Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
(Peng, L. et al. Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling. In press, n. 2020.)
Peng, L. et al. Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling. In press, n. 2020.Peng, L. et al. Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling. In press, n. 2020., Peng, L. et al. Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling. In press, n. 2020.
(Chen, B. et al. Roles of meteorological conditions in COVID-19 transmission on a worldwide scale. medRxiv, v. 11, p. 2020.03.16.20037168, 2020.)
Chen, B. et al. Roles of meteorological conditions in COVID-19 transmission on a worldwide scale. medRxiv, v. 11, p. 2020.03.16.20037168, 2020.Chen, B. et al. Roles of meteorological conditions in COVID-19 transmission on a worldwide scale. medRxiv, v. 11, p. 2020.03.16.20037168, 2020., Chen, B. et al. Roles of meteorological conditions in COVID-19 transmission on a worldwide scale. medRxiv, v. 11, p. 2020.03.16.20037168, 2020.
(2020)
The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirusJournal of travel medicine, 27
(Hou, C. et al. The effectiveness of the quarantine of Wuhan city against the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): well-mixed SEIR model analysis. J Med Virol, p. 0–3, 2020.)
Hou, C. et al. The effectiveness of the quarantine of Wuhan city against the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): well-mixed SEIR model analysis. J Med Virol, p. 0–3, 2020.Hou, C. et al. The effectiveness of the quarantine of Wuhan city against the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): well-mixed SEIR model analysis. J Med Virol, p. 0–3, 2020., Hou, C. et al. The effectiveness of the quarantine of Wuhan city against the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): well-mixed SEIR model analysis. J Med Virol, p. 0–3, 2020.
(Andreoni, M. Coronavirus in Brazil: What You Need to Know. New York Times. New York, July, 2, 2020. Available in: https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html accessed in: Jul. 7, 2020. 07:07.)
Andreoni, M. Coronavirus in Brazil: What You Need to Know. New York Times. New York, July, 2, 2020. Available in: https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html accessed in: Jul. 7, 2020. 07:07.Andreoni, M. Coronavirus in Brazil: What You Need to Know. New York Times. New York, July, 2, 2020. Available in: https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html accessed in: Jul. 7, 2020. 07:07., Andreoni, M. Coronavirus in Brazil: What You Need to Know. New York Times. New York, July, 2, 2020. Available in: https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html accessed in: Jul. 7, 2020. 07:07.
(2020)
Clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infection in Chinamedrxiv, 34
(Li, X. et al. Risk factors for severity and mortality in adult COVID-19 inpatients in Wuhan. J Allergy Clin Immunol, 2020.)
Li, X. et al. Risk factors for severity and mortality in adult COVID-19 inpatients in Wuhan. J Allergy Clin Immunol, 2020.Li, X. et al. Risk factors for severity and mortality in adult COVID-19 inpatients in Wuhan. J Allergy Clin Immunol, 2020., Li, X. et al. Risk factors for severity and mortality in adult COVID-19 inpatients in Wuhan. J Allergy Clin Immunol, 2020.
(Shin, H. South Korea extends intensive social distancing to reach 50 daily coronavirus cases. REUTERS. New York, April 3, 2020. World News. Available: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-extends-intensive-social-distancing-to-reach-50-daily-coronavirus-cases-idUSKBN21M02P, accessed in April 17, 2020, 09:45.)
Shin, H. South Korea extends intensive social distancing to reach 50 daily coronavirus cases. REUTERS. New York, April 3, 2020. World News. Available: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-extends-intensive-social-distancing-to-reach-50-daily-coronavirus-cases-idUSKBN21M02P, accessed in April 17, 2020, 09:45.Shin, H. South Korea extends intensive social distancing to reach 50 daily coronavirus cases. REUTERS. New York, April 3, 2020. World News. Available: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-extends-intensive-social-distancing-to-reach-50-daily-coronavirus-cases-idUSKBN21M02P, accessed in April 17, 2020, 09:45., Shin, H. South Korea extends intensive social distancing to reach 50 daily coronavirus cases. REUTERS. New York, April 3, 2020. World News. Available: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-extends-intensive-social-distancing-to-reach-50-daily-coronavirus-cases-idUSKBN21M02P, accessed in April 17, 2020, 09:45.
(Hasell, J. et al. To understand the global pandemic, we need global testing—the Our World in Data COVID-19 Testing dataset. Our World in Data, Mar 31, 2020. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Available in: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing, accessed in: Apr. 17, 2020. 19:07.)
Hasell, J. et al. To understand the global pandemic, we need global testing—the Our World in Data COVID-19 Testing dataset. Our World in Data, Mar 31, 2020. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Available in: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing, accessed in: Apr. 17, 2020. 19:07.Hasell, J. et al. To understand the global pandemic, we need global testing—the Our World in Data COVID-19 Testing dataset. Our World in Data, Mar 31, 2020. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Available in: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing, accessed in: Apr. 17, 2020. 19:07., Hasell, J. et al. To understand the global pandemic, we need global testing—the Our World in Data COVID-19 Testing dataset. Our World in Data, Mar 31, 2020. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Available in: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing, accessed in: Apr. 17, 2020. 19:07.
(2020)
Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamicsJ Clin Virol, 128
(2020)
Early spread of SARS-Cov-2 in the Icelandic populationN Engl J Med, 382
(Abutaleb Y, et al. The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged. The Washington Post. Washington, Apr., 4, 2020. Available in: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national security/2020/04/04/coronavirus-government-dysfunction/?arc404=true, accessed in Apr.16, 2020. 9:55.)
Abutaleb Y, et al. The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged. The Washington Post. Washington, Apr., 4, 2020. Available in: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national security/2020/04/04/coronavirus-government-dysfunction/?arc404=true, accessed in Apr.16, 2020. 9:55.Abutaleb Y, et al. The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged. The Washington Post. Washington, Apr., 4, 2020. Available in: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national security/2020/04/04/coronavirus-government-dysfunction/?arc404=true, accessed in Apr.16, 2020. 9:55., Abutaleb Y, et al. The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged. The Washington Post. Washington, Apr., 4, 2020. Available in: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national security/2020/04/04/coronavirus-government-dysfunction/?arc404=true, accessed in Apr.16, 2020. 9:55.
(Walker, PGT. et al. The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression. Imperial College, n. March, p. 1–19, 2020.)
Walker, PGT. et al. The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression. Imperial College, n. March, p. 1–19, 2020.Walker, PGT. et al. The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression. Imperial College, n. March, p. 1–19, 2020., Walker, PGT. et al. The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression. Imperial College, n. March, p. 1–19, 2020.
(2020)
Data-based analysis, modelling and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreakPLoS One, 15
(2020)
Estimating the final epidemic size for COVID-19medRxiv, 1
(WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19. World Health Organization (WHO) 2020. Available in: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19%2D%2D-30-march-2020, accessed in Apr. 17, 2020. 10:40.)
WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19. World Health Organization (WHO) 2020. Available in: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19%2D%2D-30-march-2020, accessed in Apr. 17, 2020. 10:40.WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19. World Health Organization (WHO) 2020. Available in: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19%2D%2D-30-march-2020, accessed in Apr. 17, 2020. 10:40., WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19. World Health Organization (WHO) 2020. Available in: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19%2D%2D-30-march-2020, accessed in Apr. 17, 2020. 10:40.
(Ferguson, N. M. et al. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand. Imperial College, March, 2020.)
Ferguson, N. M. et al. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand. Imperial College, March, 2020.Ferguson, N. M. et al. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand. Imperial College, March, 2020., Ferguson, N. M. et al. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand. Imperial College, March, 2020.
(Wang, J. et al. High temperature and high humidity reduce the transmission of COVID-19. SSRN Electron J, 2020.)
Wang, J. et al. High temperature and high humidity reduce the transmission of COVID-19. SSRN Electron J, 2020.Wang, J. et al. High temperature and high humidity reduce the transmission of COVID-19. SSRN Electron J, 2020., Wang, J. et al. High temperature and high humidity reduce the transmission of COVID-19. SSRN Electron J, 2020.
(Tondo, L. Italian hospitals short of beds as coronavirus death toll jumps. The Guardian. Palermo, Mar.09, 2020. Available in: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/italian-hospitals-short-beds-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps, accessed in: Apr., 17, 2020. 11:00.)
Tondo, L. Italian hospitals short of beds as coronavirus death toll jumps. The Guardian. Palermo, Mar.09, 2020. Available in: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/italian-hospitals-short-beds-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps, accessed in: Apr., 17, 2020. 11:00.Tondo, L. Italian hospitals short of beds as coronavirus death toll jumps. The Guardian. Palermo, Mar.09, 2020. Available in: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/italian-hospitals-short-beds-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps, accessed in: Apr., 17, 2020. 11:00., Tondo, L. Italian hospitals short of beds as coronavirus death toll jumps. The Guardian. Palermo, Mar.09, 2020. Available in: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/italian-hospitals-short-beds-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps, accessed in: Apr., 17, 2020. 11:00.
(2020)
The origin, transmission and clinical therapies on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak – an update on the statusMilitary Medical Research, 7
(Verity R, Dorigatti I, Winskill P, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus deases 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020. 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7.)
Verity R, Dorigatti I, Winskill P, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus deases 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020. 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7.Verity R, Dorigatti I, Winskill P, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus deases 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020. 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7., Verity R, Dorigatti I, Winskill P, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus deases 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020. 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7.
(Wu, J. T. et al. Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China. Nature Medicine, p. 1–5, 2020.)
Wu, J. T. et al. Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China. Nature Medicine, p. 1–5, 2020.Wu, J. T. et al. Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China. Nature Medicine, p. 1–5, 2020., Wu, J. T. et al. Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China. Nature Medicine, p. 1–5, 2020.
IntroductionIn December 2019, China reported a series of atypical pneumonia cases caused by a new Coronavirus, called COVID-19. In response to the rapid global dissemination of the virus, on the 11th of Mars, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak a pandemic. Considering this situation, this paper intends to analyze and improve the current SEIR models to better represent the behavior of the COVID-19 and accurately predict the outcome of the pandemic in each social, economic, and political scenario.MethodologyWe present a generalized Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model and test it using a global optimization algorithm with data collected from the WHO.ResultsThe main results were: (a) Our model was able to accurately fit the either deaths or active cases data of all tested countries using optimized coefficient values in agreement with recent reports; (b) when trying to fit both sets of data at the same time, fit was good for most countries, but not all. (c) Using our model, large ranges for each input, and optimization we predict death values for 15, 30, 45, and 60 days ahead with errors in the order of 5, 10, 20, and 80%, respectively; (d) sudden changes in the number of active cases cannot be predicted by the model unless data from outside sources are used.ConclusionThe results suggest that the presented model may be used to predict 15 days ahead values of total deaths with errors in the order of 5%. These errors may be minimized if social distance data are inputted into the model.
Research on Biomedical Engineering – Springer Journals
Published: Mar 1, 2022
Keywords: COVID-19; Compartmental model; Active cases; Deaths; Epidemiological model predictions
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.