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Sensitivity analysis involving different random variables and different potential failure modes of a gravity retaining wall focuses on the fact that high sensitivity of a particular variable on a particular mode of failure does not necessarily imply a remarkable contribution to the overall failure probability. The present paper aims at identifying a probabilistic risk factor (R f ) for each random variable based on the combined effects of failure probability (P f ) of each mode of failure of a gravity retaining wall and sensitivity of each of the random variables on these failure modes. P f is calculated by Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis of each random variable is carried out by F-test analysis. The structure, redesigned by modifying the original random variables with the risk factors, is safe against all the variations of random variables. It is observed that R f for friction angle of backfill soil (φ 1 ) increases and cohesion of foundation soil (c 2 ) decreases with an increase of variation of φ 1 , while R f for unit weights (γ 1 and γ 2 ) for both soil and friction angle of foundation soil (φ 2 ) remains almost constant for variation of soil properties. The results compared well with some of the existing deterministic and probabilistic methods and found to be cost-effective. It is seen that if variation of φ 1 remains within 5 %, significant reduction in cross-sectional area can be achieved. But if the variation is more than 7–8 %, the structure needs to be modified. Finally design guidelines for different wall dimensions, based on the present approach, are proposed.
Journal of The Institution of Engineers (India): Series A – Springer Journals
Published: Apr 24, 2013
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