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L. Carr, R. Elsberry (2000)
Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors. Part II: Midlatitude Circulation InfluencesWeather and Forecasting, 15
R. Elsberry, James Hughes, M. Boothe (2008)
Weighted Position and Motion Vector Consensus of Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction in the Western North PacificMonthly Weather Review, 136
F. Vitart, A. Leroy, M. Wheeler (2010)
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F. Vitart (2009)
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R. Elsberry, P. Harr (2008)
Tropical Cyclone Structure (TCS08) Field Experiment Science Basis, Observational Platforms, and StrategyAsia-pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 44
R. Elsberry, M. Jordan, F. Vitart (2010)
Predictability of tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales with the ECMWF monthly forecast modelAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 46
L. Carr, R. Elsberry (2000)
Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors. Part I: Tropical Region Error SourcesWeather and Forecasting, 15
Abstract The performance of the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions of western North Pacific tropical cyclone events (formation plus track) made once a week during the 2009 season is evaluated with the same procedures as for the 2008 season. Seventeen of the 23 tropical cyclones during the 2009 season occurred during multiple storm scenarios that are more difficult to predict, and many of the deficient track predictions involved unusual and rapidly changing tracks that typically involve interactions with adjacent synoptic circulations that are not predictable on intraseasonal timescales (10–30 days). Such incorrect predictions of the duration and tracks of these multiple cyclones were found to degrade the performance in predicting subsequent tropical cyclone formations and tracks during the 32-day integration. Predominantly northward tracks throughout the life cycle tended to be less predictable on intraseasonal timescales. Given these caveats, the overall performance of the ECMWF ensemble for the 12 typhoons was more successful than during the 2008 season. However, the performance for three tropical storms during the 2009 season was less successful due to the difficult track forecast scenarios. A surprisingly good performance was found in predicting the formation location and early track segments of eight minimal tropical storms or tropical depressions. The less satisfactory aspect for many of the late season tropical depressions was that the ECMWF ensemble continued to predict member vortices for extended periods after the system had actually dissipated.
"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences" – Springer Journals
Published: Aug 1, 2011
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