GHG emissions and improve agreement are: urban resilience. The main cause of climate change is that the World is making more cities than villages 1. Holding the increase in the global average and ruining the countryside by deforestation and temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial clearance of the vegetation covers. This levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature phenomenon is disturbing the environmental increase to 1.5 °C. balance of our ecosystems which is formed by a 2. Providing support to developing countries in community of animals, plants and microbes accordance with Articles 9, 10 and 11, recognizing performing the activities of living, feeding, that enhanced support for developing countries’ reproducing and interacting. The ecosystems are Parties will allow for higher ambition in their organized in a state of stability where species coexist actions. with other species and with their environment. This Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 11 of 13 balance is sustained by the relationship that exists crops, decreasing animals’ grazing areas and causing between all the components of an environment as poverty, death of livestock as well as triggering stated by the Great Creator “And the earth - We social, economic and political tensions and repetitive have spread it and cast therein firmly set mountains armed conflicts. It is known that the poor will and caused to grow therein [something] of every always be a threat to the environment through their well-balanced thing, Verse 19 of Al-Hijir. malpractices. Some go searching for firewood as it is the easiest way of producing energy for cooking Therefore, we ought to seek answers in the divine besides cutting the scattered trees for building their books descended by almighty the Great Creator who or- shacks, using the available few grass for roofing and dered and instructed mankind to keep this balance. forage for their animals. The outcome of this The Quran, the final revelation of God’s word among process is the uprooting of rural population and the four divine books states: “Disperse within the land”, further migration towards cities. Al- Jumua, (10). “My earth is spacious”, Al-Ankabut,  Urban bias global policies that encourage rapid (56). “And whoever emigrates for the cause of Allah will urbanisation have not been reformed to normalize find on the earth many [alternative] locations and abun- the process of urban growth. These include: dance”, Al-Nisa (100). Almighty also forbids mankind 1. The structural adjustments packages imposed by from being excessive. The Quran states: “Do not spend international financial institutions on the wastefully”, Al-Isra (26). “Eat from the good things with developing countries to integrate into the which We have provided you and do not transgress”,Ta- international economy have opened the door for Ha (81). “Children of Adam, take your adornment at the capitalist economic model and pave the way every masjid, and eat and drink, but be not excessive, for industrialization through utilization of science Al-A’raf (31). “And do not obey the order of the trans- and technology while retarding traditional gressors”, Ash-Shu’ara (151). “Then remember the fa- economies and agriculture. Also the multinational vours of Allah and do not commit abuse on the Earth”, giant companies increased their role and Al-A’raf (74) strengthened their power in the global The situation is better described by the Verse: ”Have economy..“Science and Technology” is almost in you not considered those who exchanged the grace of the hands of giant international companies and Allah for thankless and settled their people [in] the lack of control by the community is encouraging home of ruin”? Ibrahim (28) these companies to over-exploit resources for profit. UN has not yet fully mobilsed cities for Combating 2. The World Trade Organization and the current CC despite their spearhead role in this process and system of trade, monetary flows, production and the risks they are subjected to. Many cities have not consumption, allows few of the rich people to yet genuinely addressed climate change and increase their wealth at the expense of others. particularly developing cities. The reasons include Opportunities of exports from developing lack of capacity and resources in developing cities countries to the international markets are together with lack of public and local governance substantially reduced because cost of agricultural awareness on climate variability. In addition, one of production has increased. In addition, agricultural the key goals of urban sustainable development is to products produced by farmers in industrial promote energy and resource efficiency in the countries are subsidized and this lowers the building sector and to provide good, healthy and prices of agricultural commodities in the affordable buildings for people in cities and these international markets. have not been tackled in the majority of cities 3. Over-usage of natural resources through worldwide. The majority of these cities lack excessiveness of the rich is not checked. The implementation of relevant city policies and action basic environmental problem thus, facing plans; the prevailing regulations on urban humanity is the continual extravagant usage and development and environment have not been depletion of natural resources by developed adjusted to combat climate change. countries. On the other hand, giving assistance to UN policies together with climate change impacts the poor is seen by the rich as charity, not a right are driving rural populations to leave their land. or social justice. Since 1986, international Drought has affected the physical, social and organizations and the UN agencies have talked economic life of most African communities for about poverty reduction but in fact the poverty recurrent and prolong periods of droughts in some rate in developing cities has increased and the developing countries are now lowering the yield of rich countries have become richer. In Table 6, the Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 12 of 13 Table 6 Percentage of poor families in selected cities 1993/1998/2003 CITY Country Percentage of the Percentage of the Percentage of the poor families 1993 poor families 1998 poor families 2003 Porto Novo Benin 22 % 32 % 49 % Kigali Rwanda 65 % 50 % 52 % Dakar Senegal 38 % 13 % 55 % Mombassa Kenya 23.6 % 27.2 % 31.3 % Lagos Nigeria 53 % 66 % 62 % Sana’a Yemen 14 % 53 % 63 % Nairobi Kenya 20.8 % 30.0 % 41.1 % Kumasi Ghana 26 % 31 % 29 % Rio de Janeiro Brazil 17 % 19 % 30 % From different sources percentage of poor families in Porto Novo, Benin identified several ways through which plants can alter the has increased from22 % in 1993 to 49 % in 2003. temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere. The data are avail- Likewise the poverty figures have increased in able in one or more of NASA’sEarth ScienceDataCenters. Sana’a, Yemen from 14 % in 1993 to 63 % in 2003. Through the process of photosynthesis, plants use energy Even in countries with high GDP such as Nigeria, from the sun to draw down carbon dioxide from the at- the percentage of poor population in Lagos has mosphere. Plants also cool the landscape directly through increased from 53 % in 1993 to 62.5 % in 2003. In the transpiration process. They often release excess water Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, the poor families’ into the air from their leaves when the surrounding atmos- percentage increased from 17.5 % in 1993 to 30 % phere heats up and by releasing evaporated water, plants in 2003, as noted in the global urban Observatory cool themselves and the surrounding environment. [14] and World Bank reports [15]. It is worth mentioning that the concept of restoration 4. The UN has not pushed hard to implement good of the countryside environment should be engraved in governance worldwide to bring national the minds of those who draft UN Climate Change governments closer to people in developing Programme. countries so as to abandon policies triggering Financial support to developing countries alone is wars where fighting has been going on in a meaningless without reformation of the global and na- number of developing countries and some of tional policies that retard climate change combat. these wars are still raging because external forces It is high time that mobilisation of Sub-national stock them with arms and ammunition - the Governments is sought because cities and other local- result is uprooting of huge influxes of IDPS and ities can make up the difference since local leaders migrants who flood developing cities and desert often have more autonomy to enact regulations and the countryside. National governments shall also enforce government resolve. be aided to implement water harvesting projects Most importantly is to bring justice to all Earth inhabi- in arid regions and provide social and public tants by enforcing good governance worldwide, alleviat- services to keep native people in place ing poverty and pushing for a dramatic change in the developed nations’ lifestyle associated with excessiveness UN policy reformation while putting science and technology at community A major shift in climate change combat approach by UN, service state governments and the international community is ur- gently required. A new UN strategy targeting the main Endnote causes of climate change, which is the imbalance between This paper bears no endnotes. urban and rural environments, should be put in place sup- ported by sound policies that make the countryside a more Abbreviations appealing place to live in and work with the aim to CC: climate change; COP: Conferences of the Parties; EIFER: European normalize urban growth, restore rural life, promote refor- Institute for Energy Research EIFER; ESRL: Earth System Research Laboratory; GHGs: Greenhouse Gases; IEA: The International Energy Agency; estation and enhance eco-agriculture. Wolfgang Buermann IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; NOAA: National Oceanic [16], a geographer at Boston University, confirms that plant and Atmospheric Administration; PPM: parts per million; RF: radiative forcing; growth can have a considerable effect on the climate. He UNDP: United Nations Development Program; UNEP: United Nations Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 13 of 13 Environment Programme; UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention the Sudan University of Science and Technology, member of the Council of on Climate Change; WMO: World Meteorological Organization. Ministers’ Consulting Group, Chairman of two NGOs (Child Development Foundation, Sudan + The International Family Organisation, Sudan) and Deputy Chairman of Alsogya Charity Orgnization, Sudan. Competing interests The author has no interest and is not influenced by personal or financial Authors’ contributions relationship with other people or organizations. The paper is written by one author and no contribution made by another person. Author’s information Dr. Bannaga is a graduate of Loughborough University, UK with MSc and PhD Acknowledgements in 1974 and 1977, respectively and he was granted BSc from Faculty of The author acknowledges the effort exerted by Dr Sara Price, Barnsley Engineering, University of Khartoum in 1971. Hospital Gawber Rd, Barnsley, South Yorkshire S75 2EP, a native English HE started his practice in many international and national firms and doctor (medical) who corrected the text of this paper. institutions, in his early stages of practice, worked at the reputable international consultancy firm, Sir Alexander Gibb and Partners Consulting Received: 30 January 2016 Accepted: 21 March 2016 Engineers in London and supervised many international projects. Later he joined the Saudi Arabian National Guard in Riyadh in 1979 where he managed and supervised many housing and infrastructure projects for the References Saudi National Guards. After gaining great experiences, Dr. Bannaga joined 1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC WGI AR5 website www. the UN in mid eighties and worked as expert for UNDTCD and participated climatechange2013.org and website www.ipcc.ch and IPCC.ch/report/ar5, in regional planning projects and other engineering projects undertaken by 2014 and IPCC website (2015) the Physical Planning Agency, Ministry of Municipal & Rural Affaires, Riyadh 2. Met Office, Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit, 2015. “Global Average KSA. Temperature Anomaly (1850 September 2015). Sourced at Internet: www. In 1989 Sudan Government called Dr. Bannaga and appointed him a Minister metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/ of Engineering Affaires and later a Minister of Housing & Public Utilities- 3. Earth System Research Laboratory. Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Khartoum State until he left office in mid 2001. During his mandate he 2015. “Annual trend of Carbon Dioxide (CO ) concentrations”.Global achieved a lot of works that changed the face of Khartoum Capital; the first Monitoring Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and successful project was the re-planning & restructuring of the Greater Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),US Department of Commerce, The data is Khartoum urban structure and reallocation of urban functions which sourced at Internet: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html included slums upgrading and villages organization for absorption in the 4. Anna T (2006) UN-HABITAT Address at the High Level Plenary. COP13, Bali urban fabric as well as restructuring of the transportation network. In 1994 5. Daniel H, Lorraine S, Clauddia Lorena Trejos G (2011) Cities and greenhouse he was granted the Star of Achievement, the highest medal of the state gas emissions: moving forward. Environment & Urbanization, International offered to officials as a reward for his outstanding performance. He executed Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) XX(X):1–21, April 2011 the giant Housing Plan of Greater Khartoum which paved the way for all of Downloaded from eau.sagepub.com the metropolis citizens to settle. He was able to renew and expand the 6. European Institute for Energy Research EIFER {(FIFER), 2011. Overview – urban networking to cope with the burgeoning population which surpassed Energy Cities and Territories, 2001. EIFER Website https://www.eifer.kit.edu/- over five million at the time. One of Dr. Bannaga’s most known achievements energy-cities-and-territories in Khartoum is the construction of the Salvation and Menshia bridges that link 7. The International Energy Agency (IEA), 2009. Cities, Towns and Renewable the tri-capital cities, Khartoum, Khartoum North and Omdurman and upon this Energy, OECD/IEA, 2009 he was granted the medal of Sudan’s Loyal Son in 2000, the highest medal 8. UN-HABITAT (2011) The Economic Role of Cities, the Global Economic granted to the Sudanese by the state and he ranks number seven in the list Dialogue Series. United Nations Human Settlements Programme 2011, Nairobi comprising those granted since Independence Day (1/1/1956). 9. Richard Dobbs and Others, 2011. “Urban world: Mapping the economic It is worth mentioning that Dr. Bannaga has been rewarded by international power of cities”. McKisey Global Institute, March 2011) and regional institutions - he was granted the Prize of The British Institution 10. UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division). “World of Water Engineers & Scientists in 1979, the Arab Environmental Shield from Urbanisation Prospects 2014”. The 2014 Revision, Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/ Arabian Union for Youth and Environment, Arab League in 1996, the Honorary 352) and “World Population Growth 1950 – 2020” World Urbanization Doctorate from the University of Juba, South Sudan in 1999, and the Honorary Prospects, the 2001 Revision Doctorate from the University of Khartoum in 2001. 11. Statista Website (2015): Databases Available online at www.Statista.com Dr. Bannaga is a recognized professional engineer. He is a Fellow of the 12. IEA Annual Reports, 2012-2014. “Key World Energy Statistics, 2012-2013 and 2014” British Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management- CIWEM, 13. COPs: The 18th, 19th and 20th Sessions of the Conference of the Parties to Fellow of the Sudan Engineering Society and Chairman of its cultural the UNFCCC and in particular the 18th session of the Conference of the committee. He is a member of the International Society of City and Regional Parties, held in Qatar National Convention Centre, Doha, Qatar on 26 Planners- ISOCARP, the World Society of Sustainable Energy Technology- WSSET November to 8 December, 2012. and was member of the British Institution of Water Engineers and Scientists- 14. UN-HABITAT (2007-14). Global Urban Observatory. IWES, the British Institution of Public Health Engineers, and the American Society 15. World Bank Report (2001-2015) available online at http://www.worldbank.org of Civil Engineers – ASCE and 16. Buermann, W., Y. Wang, 2002. “How Plants Can Change Our Climate”. NASA He published too many papers and articles in reputable scientific journals Earth Observatory, 6 May 2002.Available at NASA's Earth Science Data and was rewarded by IWES in 1979. The majority of the papers provides Centers. knowledge on water, urbanization and the physical environment. He edited eight books on urbanization, lands and human settlements covering primarily Greater Khartoum and the IGAD Sub-African region and five of them have been published by Zurich University (ETH: Swiss Federal Institute). These include: Treatment of Squatter Settlements, Reorganization of Villages and Reallocation of Urban Functions, Khartoum – a Profile of Urban Housing, the Displaced and Peace in Sudan, the Homeless Masses at Home, IGAD Region. Other books include Management of Islamic Cities between the Visions of Today and the Islamic Doctrine, Land Right of Use and Management Paradigm and the Salvation Bridge. He chaired a committee that edited several books on similar subjects for the Sudanese Council of Ministers. Dr. Bannaga is currently the President of the Organizing Council for Consultancy Firms - OCCF, Sudan, and the Chairman & Executive Director of the consultancy firm - “Bannaga Consult”. He is an associated professor, at http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Future Cities and Environment Springer Journals

The need for UN climate change policy reformation

Bannaga, Sharaf
Future Cities and Environment , Volume 2 (1) – Apr 1, 2016
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Springer Journals
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Copyright © 2016 by The Author(s)
Subject
Energy; Energy Efficiency (incl. Buildings); Renewable and Green Energy; Energy Technology; Landscape/Regional and Urban Planning
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2363-9075
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10.1186/s40984-016-0015-1
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Abstract

This paper endeavours to understand the climate change phenomenon and identify measures taken to contain it. It discusses global warming causes and consequences and assesses effectiveness of the United Nations (UN) polices following failure of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In pursuing this course of action, this paper utilizes data collected from East Africa region. Key issues discussed in the paper include findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the role of urbanization in global warming as cities emit most of greenhouse gases. Special reference is made to developing cities which are growing extremely fast and will consume more energy in future. They are becoming economic engines and adopting industrialization as an economic model while developed cities are experiencing de-industrialization. Developing cities have neither the ability to adopt green technology nor the capacity to establish large capacity public transport systems to reduce carbon dioxide (CO ) emissions. It is evident that UN efforts to combat climate change are not effective because past experience shows that CO generation cuts weren’t near enough. The recent Paris Agreement may restore a faith in UN process if implemented but doesn’t reduce temperatures as needed unless all drivers of climate variability are considered, particularly the abortive role of developing cities. The UN Programme appears to be focusing on attaining urban resilience rather than targeting grassroots causes. Urbane-bias global policies drive the rural population to leave their land and flood cities while over-usage of natural resources by the rich is left unchecked. A new UN strategy making the countryside a more appealing place to live in and work whilst normalising urban growth is needed as well as mobilizing local leaders who enjoy more autonomy to enact regulations. It should also alleviate poverty, deter excessive practices and put science and technology under community control. Keywords: Climate change, Global warming, Energy, CO , GHGs, Cities, Urbanisation, IPCC, COP, UN Introduction nitrous oxides, chlorofluorocarbon and halocarbons. A Global warming and its consequences stronger greenhouse effect will warm the oceans and par- Scientists have spent decades searching the causes of global tially melt glaciers causing the sea level to rise. Ocean water warming and the consequential climate change, and now it also will expand if it warms, contributing further to sea is widely believed that natural and anthropogenic sub- level rise. Warmer conditions will probably lead to more stances and processes that alter the Earth’senergybudget evaporation and precipitation overall, but this may vary at are drivers of climate change (CC). Radiative forcing (RF) individual regions, some becoming wetter while others be- quantifies the change in energy fluxes caused by changes in come dryer. Currently, extreme weather events in different these drivers. The total RF is positive, and has led to an parts of the globe such as extreme precipitation rate, severe uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contri- draughts, floods, hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are fre- bution to total RF is caused by the increase in the atmos- quent and increasing in ferocity and frequency according to pheric concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and reports presented to the Conferences of the Parties (COP). Aerosols including carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, Also, satellite images and research findings have revealed that the ice caps are melting faster and our sea levels are rising higher. Correspondence: shbannaga@yahoo.com Physical Environmental Centre of Khartoum, 471, Mamoun Behairy St. (63rd street) Alamarat, PO Box 2256, Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan © 2016 Bannaga. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 2 of 13 Cities and towns are heavily vulnerable to climate change average of the 1850–1900 period and the 2003–2012 where hundreds of millions of people in urban areas across period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] °C. the world will be affected by rising sea levels, increased  Continued emissions of GHGs cause further precipitation, inland floods, more frequent and stronger warming and change in all components of the cyclones and storms. climate system and limiting climate change effects will require substantial and sustained reductions of Findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate GHGs emissions. Change (IPCC)  The ocean has absorbed about 30 % of the emitted The IPCC was established in 1988 by the United Nations anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World acidification Meteorological Organization (WMO) in order to provide scientific view based on the information, observations The above findings are in agreement with Met Office and data available on CC and its impact on the environ- of Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit [2] which ment and socio- economic conditions worldwide (IPCC stated that the total increase in temperature between the website [1]). Apart from IPCC, the gateway to the UN average of the 1850–1900 period and the 2003–2012 systems and links to the UN Partners on climate change, period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] °C as indicated in Fig. 1 including UNEP, WMO, United Nations Framework IPCC anticipates that global surface temperature change Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and United for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5 °C Nations Development Programme (UNDP) are all work- relative to the 1850 – 1900 period. This will be caused by ing on projects to mitigate the effect of climate change. a combination of the continued growth in most GHG The findings of IPCC on climate change were ac- concentrations, particularly CO noting that cumulative cepted in its second assessment in 1995. Since then it anthropogenic CO emissions have accumulated in the at- has been undeniable that the Earth’s climate is warm- mosphere, in natural terrestrial ecosystems and have been ing, which is evident from models and observations at taken up by the ocean. The atmospheric concentrations of global and continental levels, IPCC [1]. According to carbon dioxide have increased to unprecedented levels as IPCC Report of 2013: indicated by Fig. 2, produced by the IPCC According to IPCC report (IPCC website [1]), the con- The globally averaged combined land and ocean centration of CO in 2011 was 391 parts per million surface temperature data show a warming of 0.85 (ppm), rising from 280 ppm in 1750. The average annual [0.65 to 1.06] °C. The total increase between the concentration of CO in the atmosphere at present Fig. 1 Global Average Tempreture Anomaly (1850-2015) Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 3 of 13 the efforts made to mitigate it. This is also mirrored in the 5th report of IPCC which was produced in October 2013. The vital role of urbanization in global warming Intensive Emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) is cities’ trend Cities, which are driven by energy, have been incessantly burning fossil fuel and similar nonrenewable energy prod- ucts which are the major sources of GHGs- leading to global warming and the consequential trends of climate variations. These are significantly intensifying the severity of the great sufferings of our time. Cities use energy in Fig. 2 Source: IPCC Report on CC - the Physical Science Basis, 2013 transportation, electricity generation, industry and many activities including activities at homes, workplaces and their (2014) is 398.55 ppm, 0.522 % up from 2013 figures and usage is associated with increased rates of energy consump- since 1990, worldwide yearly emissions have gone up by tion amounting to several times greater than villages. about 6 billion metric tons of “carbon dioxide equiva- Khartoum city energy consumption for example amounts lent”, more than a 20 % increase. to 70-75 % of total Sudan national energy consumption The values of annual CO concentrations provided by despite the fact that it accommodates less than 20 % of the the IPCC Report are in conformity with the values pro- Sudanese population. duced by Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) [3] Anna Tibaijuka [4], Executive Director of UN-HABITAT, of US Department of Commerce which are exhibited in addressed the High Level Plenary in Bali (COP 13), and Table 1. This laboratory has grown to become the prem- stated that three-quarters of global energy consumption ier long-term atmospheric monitoring facility and it is a occur in cities, and an equally significant proportion of credible laboratory for measuring the concentrations of GHGs emissions are produced by these cities. Hoornweg global atmospheric carbon dioxide. who is the lead urban specialist at the World Bank, at al [5] It can be observed from ESTL figures that the annual in- considered the majority of total global energy to be con- crease in CO concentration in the period 1959 to 2006 sumed by cities and that more than 80 % of greenhouse gas was at 1.4 ppm, while this value has increased to 2.1 ppm emissions was produced by urban centres. in the period from 2006 to 2014. This clearly indicates that According to the European Institute for Energy Research therateofCO concentration is increasing, regardless of all (EIFER) [6] cities are responsible for the largest consump- tion of energy resources worldwide – between 60 to 80 % – and account for a roughly equal share of global CO2 Table 1 Annual trend of Carbon Dioxide (CO ) concentrations emissions. as measured by the Earth System Research Laboratory The International Energy Agency (IEA) [7] stated that Year CO Notes (ppm) carbon dioxide emissions from energy use in cities grows 2015 400.38 by 1 8 % per year (versus 1 6 % globally) under business- as-usual scenarios between 2006 and 2030, with the 2014 398.55 share of global CO from cities rising from 71 to 76 % as 2013 396.48 shown on Fig. 3 2012 393.82 Another contributor to GHG effect is the “Dust Domes 2011 391.63 and Heat Island Effects”, a local mega city phenomenon 2010 389.85 called the “Urban Microclimate”, which usually evolves as a 2009 387.37 Copenhagen Accord result of city intensive industrialization, its location charac- teristics and the population habits. The dust clouds and 2008 385.59 smoke that hang over the city in the biosphere and accu- 2007 383.76 mulate in the air (sink) don’t disappear except at great alti- 2006 381.90 tudes and thus - form smog. The suspended particulates 1997 363.71 Kyoto Protocol and the smoke together with water vapour, create an 1992 356.38 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro “urban dust dome” or what is known as ‘Urban Heat Island 1987 349.16 The year when the annual CO level was less than Effect’ or ’Greenhouse Effect’.The term “Urban heat islan- 350 ppm d”(UHI) describes urban built up areas that are hotter than 1959 315.97 The first year with a full year of instrument data nearby rural since cities surfaces are prone to release large Source of Annual CO2 Data: NOAA-ESRL Data File Created January 6, 2015 quantities of heat. The temperaturedifferenceisusually Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 4 of 13 Fig. 3 World CO Generation and share of Cities in global CO Emissions 2 2 greatest at night, and is most apparent when winds are produced in 2001 by UN-HABITAT [8]- it - shows that weak. The main cause of the urban heat island effect is per capita production in a developing city may reach from the modification of land surfaces. However, it is un- 500 % compared to its country national average GDP/ likely that any uncorrected urban heat island and land use Capita as the case in Kinshasa, Congo. change effects have raised the estimated centennial globally According to Richard Dobbs and others [9] from averaged land surface air temperature trends by more than McKisey Global Institute 80 % of the global economic 10 % of the reported trend as considered by scientists. This production takes place in urban areas. is an average value; in some regions that have rapidly devel- When considering cities’ energy consuming activities oped urban heat island and land use change impacts on as integral parts of the process of urbanization, the is- regional trends may be substantially larger. sues of: Therefore, since cities drive the vast majority of the world’s energy use and are major contributors to global  Transportation is of particular importance in GHG emissions it is obvious that cities are the prime countries where motor vehicle ownership is driver of global warming. Thus, climate change is a cre- expanding rapidly. The increased dependence on ation of cities and the frontier in the fight against climate private motorized vehicles is a major source of change lie on normalizing urban growth and developing urban GHG emissions the countryside to sustain rural life for the people who  Engineering networks are essential. They add to the work the land and perform reforestation. This is because sources of GHGs since they constitute a large cities will continue to consume energy and generate CO percentage of energy used from power generators. as discussed in the following paragraphs. These networks include electricity supply, production and distribution of fresh water, Cities are economic engines collection and treatment of wastewater, and the Developed cities are known for their high economic con- reclaimed water recycling and discharge, collection tributions including developing cities which are becom- of solid waste etc. ing hubs of economic activity and despite their weakness  Industrial activity is very significant because it and the high rates of their residents’ unemployment, increases the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, they still offer daily activities for the residents’ life and mainly in the form of carbon dioxide, primarily from are the main places for production and economic burning fossil fuels for different manufacturing growth. Cities are normally more productive than rural activities. It has to be noted that many polluting and areas in the same countries. They are concentrating dis- carbon intensive manufacturing processes have now proportional parts of the economy, resource consump- been sited elsewhere in developing cities to take tion and the decision making power in most countries. advantage of lower labour costs and the relaxed Developed cities being the centre of industrial activities environmental regulations. Developing cities will or trade and transport they produce more than their therefore be in need of energy whether renewable or countries average as exhibited in Fig. 4. However, the not to catch-up with developed cities and serve their central role of cities in national economies is more sig- residents. Table 3 reflects the huge deficit in energy nificant in developing countries than in developed coun- consumption in most developing countries when tries. This is clearly emphasized in Table 2 which was compared to that of the developed ones. United Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 5 of 13 Fig. 4 Share of National Population and GDP in Key Cities in Developed Countries. Source: UN – HABITAT: The Economic Role of Cities States (US) or Canada presently consumes more people’s daily life and this contributes to carbon emissions, than 20 times that of an IGAD country. particularly cement manufacturing. Fuelwood from the countryside is another source of Loss of arable lands to urban development GHG, as many families consume charcoal and fuel wood Loss of forests and vegetation covers to urban development in households. For example, in Sudan, forests contribute is a continuous malpractice undertaken by cities which are to between 70 – 80 % of the total energy consumption, associated with endless sprawl because of the rapid annual urban growth, namely developing cities. Squatters are in- Table 3 Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita) in Selected cessantly encroaching on arable land that may previously Countries have been covered with vegetation – thereby reducing its Country name 2008 2009 2010 potential to absorb CO through trees and other plants that Australia 5779 5739 5593 collect CO from the atmosphere. Added to that is the con- Canada 7946 7434 7380 struction sector which is fundamentally impacted by Finland 6639 6227 6787 Iceland 16868 16905 16882 Table 2 Contribution of Cities to National GDPs Luxembourg 8610 7939 8343 City Population of the city Contribution to GDP vs. the state in Norway 6250 5831 6637 percentage United States 7488 7057 7164 Sao Paulo 10.5 % 19.5 % Benin 392 400 413 Buenos Aires 32.5 % 63.2 % Congo, Dem. Rep. 356 357 360 Dhaka, Each generates more than 200 Eritrea 137 142 142 Mumbai and percent higher GDP than their Khartoum population share Ethiopia 396 398 400 Addis Ababa Generates more than 360 Kenya 461 476 483 percent higher GDP than its Mozambique 421 428 436 population share Nepal 332 338 341 Hanoi Generates460 percent higher than its population share Senegal 261 270 272 Kinshasa Generates more than 500 Sudan 364 374 371 percent higher than its population share Tanzania 449 446 448 Source: UN – HABITAT: The Economic Role of Cities Source: IAE Statistics and World Bank Data Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 6 of 13 as it is the easiest way of producing energy for cooking. Rapid urban growth habitually could end up with ser- This results in deforestation in rural areas, causing per- ious social and environmental challenges, such as urban manent removal of trees from forests without planting poverty and various forms of pollution. In order to keep new ones and the consequential increase in levels of car- up with rapid urban expansion and urban population bon dioxide in the atmosphere because trees absorb growth, more resources and production are required. CO for photosynthesis. Agriculture is another cause of The ever-increasing production and consumption in cit- deforestation - farmers remove large number of trees to ies result in serious environmental problems in terms of increase acreage for crops and livestock, affecting the the pollution of air, water and land as well as the degrad- carbon cycle. ation of ecosystems. Also nearly all residents rely on inward flows of food and consumer goods that may result in GHG emissions Adoption of industrialization as a model of economic from areas outside the city growth by developing cities Developing cities are following the steps of the industrial Developing cities are growing extremely fast and so will ones and most of them prefer industrial development as a consume more energy means for economical growth. Developing countries have In 1970, 37 % of the world population resided in urban rushed for implementing industrial programmes despite areas. In 2014 this increased percentages have changed to the fact that they are well equipped for expansion in agri- 54 % as indicated in Fig. 5 produced by the Population cultural activities rather than for industrial development. Division of UN Department of Economic and Social This is because industrial products are more valuable and Affairs [10]. In 2030, the urban population is expected to profitable than agricultural commodities. grow and reach 60 % of the total population. The growth While manufacturing has declined in importance in is expected to be highest in the less developed countries developed countries, it has expanded rapidly in some de- as shown by Fig. 6 which is based on data from UN veloping countries. Countries such as Brazil, China, Department of Economic and Social Affairs [10]. India and South Africa – encouraged by economic and It is to be noted that more than 20 cities worldwide geopolitical changes – are now centres for global manu- are with a population exceeding 10 million, and the pat- facturing. Their industries have been intensified, ex- tern is on the increase particularly in less developed panded and their production is increased to meet the countries, as shown in Fig. 7. needs of the global market. Even the peripheral areas in It is noted that most of the mega-cities and large some cities in the developing world receive global fund- urban centers are growing in the South and that large ing, in terms of the high tech industries and other indus- cities such as Bangalore, Mexico City and Cairo are trial service, which are concentrated and developed found morphing into new spatial configurations in without feasibility studies or prior planning, as is cur- which they amalgamate other cities and towns of various rently happening in some cities of East Asia. sizes within their economic orbit. In other cases, two or more large cities, such as Mumbai and Delhi in India, Sao Paulo- and Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, or Ibadan-Lagos Inability to implement climate change mitigation and -Accra in Africa form transport corridors for the measures by developing cities purposes of industrial development, business services Developing cities are in need of the use of whatever and trade. source of energy. They can’t: Urban Rural Fig. 5 Urban and rural population of the world, 1950–2050. Source: World Urbanisation Prospects 2014 Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 7 of 13 Fig. 6 Rate of population growth in developed countries compared to less developed countries. Based on data from UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2001 Afford green technology despite the fact that the rates of private cars ownership in the developed countries is exceptionally high and more Poor countries are unable to implement policies that than tens times the rate in the developing countries. Ac- provide safe energy supply because of the prohibitive cording to Table 4, for example the number of motor vehi- cost envisaged for the reduction of GHGs which requires cles in some European countries e.g.; Finland and the use of alternate or renewable energy. They will not con- Unites State varies between 612 and 797 vehicles per 1000 sider using alternative energy unless it becomes afford- people respectively, while this number is in the range 3 - 27 able to their nations - they are in need to run their in Ethiopia and Sudan respectively. Large capacity systems factories and provide mobility to their urban dwellers such as trains, metros, transit rails, and large capacity buses which is already in limited supply. are not expected to operate in the near future, but instead - private vehicles utilization rates will increase because cities Establish large capacity public transport systems will not inhibit their use due to absence of alternatives. Nothing can be done by most developing countries to  Adopt “Compact City” model of physical solve the transportation problem – there is - insufficient development public transport capacity and low traffic speed in addition to a limited network of paved roads. Growth rates of private It is known that a negative correlation exists between vehicle ownership in the developing world continue to soar population density and atmospheric GHG emissions; Fig. 7 Population of the world Megacities. Source: http://www.megacitiesproject.org/images/perfect-chart.jpg Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 8 of 13 Table 4 Number of annual Deaths and Number of Vehicles for construction of cheap building forms and lack of develop- Some Countries in 2002 or 2004 ment control. In both cities the population density de- Country Number of deaths per Number of vehicles per creases by time as indicated in Table 5. 100’000 of population 1’000 persons In conclusion, when considering the above prevailing Australia 9.3 616 situations in developing cities and the expectation that Belgium 13.9 522 these cities become centres of powerful forces of eco- nomic growth and wealth so they will be expected soon Canada 9.3 585 to emit very large volumes of GHGs more than what de- Germany 8.8 572 veloped cities are generating. This argument is sup- Japan 7.4 677 ported by the circulated data produced by reputable Netherlands 6.7 427 agencies. According to data from Statista [11], three of UK 5.6 434 the largest five producers of CO emissions worldwide USA 15 779 in 2014, based on their share of global CO emissions and which were not expected to generate CO more Norway 7.7 559 2 than the industrial countries were China, India and Denmark 9.5 424 Brazil. The five largest producers were China 23.4 %, Costa Rica 20.1 162 USA 16.69 %, India 5.7 % - Russia 4.87 % and Brazil Colombia 24.2 67 4.17 %. Also, the evidences from the IEA Annual Re- Egypt 7.5 35 ports [12] - and the 2015 data on the Statista Website Thailand 21.0 280 show that the CO emissions of OECD countries dropped from 66.1 % in 1983 to 41 % in 2010 and - Ecuador 16.9 47 38 % in 2012. The CO emission of Non-OECD Europe China 19 80 and Eurasia dropped from 16.2 % in 1973 to reach 8.6 % Panama 16.4 112 in 2012 while the CO emissions of China increased Mauritius 14.7 195 from 5.9 % in 1973 to 24.1 % in 2010 and 26 % in 2012. Source:Compiled from different sources including World Report on Road The CO emissions of Africa have almost doubled from Traffic Injury, World Health Organisation, Geneva 2004 and World Bank 1973 at 1.8 % to 3.3 % in 2012, while that of Asia has Data, 2003 more than tripled, increasing from 3 to 11.6 % in 2012. spatially compact and mixed-use urban developments The CO emissions of Middle East have jumped from have generally significant benefits in terms of GHG emis- 0.8 % in 1973 to 5.2 % in 2012. In addition, the CO sions reduction. The development pattern adopted by the emissions of North America and Europe were almost majority of developing cities is urban sprawl which is equal to the rest of the world in 1990 but currently they contrary to ‘Compact City’ model resulting in reduction of are less than one third as indicated in Fig. 8 showing energy and services cost. The incessant displacement of that emissions from developing countries are constantly rural people, the continuous exodus towards cities; and increasing from year to year. the excessive expansion of makeshift settlements and un- Although they were not part of the binding framework controlled development produce huge subdivisions of to reduce emissions, the substantial emissions from sprawled physical development overwhelmed by poor Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa – has dwellers living in shanty settlements. The substantial hori- compelled them to take a more progressive role in inter- zontal expansion of Greater Khartoum in Sudan and national climate negotiations. Addis Ababa in Ethiopia is a typical example and has been For all the above reasons, climate change cannot be encouraged by abundance of land serviced with water, combated without the exertion of enough efforts by Table 5 Growth of the Physical Block and Population Density in Khartoum and Addis Ababa Year 1955 1970 1980 1984 1994 1998 2000 2002 2005 2006 2010 Population in (000) KRT 0250 0640 1170 4372 5139 5761 6010 7000 Total area in (ha) KRT 1680 3000 22840 80250 NA NA 132300 165000 population density in 149 213 51 55 NA NA 45 42 person/ha KRT Population in (000) ADDIS 036 1423 2113 2495 Total area in (ha) ADDIS 460 2240 4350 6154 population density in 783 635 486 405 person/ha ADDIS Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 9 of 13 Global Consumption of Carbon in 1990 Global Consumption of Carbon in 2001 North North America America 26% 22.5% Europe Europe 24.5% 22% Others Others 52% 53% Global Consumption of Carbon in 2010 Global Consumption of Carbon in 2013 North North America America 19% 19% Europe Europe 11% 14.4% Others Others 66.6% 70% Fig. 8 Global Consumption of CO2 for 1990, 2002, 2010 and 2013 for each Group of Countries. Source: Gathered from different sources developing cities or finding cheaper alternative energy emissions and removals, which were used to create the affordable to them. 1990 benchmark levels for accession of Annex I coun- tries to the Kyoto Protocol and for the commitment of UN efforts and their effectiveness in combating those countries to GHG reductions. Updated inventories climate change must be regularly submitted by Annex I countries. UN efforts to combat climate change The COP18/CMP8 meeting held in Doha, Qatar, in The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate November - December 2012 was considered fruitful since Change (UNFCCC), is an international environmental it opened up a new gateway driving governments to take treaty, and its objective is to “stabilize GHG concentrations the essential steps in the global response to climate in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous change. Countries in Doha endorsed the completion of anthropogenicinterferencewiththe climatesystem”.The new institutions and agreed ways and means to deliver treaty provides a framework for negotiating specific inter- scaled-up climate finance and technology to developing national treaties called “protocols” that may set binding countries and are committed to implement COP18/CMP8 limits on GHGs. The parties to the convention have met as follow: annually from 1995 in Conferences of the Parties (COP) [13] to assess progress in dealing with climate change. In  Continue the Kyoto Protocol’s Market Mechanisms 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was concluded and established – the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint binding obligations for developed countries to reduce their Implementation (JI) and International Emissions GHG emissions. The Kyoto Protocol has had two commit- Trading (IET) as of 2013. ment periods, the first was in the period 2005-2012, and  Continue operating JI with the agreed technical the second is in the period 2012-2020. By the time the first rules allowing the issuance of credits, once a host commitment period expired on the 31st December 2012, country’s emissions target has been formally the Protocol had 83 signatories worldwide, unfortunately; established. only 55 of the original signatories ratified the agreement.  Speedily work toward a universal climate change The US is one of the largest polluters and among those agreement covering all countries from 2020, to be who did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol. adopted by 2015, to curb emissions so that the One of the first tasks set by the UNFCCC was for sig- world can stay below the agreed maximum 2 natory nations to establish national GHG inventories of degrees Celsius temperature rise. Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 10 of 13 Establish a pathway to provide the most vulnerable 3. Parties shall take into consideration in the populations with better protection against loss and implementation of Paris Agreement the concerns of damage caused by slow onset events such as rising Parties with economies most affected by the impacts sea levels. of response measures, particularly developing Implement national adaptation plans for least countries’ Parties. developed countries including linking funding and other support Ineffectiveness of UN current policies Further clarify ways to measure deforestation, and to Throughout the past years, polluting countries have an- ensure that efforts to fight deforestation are nounced individual commitments to cut carbon dioxide supported. emissions in hope these cuts will keep global temperatures from rising by more than 3.6 °F (2 °C) by 2100. The statis- The 20th COP took place in Peru in December 2014 tics show the pledged emission cuts aren’t anywhere near which gave way for the new 2015 agreement on climate enough to combat climate change. The recent Paris change to be signed in Paris and harnessed the action by Agreement may restore a faith in UN process if imple- all nations. mented but does not reduce temperatures as needed un- It should be noted that the overall processes of the less all the drivers of climate variability are considered and UNFCCC and the adopted Kyoto Protocol have been criti- in particular the abortive role of developing countries. cized by not having achieved its stated goals of reducing This is in addition to the defections expected from some the emission of carbon dioxide as discussed above. The polluting countries that may not fulfill their obligations if failure to achieve meaningful progress and reach effective their competitors are not complying. On Saturday 12 CO reducing-policy treaties among the parties over the December 2015 Professor James Hansen, Department of past eighteen years have driven some countries like the Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University US to never ratify the UNFCCC’s because according to and a leading climate scientist - credited as being the US the treaty didn’t cover developing countries which “father of climate change awareness” - denounced the some of them are now considered the largest CO emit- Paris Agreement. He told the Guardian, a British news ters. Other air polluting countries may follow US as re- paper, after the Paris Agreement was concluded that “as ported in COP documents but for different reasons. In long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out 2010 in Cancun, Japan stated that it will not sign up a sec- there, they will be continued to be burned”. The author ond Kyoto term, because it would impose restrictions on shares Professor Hansen’s opinion that developing coun- it not faced by its main economic competitors, China, tries will accelerate the rate of energy consumption and India and Indonesia. A similar indication was given by the this situation will prevail in the near future if preventive Prime Minister of New Zealand in November 2012 in measures are not imposed to control CO emissions by Doha. At the 2012 conference in Doha, last minute objec- these countries. Other reasons include: tions at the conference by Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan were ignored by the governing officials, and  UN Program appears to be concentrating on they have indicated that they will likely withdraw or not mitigating the impacts i.e. the symptoms of climate ratify the treaty. These defections place additional pres- change rather than targeting the main grassroots sures on the UNFCCC process. However, a positive atti- causes of climate variations. All UN efforts are tude was noticed in the Paris Agreement, which was primarily focused on assisting communities to cope concluded in the last minute of the COP 21 Conference. with adverse effects of climate change and mitigate The Paris Agreement, which has been adopted by 195 its impacts thus, engaging countries to climate countries, is the first-ever universal, legally binding glo- change adaptation through facilitation of a number bal climate deal. The most essential provisions of the of actions that reduce GHG emissions and improve agreement are: urban resilience. The main cause of climate change is that the World is making more cities than villages 1. Holding the increase in the global average and ruining the countryside by deforestation and temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial clearance of the vegetation covers. This levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature phenomenon is disturbing the environmental increase to 1.5 °C. balance of our ecosystems which is formed by a 2. Providing support to developing countries in community of animals, plants and microbes accordance with Articles 9, 10 and 11, recognizing performing the activities of living, feeding, that enhanced support for developing countries’ reproducing and interacting. The ecosystems are Parties will allow for higher ambition in their organized in a state of stability where species coexist actions. with other species and with their environment. This Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 11 of 13 balance is sustained by the relationship that exists crops, decreasing animals’ grazing areas and causing between all the components of an environment as poverty, death of livestock as well as triggering stated by the Great Creator “And the earth - We social, economic and political tensions and repetitive have spread it and cast therein firmly set mountains armed conflicts. It is known that the poor will and caused to grow therein [something] of every always be a threat to the environment through their well-balanced thing, Verse 19 of Al-Hijir. malpractices. Some go searching for firewood as it is the easiest way of producing energy for cooking Therefore, we ought to seek answers in the divine besides cutting the scattered trees for building their books descended by almighty the Great Creator who or- shacks, using the available few grass for roofing and dered and instructed mankind to keep this balance. forage for their animals. The outcome of this The Quran, the final revelation of God’s word among process is the uprooting of rural population and the four divine books states: “Disperse within the land”, further migration towards cities. Al- Jumua, (10). “My earth is spacious”, Al-Ankabut,  Urban bias global policies that encourage rapid (56). “And whoever emigrates for the cause of Allah will urbanisation have not been reformed to normalize find on the earth many [alternative] locations and abun- the process of urban growth. These include: dance”, Al-Nisa (100). Almighty also forbids mankind 1. The structural adjustments packages imposed by from being excessive. The Quran states: “Do not spend international financial institutions on the wastefully”, Al-Isra (26). “Eat from the good things with developing countries to integrate into the which We have provided you and do not transgress”,Ta- international economy have opened the door for Ha (81). “Children of Adam, take your adornment at the capitalist economic model and pave the way every masjid, and eat and drink, but be not excessive, for industrialization through utilization of science Al-A’raf (31). “And do not obey the order of the trans- and technology while retarding traditional gressors”, Ash-Shu’ara (151). “Then remember the fa- economies and agriculture. Also the multinational vours of Allah and do not commit abuse on the Earth”, giant companies increased their role and Al-A’raf (74) strengthened their power in the global The situation is better described by the Verse: ”Have economy..“Science and Technology” is almost in you not considered those who exchanged the grace of the hands of giant international companies and Allah for thankless and settled their people [in] the lack of control by the community is encouraging home of ruin”? Ibrahim (28) these companies to over-exploit resources for profit. UN has not yet fully mobilsed cities for Combating 2. The World Trade Organization and the current CC despite their spearhead role in this process and system of trade, monetary flows, production and the risks they are subjected to. Many cities have not consumption, allows few of the rich people to yet genuinely addressed climate change and increase their wealth at the expense of others. particularly developing cities. The reasons include Opportunities of exports from developing lack of capacity and resources in developing cities countries to the international markets are together with lack of public and local governance substantially reduced because cost of agricultural awareness on climate variability. In addition, one of production has increased. In addition, agricultural the key goals of urban sustainable development is to products produced by farmers in industrial promote energy and resource efficiency in the countries are subsidized and this lowers the building sector and to provide good, healthy and prices of agricultural commodities in the affordable buildings for people in cities and these international markets. have not been tackled in the majority of cities 3. Over-usage of natural resources through worldwide. The majority of these cities lack excessiveness of the rich is not checked. The implementation of relevant city policies and action basic environmental problem thus, facing plans; the prevailing regulations on urban humanity is the continual extravagant usage and development and environment have not been depletion of natural resources by developed adjusted to combat climate change. countries. On the other hand, giving assistance to UN policies together with climate change impacts the poor is seen by the rich as charity, not a right are driving rural populations to leave their land. or social justice. Since 1986, international Drought has affected the physical, social and organizations and the UN agencies have talked economic life of most African communities for about poverty reduction but in fact the poverty recurrent and prolong periods of droughts in some rate in developing cities has increased and the developing countries are now lowering the yield of rich countries have become richer. In Table 6, the Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 12 of 13 Table 6 Percentage of poor families in selected cities 1993/1998/2003 CITY Country Percentage of the Percentage of the Percentage of the poor families 1993 poor families 1998 poor families 2003 Porto Novo Benin 22 % 32 % 49 % Kigali Rwanda 65 % 50 % 52 % Dakar Senegal 38 % 13 % 55 % Mombassa Kenya 23.6 % 27.2 % 31.3 % Lagos Nigeria 53 % 66 % 62 % Sana’a Yemen 14 % 53 % 63 % Nairobi Kenya 20.8 % 30.0 % 41.1 % Kumasi Ghana 26 % 31 % 29 % Rio de Janeiro Brazil 17 % 19 % 30 % From different sources percentage of poor families in Porto Novo, Benin identified several ways through which plants can alter the has increased from22 % in 1993 to 49 % in 2003. temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere. The data are avail- Likewise the poverty figures have increased in able in one or more of NASA’sEarth ScienceDataCenters. Sana’a, Yemen from 14 % in 1993 to 63 % in 2003. Through the process of photosynthesis, plants use energy Even in countries with high GDP such as Nigeria, from the sun to draw down carbon dioxide from the at- the percentage of poor population in Lagos has mosphere. Plants also cool the landscape directly through increased from 53 % in 1993 to 62.5 % in 2003. In the transpiration process. They often release excess water Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, the poor families’ into the air from their leaves when the surrounding atmos- percentage increased from 17.5 % in 1993 to 30 % phere heats up and by releasing evaporated water, plants in 2003, as noted in the global urban Observatory cool themselves and the surrounding environment. [14] and World Bank reports [15]. It is worth mentioning that the concept of restoration 4. The UN has not pushed hard to implement good of the countryside environment should be engraved in governance worldwide to bring national the minds of those who draft UN Climate Change governments closer to people in developing Programme. countries so as to abandon policies triggering Financial support to developing countries alone is wars where fighting has been going on in a meaningless without reformation of the global and na- number of developing countries and some of tional policies that retard climate change combat. these wars are still raging because external forces It is high time that mobilisation of Sub-national stock them with arms and ammunition - the Governments is sought because cities and other local- result is uprooting of huge influxes of IDPS and ities can make up the difference since local leaders migrants who flood developing cities and desert often have more autonomy to enact regulations and the countryside. National governments shall also enforce government resolve. be aided to implement water harvesting projects Most importantly is to bring justice to all Earth inhabi- in arid regions and provide social and public tants by enforcing good governance worldwide, alleviat- services to keep native people in place ing poverty and pushing for a dramatic change in the developed nations’ lifestyle associated with excessiveness UN policy reformation while putting science and technology at community A major shift in climate change combat approach by UN, service state governments and the international community is ur- gently required. A new UN strategy targeting the main Endnote causes of climate change, which is the imbalance between This paper bears no endnotes. urban and rural environments, should be put in place sup- ported by sound policies that make the countryside a more Abbreviations appealing place to live in and work with the aim to CC: climate change; COP: Conferences of the Parties; EIFER: European normalize urban growth, restore rural life, promote refor- Institute for Energy Research EIFER; ESRL: Earth System Research Laboratory; GHGs: Greenhouse Gases; IEA: The International Energy Agency; estation and enhance eco-agriculture. Wolfgang Buermann IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; NOAA: National Oceanic [16], a geographer at Boston University, confirms that plant and Atmospheric Administration; PPM: parts per million; RF: radiative forcing; growth can have a considerable effect on the climate. He UNDP: United Nations Development Program; UNEP: United Nations Bannaga Future Cities and Environment (2016) 2:4 Page 13 of 13 Environment Programme; UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention the Sudan University of Science and Technology, member of the Council of on Climate Change; WMO: World Meteorological Organization. Ministers’ Consulting Group, Chairman of two NGOs (Child Development Foundation, Sudan + The International Family Organisation, Sudan) and Deputy Chairman of Alsogya Charity Orgnization, Sudan. Competing interests The author has no interest and is not influenced by personal or financial Authors’ contributions relationship with other people or organizations. The paper is written by one author and no contribution made by another person. Author’s information Dr. Bannaga is a graduate of Loughborough University, UK with MSc and PhD Acknowledgements in 1974 and 1977, respectively and he was granted BSc from Faculty of The author acknowledges the effort exerted by Dr Sara Price, Barnsley Engineering, University of Khartoum in 1971. Hospital Gawber Rd, Barnsley, South Yorkshire S75 2EP, a native English HE started his practice in many international and national firms and doctor (medical) who corrected the text of this paper. institutions, in his early stages of practice, worked at the reputable international consultancy firm, Sir Alexander Gibb and Partners Consulting Received: 30 January 2016 Accepted: 21 March 2016 Engineers in London and supervised many international projects. Later he joined the Saudi Arabian National Guard in Riyadh in 1979 where he managed and supervised many housing and infrastructure projects for the References Saudi National Guards. After gaining great experiences, Dr. Bannaga joined 1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC WGI AR5 website www. the UN in mid eighties and worked as expert for UNDTCD and participated climatechange2013.org and website www.ipcc.ch and IPCC.ch/report/ar5, in regional planning projects and other engineering projects undertaken by 2014 and IPCC website (2015) the Physical Planning Agency, Ministry of Municipal & Rural Affaires, Riyadh 2. Met Office, Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit, 2015. “Global Average KSA. Temperature Anomaly (1850 September 2015). Sourced at Internet: www. In 1989 Sudan Government called Dr. Bannaga and appointed him a Minister metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/ of Engineering Affaires and later a Minister of Housing & Public Utilities- 3. Earth System Research Laboratory. Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Khartoum State until he left office in mid 2001. During his mandate he 2015. “Annual trend of Carbon Dioxide (CO ) concentrations”.Global achieved a lot of works that changed the face of Khartoum Capital; the first Monitoring Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and successful project was the re-planning & restructuring of the Greater Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),US Department of Commerce, The data is Khartoum urban structure and reallocation of urban functions which sourced at Internet: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html included slums upgrading and villages organization for absorption in the 4. Anna T (2006) UN-HABITAT Address at the High Level Plenary. COP13, Bali urban fabric as well as restructuring of the transportation network. In 1994 5. Daniel H, Lorraine S, Clauddia Lorena Trejos G (2011) Cities and greenhouse he was granted the Star of Achievement, the highest medal of the state gas emissions: moving forward. Environment & Urbanization, International offered to officials as a reward for his outstanding performance. He executed Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) XX(X):1–21, April 2011 the giant Housing Plan of Greater Khartoum which paved the way for all of Downloaded from eau.sagepub.com the metropolis citizens to settle. He was able to renew and expand the 6. European Institute for Energy Research EIFER {(FIFER), 2011. Overview – urban networking to cope with the burgeoning population which surpassed Energy Cities and Territories, 2001. EIFER Website https://www.eifer.kit.edu/- over five million at the time. One of Dr. Bannaga’s most known achievements energy-cities-and-territories in Khartoum is the construction of the Salvation and Menshia bridges that link 7. The International Energy Agency (IEA), 2009. Cities, Towns and Renewable the tri-capital cities, Khartoum, Khartoum North and Omdurman and upon this Energy, OECD/IEA, 2009 he was granted the medal of Sudan’s Loyal Son in 2000, the highest medal 8. UN-HABITAT (2011) The Economic Role of Cities, the Global Economic granted to the Sudanese by the state and he ranks number seven in the list Dialogue Series. United Nations Human Settlements Programme 2011, Nairobi comprising those granted since Independence Day (1/1/1956). 9. Richard Dobbs and Others, 2011. “Urban world: Mapping the economic It is worth mentioning that Dr. Bannaga has been rewarded by international power of cities”. McKisey Global Institute, March 2011) and regional institutions - he was granted the Prize of The British Institution 10. UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division). “World of Water Engineers & Scientists in 1979, the Arab Environmental Shield from Urbanisation Prospects 2014”. The 2014 Revision, Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/ Arabian Union for Youth and Environment, Arab League in 1996, the Honorary 352) and “World Population Growth 1950 – 2020” World Urbanization Doctorate from the University of Juba, South Sudan in 1999, and the Honorary Prospects, the 2001 Revision Doctorate from the University of Khartoum in 2001. 11. Statista Website (2015): Databases Available online at www.Statista.com Dr. Bannaga is a recognized professional engineer. He is a Fellow of the 12. IEA Annual Reports, 2012-2014. “Key World Energy Statistics, 2012-2013 and 2014” British Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management- CIWEM, 13. COPs: The 18th, 19th and 20th Sessions of the Conference of the Parties to Fellow of the Sudan Engineering Society and Chairman of its cultural the UNFCCC and in particular the 18th session of the Conference of the committee. He is a member of the International Society of City and Regional Parties, held in Qatar National Convention Centre, Doha, Qatar on 26 Planners- ISOCARP, the World Society of Sustainable Energy Technology- WSSET November to 8 December, 2012. and was member of the British Institution of Water Engineers and Scientists- 14. UN-HABITAT (2007-14). Global Urban Observatory. IWES, the British Institution of Public Health Engineers, and the American Society 15. World Bank Report (2001-2015) available online at http://www.worldbank.org of Civil Engineers – ASCE and 16. Buermann, W., Y. Wang, 2002. “How Plants Can Change Our Climate”. NASA He published too many papers and articles in reputable scientific journals Earth Observatory, 6 May 2002.Available at NASA's Earth Science Data and was rewarded by IWES in 1979. The majority of the papers provides Centers. knowledge on water, urbanization and the physical environment. He edited eight books on urbanization, lands and human settlements covering primarily Greater Khartoum and the IGAD Sub-African region and five of them have been published by Zurich University (ETH: Swiss Federal Institute). These include: Treatment of Squatter Settlements, Reorganization of Villages and Reallocation of Urban Functions, Khartoum – a Profile of Urban Housing, the Displaced and Peace in Sudan, the Homeless Masses at Home, IGAD Region. Other books include Management of Islamic Cities between the Visions of Today and the Islamic Doctrine, Land Right of Use and Management Paradigm and the Salvation Bridge. He chaired a committee that edited several books on similar subjects for the Sudanese Council of Ministers. Dr. Bannaga is currently the President of the Organizing Council for Consultancy Firms - OCCF, Sudan, and the Chairman & Executive Director of the consultancy firm - “Bannaga Consult”. He is an associated professor, at

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Future Cities and Environment – Springer Journals

Published: Apr 1, 2016

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