Modeling the Waves of Covid-19

Modeling the Waves of Covid-19 The challenges with modeling the spread of Covid-19 are its power-type growth during the middle stages of the waves with the exponents depending on time, and that the saturation of the waves is mainly due to the protective measures and other restriction mechanisms working in the same direction. The two-phase solution we propose for modeling the total number of detected cases of Covid-19 describes the actual curves for many its waves and in many countries almost with the accuracy of physics laws. Bessel functions play the key role in our approach. The differential equations we obtain are of universal type and can be used in behavioral psychology, invasion ecology (transient processes), etc. The initial transmission rate and the intensity of the restriction mechanisms are the key parameters. This theory provides a convincing explanation of the surprising uniformity of the Covid-19 waves in many places, and can be used for forecasting the epidemic spread. For instance, the early projections for the 3rd wave in the USA appeared sufficiently exact. The Delta-waves (2021) in India, South Africa, UK, and the Netherlands are discussed at the end. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Acta Biotheoretica Springer Journals

Modeling the Waves of Covid-19

, Volume 70 (1) – Mar 1, 2022
36 pages

/lp/springer-journals/modeling-the-waves-of-covid-19-BVMq8nLJrF
Publisher
Springer Journals
ISSN
0001-5342
eISSN
1572-8358
DOI
10.1007/s10441-021-09428-w
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The challenges with modeling the spread of Covid-19 are its power-type growth during the middle stages of the waves with the exponents depending on time, and that the saturation of the waves is mainly due to the protective measures and other restriction mechanisms working in the same direction. The two-phase solution we propose for modeling the total number of detected cases of Covid-19 describes the actual curves for many its waves and in many countries almost with the accuracy of physics laws. Bessel functions play the key role in our approach. The differential equations we obtain are of universal type and can be used in behavioral psychology, invasion ecology (transient processes), etc. The initial transmission rate and the intensity of the restriction mechanisms are the key parameters. This theory provides a convincing explanation of the surprising uniformity of the Covid-19 waves in many places, and can be used for forecasting the epidemic spread. For instance, the early projections for the 3rd wave in the USA appeared sufficiently exact. The Delta-waves (2021) in India, South Africa, UK, and the Netherlands are discussed at the end.

Journal

Acta BiotheoreticaSpringer Journals

Published: Mar 1, 2022

Keywords: Epidemics; Modeling epidemics; Power law; Invasion; Bessel functions

References

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