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Forecasting Recession and Slow-Down Probabilities with Markov Switching Probabilities as Right-Hand-Side Variables

Forecasting Recession and Slow-Down Probabilities with Markov Switching Probabilities as... Abstract Forecasting the likelihood of recessions and slow-downs is an important issue for many who use economics in business. While there has been a large and growing body of literature on the likelihood or recessions, there has been little on slow-downs.. This paper presents a new method that uses Markov switching probabilities as right-hand-side variables. The advantages of doing so are described, as are the results of empirical work. These results suggest that the approach presented here is worth adding to economists’ tool kits. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Business Economics Springer Journals

Forecasting Recession and Slow-Down Probabilities with Markov Switching Probabilities as Right-Hand-Side Variables

Levanon, Gad
Business Economics , Volume 46 (2): 12 – Apr 1, 2011
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References (11)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
2011 National Association for Business Economics
ISSN
0007-666X
eISSN
1554-432X
DOI
10.1057/be.2011.8
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Abstract Forecasting the likelihood of recessions and slow-downs is an important issue for many who use economics in business. While there has been a large and growing body of literature on the likelihood or recessions, there has been little on slow-downs.. This paper presents a new method that uses Markov switching probabilities as right-hand-side variables. The advantages of doing so are described, as are the results of empirical work. These results suggest that the approach presented here is worth adding to economists’ tool kits.

Journal

Business Economics – Springer Journals

Published: Apr 1, 2011

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