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Climate change simulated by full and mixed-layer ocean versions of CSIRO Mk3.5 and Mk3.0: Large-scale sensitivity

Climate change simulated by full and mixed-layer ocean versions of CSIRO Mk3.5 and Mk3.0:... Abstract The CSIRO Mk3.5 coupled atmosphere-ocean model includes upgrades to atmospheric and oceanic processes that remove a cold bias of the earlier Mk3.0. The global mean warming over the 21st century from Mk3.5 is 3.1 K under the CMIP3 A1B scenario, some 25% larger than that from Mk3.0. Two mixed-layer ocean versions of Mk3.5 were constructed, and these are also more sensitive than Mk3.0. To elucidate these differences, a simple feedback analysis is extended to Mk3.5, using changes for doubled CO2 in each model version. The net feedback for the low-mid latitude region is the main driver of the sensitivity contrast. The clear-sky component is consistently larger in Mk3.5, as is the increase in specific humidity, even after standardizing by the global warming. Cloud forcing provides a small positive feedback, which is stronger in cases that had larger declines in low-layer cloud. The net positive feedback for the higher-latitude region is larger in the coupled Mk3.5 than Mk3.0, which had more stable Arctic sea ice. However, some contrasts differed among the versions. As for Mk3.0, the surface warming in the coupled Mk3.5 is suppressed over that from the MLO case. Over the ocean, the pattern of suppression is similar to the change in energy flux into the surface in the coupled model. There is also a gradient of equatorial warming in the Asia-Pacific region that relates to the change in net convergence of heat transport by ocean currents. The effect of this pattern on regional rainfall is a focus of Part 2 of the study. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png "Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences" Springer Journals

Climate change simulated by full and mixed-layer ocean versions of CSIRO Mk3.5 and Mk3.0: Large-scale sensitivity

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References (36)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
2013 Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
ISSN
1976-7633
eISSN
1976-7951
DOI
10.1007/s13143-013-0035-9
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Abstract The CSIRO Mk3.5 coupled atmosphere-ocean model includes upgrades to atmospheric and oceanic processes that remove a cold bias of the earlier Mk3.0. The global mean warming over the 21st century from Mk3.5 is 3.1 K under the CMIP3 A1B scenario, some 25% larger than that from Mk3.0. Two mixed-layer ocean versions of Mk3.5 were constructed, and these are also more sensitive than Mk3.0. To elucidate these differences, a simple feedback analysis is extended to Mk3.5, using changes for doubled CO2 in each model version. The net feedback for the low-mid latitude region is the main driver of the sensitivity contrast. The clear-sky component is consistently larger in Mk3.5, as is the increase in specific humidity, even after standardizing by the global warming. Cloud forcing provides a small positive feedback, which is stronger in cases that had larger declines in low-layer cloud. The net positive feedback for the higher-latitude region is larger in the coupled Mk3.5 than Mk3.0, which had more stable Arctic sea ice. However, some contrasts differed among the versions. As for Mk3.0, the surface warming in the coupled Mk3.5 is suppressed over that from the MLO case. Over the ocean, the pattern of suppression is similar to the change in energy flux into the surface in the coupled model. There is also a gradient of equatorial warming in the Asia-Pacific region that relates to the change in net convergence of heat transport by ocean currents. The effect of this pattern on regional rainfall is a focus of Part 2 of the study.

Journal

"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences" – Springer Journals

Published: May 1, 2013

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