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His research covers human motivation and personality, social perception, and human decision-making. He has published four edited books and over 100 articles
P. Paruchuri, N. Chakraborty, Geoffrey Gordon, K. Sycara, J. Brett, Wendi Adair (2013)
Inter-cultural opponent behavior modeling in a POMDP based Automated Negotiating Agent
D. Pynadath, S. Marsella (2007)
Minimal Mental Models
J. Hoey, J. Little (2007)
Value-Directed Human Behavior Analysis from Video Using Partially Observable Markov Decision ProcessesIEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 29
Shih-Kai Huang, M. Lindell, Carla Prater (2016)
Who Leaves and Who Stays? A Review and Statistical Meta-Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation StudiesEnvironment and Behavior, 48
R. Howard (1988)
Decision analysis: practice and promiseManagement Science, 34
R. Howard, J. Matheson (2005)
Influence DiagramsDecis. Anal., 2
D. Dubois, M. Wellman, Bruce D'Ambrosio, Phillipe Smets (1992)
Proceedings of the Eighth international conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Ning Wang, D. Pynadath, S. Marsella (2013)
Subjective Perceptions in Wartime Negotiation2013 Humaine Association Conference on Affective Computing and Intelligent Interaction
Heath Se, P. Kass, A. Beck, Larry Glickman (2001)
Human and pet-related risk factors for household evacuation failure during a natural disaster.American journal of epidemiology, 153 7
N. Taatgen, C. Lebiere, John Anderson (2006)
Cognition and Multi-Agent Interaction: From Cognitive Modeling to Social Simulation
Uffe Kjærulff (1992)
A Computational Scheme for Reasoning in Dynamic Probabilistic Networks
NOAA (2020) U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters
P. Gmytrasiewicz, Prashant Doshi (2005)
A Framework for Sequential Planning in Multi-Agent SettingsArXiv, abs/1109.2135
R. McAlinden, D. Pynadath, R. Hill (2014)
UrbanSim: Using Social Simulation to Train for Stability Operations
J. Collins, Robin Ersing, A. Polen (2017)
Evacuation Decision-Making during Hurricane Matthew: An Assessment of the Effects of Social ConnectionsWeather, Climate, and Society, 9
J. Lazo, A. Bostrom, R. Morss, J. Demuth, H. Lazrus (2015)
Factors Affecting Hurricane Evacuation IntentionsRisk Analysis, 35
S. Luke, C. Cioffi-Revilla, Liviu Panait, Keith Sullivan, G. Balan (2005)
MASON: A Multiagent Simulation EnvironmentSimulation, 81
Craig Boutilier, T. Dean, S. Hanks (1999)
Decision-Theoretic Planning: Structural Assumptions and Computational LeverageJ. Artif. Intell. Res., 11
J. Demuth, R. Morss, B. Morrow, J. Lazo (2012)
Creation and Communication of Hurricane Risk InformationBulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93
Marsella@glasgow.ac.uk Chirag Merchant merchant@ict
M. Hunt, Kelsey Bogue, Nick Rohrbaugh (2012)
Pet Ownership and Evacuation Prior to Hurricane IreneAnimals : an Open Access Journal from MDPI, 2
D. Pynadath, Heather Rosoff, R. John (2016)
Semi-Automated Construction of Decision-Theoretic Models of Human Behavior
Nicole Dash, H. Gladwin (2007)
Evacuation Decision Making and Behavioral Responses: Individual and HouseholdNatural Hazards Review, 8
Kathleen Carley, D. Fridsma, Elizabeth Casman, Alex Yahja, N. Altman, Li-Chiou Chen, B. Kaminsky, Démian Nave (2006)
BioWar: scalable agent-based model of bioattacksIEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans, 36
J. Tatman, Ross Shachter (1990)
Dynamic programming and influence diagramsIEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern., 20
M. Lindell, R. Perry (2012)
The Protective Action Decision Model: Theoretical Modifications and Additional EvidenceRisk Analysis, 32
M. Lindell, Jing-Chein Lu, Carla Prater (2005)
Household Decision Making and Evacuation in Response to Hurricane LiliNatural Hazards Review, 6
A. Farmer, S. DeYoung, Tricia Wachtendorf (2016)
Pets and Evacuation: An Ongoing Challenge in DisastersJournal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 13
Julia Kim, R. Hill, P. Durlach, H. Lane, Eric Forbell, Mark Core, S. Marsella, D. Pynadath, John Hart (2009)
BiLAT: A Game-Based Environment for Practicing Negotiation in a Cultural ContextInt. J. Artif. Intell. Educ., 19
Jonathan Ito, D. Pynadath, S. Marsella (2008)
Modeling self-deception within a decision-theoretic frameworkAutonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 20
Stéphane Ross, Joelle Pineau, Sébastien Paquet, B. Chaib-draa (2008)
Online Planning Algorithms for POMDPsThe journal of artificial intelligence research, 32 2
D. Pynadath (2004)
PsychSim: Agent-based Modeling of Social Interactions and Influence
J. Rouchier (2007)
Cognition and Multi-Agent Interaction: from Cognitive Modeling to Social Simulation by Ron Sun (ed.)J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul., 10
D. Koller, Brian Milch (2001)
Multi-Agent Influence Diagrams for Representing and Solving Games
Auton Agent Multi-Agent Syst DOI 10.1007/s10458-009-9093-x Modeling appraisal in theory of mind reasoning
M Si, SC Marsella, DV Pynadath (2010)
Modeling appraisal in theory of mind reasoningJournal of Autonomous Agents and MultiAgent Systems, 20
Craig Boutilier, David Poole (1996)
Computing Optimal Policies for Partially Observable Decision Processes Using Compact Representations
Kyle Polich, P. Gmytrasiewicz (2007)
Interactive dynamic influence diagrams
L. Kaelbling, M. Littman, A. Cassandra (1998)
Planning and Acting in Partially Observable Stochastic DomainsArtif. Intell., 101
(2019)
Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale
P. Gmytrasiewicz, E. Durfee (1995)
A Rigorous, Operational Formalization of Recursive Modeling
J. Collins, Robin Ersing, A. Polen, Michelle Saunders, J. Senkbeil (2018)
The Effects of Social Connections on Evacuation Decision Making during Hurricane IrmaWeather, Climate, and Society
Adam Goodie, Prashant Doshi, Diana Young (2012)
Levels of theory-of-mind reasoning in competitive gamesJournal of Behavioral Decision Making, 25
A. Press (2002)
Proceedings of the ... International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems
D. Pynadath, S. Marsella (2005)
PsychSim: Modeling Theory of Mind with Decision-Theoretic Agents
Artificial intelligence (AI) research provides a rich source of modeling languages capable of generating socially plausible simulations of human behavior, while also providing a transparent ground truth that can support validation of social-science methods applied to that simulation. In this work, we leverage two established AI representations: decision-theoretic planning and recursive modeling. Decision-theoretic planning (specifically Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes) provides agents with quantitative models of their corresponding real-world entities’ subjective (and possibly incorrect) perspectives of ground truth in the form of probabilistic beliefs and utility functions. Recursive modeling gives an agent a theory of mind, which is necessary when a person’s (again, possibly incorrect) subjective perspectives are of another person, rather than of just his/her environment. We used PsychSim, a multiagent social-simulation framework combining these two AI frameworks, to build a general parameterized model of human behavior during disaster response, grounding the model in social-psychological theories to ensure social plausibility. We then instantiated that model into alternate ground truths for simulating population response to a series of natural disasters, namely, hurricanes. The simulations generate data in response to socially plausible instruments (e.g., surveys) that serve as input to the Ground Truth program’s designated research teams for them to conduct simulated social science. The simulation also provides a graphical ground truth and a set of outcomes to be used as the gold standard in evaluating the research teams’ inferences.
Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory – Springer Journals
Published: Mar 1, 2023
Keywords: Social simulation; Decision theory; Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs); Multiagent-based simulation; Disaster response
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