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A Tale of Two Countries: Changes to Canadian and U.S. Senior Population Projections due to the Pandemic—Implications for Health Care Planning in Canada and Other Western Countries

A Tale of Two Countries: Changes to Canadian and U.S. Senior Population Projections due to the... To examine COVID-19 mortality demographics to determine if there will be any substantive shifts in population forecasts that will impact health and long-term care planning for seniors in both countries. Demographic data from Statistics Canada and the U.S. Census Bureau to 2060 are adjusted for COVID-19 age-group-specific mortality and then projected forward in five-year increments. These projections are then annualized using a linear imputation between each projected value. Consideration is given to the seniors 65 + , 75 + and 85 + as well as dependency ratios of each age category. Forecasts suggest that the proportion of seniors in the population will roughly plateau in 2035 at approximately 21% (U.S.) and 24% (Canada)–with another uptick observed beginning in 2050 for those aged 75 + . Adjustments due to the pandemic have had little impact on these projections suggesting that–unless there is a major shift in the demographics of pandemic-related mortality–the resource planning implications will be largely inconsequential. Investments in resources to serve seniors need not be done with the intention to repurpose these assets before they are fully depleted. While the demonstrated demographic plateau is likely to hold steady, there is uncertainty around the expected rate of decline in the health of seniors. Depending on this trajectory, community-level social supports could play a large role in lengthening the duration of senior health and independence. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Population Ageing Springer Journals

A Tale of Two Countries: Changes to Canadian and U.S. Senior Population Projections due to the Pandemic—Implications for Health Care Planning in Canada and Other Western Countries

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References (57)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2022. corrected publication 2022. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
ISSN
1874-7884
eISSN
1874-7876
DOI
10.1007/s12062-022-09397-z
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

To examine COVID-19 mortality demographics to determine if there will be any substantive shifts in population forecasts that will impact health and long-term care planning for seniors in both countries. Demographic data from Statistics Canada and the U.S. Census Bureau to 2060 are adjusted for COVID-19 age-group-specific mortality and then projected forward in five-year increments. These projections are then annualized using a linear imputation between each projected value. Consideration is given to the seniors 65 + , 75 + and 85 + as well as dependency ratios of each age category. Forecasts suggest that the proportion of seniors in the population will roughly plateau in 2035 at approximately 21% (U.S.) and 24% (Canada)–with another uptick observed beginning in 2050 for those aged 75 + . Adjustments due to the pandemic have had little impact on these projections suggesting that–unless there is a major shift in the demographics of pandemic-related mortality–the resource planning implications will be largely inconsequential. Investments in resources to serve seniors need not be done with the intention to repurpose these assets before they are fully depleted. While the demonstrated demographic plateau is likely to hold steady, there is uncertainty around the expected rate of decline in the health of seniors. Depending on this trajectory, community-level social supports could play a large role in lengthening the duration of senior health and independence.

Journal

Journal of Population AgeingSpringer Journals

Published: Mar 1, 2023

Keywords: Demographics; Seniors; Social Supports; Health; Human Resources; Demographic trends; Macroeconomic effects; Forecasts

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