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Predicting the potential distribution of a near-extinct avian predator on the Arabian Peninsula: implications for its conservation management

Predicting the potential distribution of a near-extinct avian predator on the Arabian Peninsula:... Species distribution models (SDMs) generate predicted distribution maps which can be used as effective tools for conservation purposes. The persistence of isolated populations at the margin of a large distributional area depends on local threats which may differ from those faced by the main population. Environmental predictors can indicate suitable areas for these species and, indirectly, evaluate the impact on peripheral populations due to fragmentation and isolation. The Lanner Falcon (Falco biarmicus) is an Afro-tropical and Mediterranean polytypic species considered critically endangered (CR) in Arabian Peninsula by IUCN, but a lack of published information about its distribution persists. Here, we model the distribution of the Lanner Falcon in the Arabian Peninsula using nest-site data and map its core area and their habitat suitability using a robust algorithm with good prediction accuracy even at low sample sizes (MaxEnt). The predictive map suggests a potential distribution of the Lanner Falcons that runs from north to south along the eastern coast of the Red Sea. The Terrain Roughness Index contributed the most to the breeding range model predictions (57.6%), followed by isothermality (Bio3, 15.3%). The model suggests a tendency by Lanner Falcons to occupy areas with a low terrain complexity according to their behavioural patterns and breeding strategies. In addition, this falcon is highly sensitive to climate occupying high isothermal regions in order to avoid extreme heating events. Overall, predictive models indicate a narrow range of suitable environmental conditions for breeding as well restricted favourable areas during dispersal and migration. Thus, these small and fragmented populations are more likely prone to anthropogenic factors and must be buffered against them. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Springer Journals

Predicting the potential distribution of a near-extinct avian predator on the Arabian Peninsula: implications for its conservation management

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References (72)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022
ISSN
0167-6369
eISSN
1573-2959
DOI
10.1007/s10661-022-10225-2
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) generate predicted distribution maps which can be used as effective tools for conservation purposes. The persistence of isolated populations at the margin of a large distributional area depends on local threats which may differ from those faced by the main population. Environmental predictors can indicate suitable areas for these species and, indirectly, evaluate the impact on peripheral populations due to fragmentation and isolation. The Lanner Falcon (Falco biarmicus) is an Afro-tropical and Mediterranean polytypic species considered critically endangered (CR) in Arabian Peninsula by IUCN, but a lack of published information about its distribution persists. Here, we model the distribution of the Lanner Falcon in the Arabian Peninsula using nest-site data and map its core area and their habitat suitability using a robust algorithm with good prediction accuracy even at low sample sizes (MaxEnt). The predictive map suggests a potential distribution of the Lanner Falcons that runs from north to south along the eastern coast of the Red Sea. The Terrain Roughness Index contributed the most to the breeding range model predictions (57.6%), followed by isothermality (Bio3, 15.3%). The model suggests a tendency by Lanner Falcons to occupy areas with a low terrain complexity according to their behavioural patterns and breeding strategies. In addition, this falcon is highly sensitive to climate occupying high isothermal regions in order to avoid extreme heating events. Overall, predictive models indicate a narrow range of suitable environmental conditions for breeding as well restricted favourable areas during dispersal and migration. Thus, these small and fragmented populations are more likely prone to anthropogenic factors and must be buffered against them.

Journal

Environmental Monitoring and AssessmentSpringer Journals

Published: Aug 1, 2022

Keywords: Lanner Falcon; Falco biarmicus tanypterus; Species distribution models; Climatic constraints; Endangered raptors

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