A review on the multi-criteria seismic hazard analysis of Ethiopia: with implications of infrastructural development

Alemayehu Ayele; Kifle Woldearegay; Matebie Meten

doi:10.1186/s40677-020-00175-7

A review on the multi-criteria seismic hazard analysis of Ethiopia: with implications of infrastructural development

Ayele, Alemayehu; Woldearegay, Kifle; Meten, Matebie 2021-04-19 00:00:00 Earthquake is a sudden release of energy due to faults. Natural calamities like earthquakes can neither be predicted nor prevented. However, the severity of the damages can be minimized by development of proper infrastructure which includes microzonation studies, appropriate construction procedures and earthquake resistant designs. The earthquake damaging effect depends on the source, path and site conditions. The earthquake ground motion is affected by topography (slope, hill, valley, canyon, ridge and basin effects), groundwater and surface hydrology. The seismic hazard damages are ground shaking, structural damage, retaining structure failures and lifeline hazards. The medium to large earthquake magnitude (< 6) reported in Ethiopia are controlled by the main Ethiopian rift System. The spatial and temporal variation of earthquake ground motion should be addressed using the following systematic methodology. The general approaches used to analyze damage of earthquake ground motions are probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA) and dynamic site response analysis. PSHA considers all the scenarios of magnitude, distance and site conditions to estimate the intensity of ground motion distribution. Conversely, DSHA taken into account the worst case scenarios or maximum credible earthquake to estimate the intensity of seismic ground motion distribution. Furthermore, to design critical infrastructures, DSHA is more valuable than PSHA. The DSHA and PSHA ground motion distributions are estimated as a function of earthquake magnitude and distance using ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) at top of the bedrock. Site response analysis performed to estimate the ground motion distributions at ground surface using dynamic properties of the soils such as shear wave velocity, density, modulus reduction, and material damping curves. Seismic hazard evaluation of Ethiopia shown that (i) amplification is occurred in the main Ethiopian Rift due to thick soil, (ii) the probability of earthquake recurrence due to active fault sources. The situation of active fault is oriented in the N-S direction. Ethiopia is involved in huge infrastructural development (including roads, industrial parks and railways), increasing population and agricultural activity in the main Ethiopian Rift system. In this activity, socio-economic development, earthquake and earthquake-generated ground failures need to be given attention in order to reduce losses from seismic hazards and create safe geo-environment. Keywords: Earthquake hazard analysis, DSHA, PSHA, Dynamic response analysis, Ethiopia * Correspondence: alex98geo@gmail.com Department of Geology, College of Applied Science, Addis Ababa Science and Technology University, P.O.Box. 16417, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 2 of 22 Background would continue to increase unless appropriate actions The geo-hazard associated with earthquake is seismic are taken in the Ethiopia. In order to bring the issue of hazards. An earthquake is sudden natural calamities that seismic hazard and associated geo-hazards into attention occur all over the world and confined seismically prone the academia, decision makers and concerned organiza- areas (Meissner 2002). tions is used this review paper. Earthquake related geo-hazard is the probability of a potentially damaging phenomenon occurring within a Methods of site Characterization specified period of time and given area (Varnes 1984); Site characterization used as an input data to determine however, the severity of the damages can be minimized seismic hazard assessment and microzonation. This in- by proper infrastructure based on microzonation and volves acquisition, simulation and interpretation of seismic design codes (Sitharam and Anbazhagan 2008; qualitative and quantitative information about the site of Nath and Jakka 2012). interest. Seismic site characterization can be carried The seismic microzonation studies are the most cru- using geological, seismological, geomorphological, cial methods used to mitigate primary and secondary hydrogeological, and standard penetration test and seismic hazard effects such as liquefaction, ground shak- multichannel analysis of surface waves (Prasad and ing, lateral spreading, structural failure, and landslide, Vijayendra 2017; Alemu et al. 2018). The step to be tsunami, flood and fire (Kramer 1996; US Department of followed for site characterization (Anbazhagan 2013)is Transportation 1997; Nath and Jakka 2012). given in Fig. 1. The earthquake ground motion at a site is controlled by source, path and site conditions (Kramer 1996). The Geological and seismological studies earthquake ground motion increases with increasing Earthquake ground motion depends on magnitude, dis- earthquake magnitude and decreasing distance from tance and geology (Kramer 1996). As a result, geological source; however, the site conditions such as geologic set- and seismological studies are very important to determine ting, topography, slope and dynamic soil properties show rock type, active fault activity, fault type, fault rupture strong variations in earthquake ground shaking inten- length, recurrence interval, size of the earthquake, focal sities than source and path effects (Aki 1998; Borcherdt depth, epicentral distance and site effect, source identifica- and Glassmoyer 1970 Boore et al. 1997; Harmsen 1997; tion, rupture area, earthquake catalog and earthquake Ambrasey and Douglas 2003; Adel et al. 2013; Panjamani declustering (e.g. Kramer 1996;Ayele 2000;Boore 2003; et al. 2018). Moreover, to overcome local site amplifica- Jack and Baker 2008;Ayele 2017). In the Ethiopia, some tion effects, seismic microzonation is recommended works were done on the characterization of focal depth using integrated geotechnical and geophysical investiga- mechanism (source parameter) and epicentral distance tion (e.g. Panjamani et al. 2018; Kramer 1996; Panjamani along the seismic prone area of the Main Ethiopian et al. 2018). Rift System (Gouin 1979; Kebede and Van Eck 1996; The methodologies to be used for seismic hazard Midzi et al. 1999; Ayele 2000; Wilks et al. 2017; Ayele microzonations are probabilistic seismic hazard assess- 2017; Muluneh et al. 2018), however, data complete- ment (PSHA) and deterministic hazard assessment ness or earthquake catalogue to determine accurate (DSHA) (Kramer 1996; TC4- ISSMGE 1999; Anbazha- source and path need to be attention on the seismic gan et al. 2016). Ethiopia country started building infra- prone area of Ethiopia. The effect of geology on structure on the active Main Ethiopian rift or earthquake ground motion amplification effect is not continental rift margin due to the suitability of land. In studied in Ethiopia. So, it is recommendable to assess addition to that, villages, modern towns and cities are the damage of infrastructure and loss of property hosting multistory building, industrial park, roads, power using site specific seismic microzonation. plant, recreational site and railway, dams with consider- able population density. Nearly all of the major towns in Remote sensing and GIS- based characterization Ethiopia are located either within the rift floor or near Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System the rift margins where earthquake hazard is relatively (GIS) designed to characterize seismic site effects based resulting in high earthquake risk (Ayele 2000; Ayele on the interpretation of geomorphology and geology 2017). Geotechnical studies as reported by Ayalew et al. (Alan et al. 2008; Ayele 2017). Furthermore, geotechnical (2004) revealed that along Main Ethiopian Rift System information has extracted from surface information like earth fissuring or cracks were occurred during heavy topographic maps, satellite images, surface geologies, rain fall and causes property loss. With the on-going in- and digital elevation model (DEM), Shuttle Radar Topo- frastructural development, urbanization and rural devel- graphic Mission (SRTM) and Advanced Space borne opment, it is foreseeable that the frequency and Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER). magnitude of earthquake and losses due to such hazards Farr and Kobrick (2000) and Wald and Allen (2007) Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 3 of 22 Fig. 1 Steps to be followed for site characterization in seismic assessment and microzonation (Anbazhagan 2013) demonstrated that Shuttle Radar Topography Mission liquefaction not likely. History of liquefaction is not doc- (SRTM) model used for mapping seismic site conditions umented in the past, nevertheless, due to shallow ground using average shear wave velocity to 30 m depth. The water table, marshy environment, occurrence of lakes, steep hill slopes are high shear wave velocity than flat collapsible soil and liquefaction susceptibility soil on the basins. So, average shear wave velocity is applicable in Main Ethiopian Rift System needs to be assessed to re- regions where transition of steep hill slopes and flat ba- duce socio-economic impact. sins (dynamic landscapes). On this regard, mapping of Ethiopia border faults (BF) of the rifts margin, magmatic Geohydrological response analysis segments and internal faults of the Wonji fault belt Earthquakes change a static stress (i.e., the offset of the (WFB) along the main Ethiopian Rift system were re- fault generates a static change in stress of the crust) into ported (Simkin et al. 2003; Agostini et al. 2011; Ayele dynamic stresses (from the seismic waves) (Manga and 2017), but the damaging effect of the active Wonji fault Wang 2015). The static and dynamic stress increase as belt, earth fissuring, spatial variation of shear wave vel- the seismic moment of the earthquake, but they decay ocity from rift margin to rift floor relative to the infra- very differently with distance. Loose soil deposit and structure is poorly constrained. water table at shallow depth may result in an excessive settlement and liquefaction due to dynamic loading. Geomorphologic studies Also, deep sedimentation widely affects the spectral Iwasaki (1982) and Wakamatsu (1992) revealed that the period and surface amplification (Fritz et al. 2013). The susceptibility of different geomorphological units are liquefaction effect due to earthquake ground motion subjected to ground motion: (a) present river bed, old near and far epicentral distance in the Ethiopia are not river bed, swamp, reclaimed land and inter-dune low as studied. Due to poor evaluation of liquefaction effect in liquefaction likely, (b) fan, natural levee, sand dune, the Ethiopia can cause damage to civil engineering struc- flood plain, beach and other plains land as liquefaction tures. As a result, site characterization should possibly, and (c) terrace, hill and mountain as Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 4 of 22 incorporate saturated soil interaction with ground mo- prepared from shear wave velocity profile to determine tion during seismic site microzonation. the site classes according to Eurocode-8 (2003), NEHRP (BSSC 2015b), International Building Code (IBC 2009), Standard penetration test (SPT) Ministry of Construction 2015 and NEHRP (BSSC 2015a, SPT is widely used direct in-situ test within a borehole Dobry et al. 2000; Kanli et al. 2006). Averaged shear-wave to determine dynamic properties of soil (Anbazhagan et velocity up to depth of 30 m is correlated with site amplifi- al. 2019). Furthermore, it generally used to investigate cation (Aki and Richards 1980; Anbazhagan and Sitharam cohesionless soil or relatively stiff soil. The variability of 2008; Anbazhagan et al. 2010). Finally, the average shear the equipment and procedures has significant effects on wave velocity (Vs ) of soil and rock property used to de- obtained blow counts (Seed et al. 1985; Skempton 1986). termine shear modulus (G) of the soil, damping ratio, Geotechnical site characterization requires a full 3D rep- overburden pressure, void ratio, geologic age, cementa- resentation of stratigraphy, estimation of geotechnical tion, overconsolidation ratio and strain rate (Hardin and parameters and hydro-geological conditions (Ishihara Drnevich 1972; Dobry and Vucetic 1987a, 1987b;Casto et 2003). Earthquake ground motion can be changed due al. 2009;Maheshwari et al. 2013; Mekonen and Kebede to stiffness or shear modulus and damping of the soil. 2011;Gashaye 2018). If the average velocity up to 30 m Ground failure, site response and liquefaction are depth is not well known, it could be calculated by extrapo- strongly influenced by dynamic properties of soil (Kra- lation based on constant velocity, power law relation and mer 1996). proposed method (Boore 2004;Avouac et al. 2015;Bajaj Soils are highly nonlinear even at very low strains. The and Anbazhagan 2019a, 2019b). Statistical analysis re- nonlinearity causes soil stiffness to decrease and damping vealed that proposed method is more reliable than con- to increase with increasing strain amplitude. In this re- stant velocity and power law relation (Boore 2004). gard, geotechnical site conditions play an important role Seismic waves cross rock–soil interface, propagate on damage distribution as well as in the recorded strong through the soil column, the ground motion is generally motion (Ishihara 1997;Aki 1998;Tertulliani 2000;Hart- amplified and its magnitude depends on soil type, soil zell et al. 2001;Özelet al. 2002). A set of correlation be- thickness, soil stiffness, and impedance contrast with the tween SPT-N values and Vs has proposed on the soil type, underlying bedrock (Mammo 2005). In this context, the depth and geological age (Dikmen 2009; Kuo et al. 2012). seismic hazard evaluation based on the Vs of Ethiopia The statistical correlations between SPT-N values and Vs (Afar depression, escarpment and Main Ethiopian Rift for all soils (gravel, sand, silt and clay) are obtained by lin- System) is not well done and incorporating as a hazard ear regression (Dikmen 2009). The high correlation coeffi- during geological study. cient between Vs and SPT-N value shown that SPT-N value has a major effect in Vs estimation. Finally, SPT data Standards (adopting codes) used to determine plasticity limit, shear strength, density According to Natural Earthquake Hazard Reduction and cohesion to build engineering structure is applicable Provisions (NEHRP) (BSSC 2015b), International Build- for site specific seismic site characterization (Kokusho ing Code classification (IBC 2009), Dobry et al. 2000; 1980;Kokusho 1987; Atkinson and Sallfors 1991;Pitilakis Kanli et al. 2006, Rodriguez-Marek et al. 2001) seismic et al. 1992;Ishihara 1993; Wazoh and Mallo 2014). site characterization for calculating seismic hazard evalu- Ethiopia, along the Main Ethiopian Rift System, intensive ation is carried out based on the average shear wave vel- urban development and agricultural activity has been tak- ocity (Vs ) and SPT-N values. The current Ethiopian ing place in the past, present and future which is a very building seismic code ES EN 1998: 2015 served as a basis worrying process without considering seismic hazard for the seismic zoning of Ethiopia with a return period evaluation to save our life. of 100 years corresponds to 0.01 annual probability of exceedance (Kebede and Asfaw 1996; Kebede and Van Multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) Eck 1996; Kebede and Van Eck 1997), however, Ethiop- Multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) is an ian building seismic code (Ministry of Construction indirect geophysical method used to determine shear 2015) is inadequate, incomplete and non-cognizant due wave velocity of geomaterials (soil and rock) (Park et al. to; i) neglecting local site effects, local fault lines, topog- 1999; Elin et al. 2017). MASW uses active and passive raphy and soil conditions that could amplify earthquake source to generate seismic wave and map weathered and ground motion (Asfaw 1982), ii) considers a return engineering bed rock (Enke et al. 2008; Anbazhagan and period of 100 years as compared to 475 years return Sitharam 2008). It measures surface (Raleigh waves) to period (10% probability of exceedance in 50 years) and generate shear wave velocity profile of dispersion curve reduces peak ground acceleration by half (Mekonnen by inversion (Park et al. 1999; Elin et al. 2017). In 1995) and iii) the catalogue of earthquakes for the addition to that, average shear wave velocity (Vs )is current seismic zoning extended up to 1990 and recent Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 5 of 22 or new occurred earthquake in the Ethiopia is not in- structures (Douglas 2001;Kassegneetal. 2012; Alemu et al. cluded (Asfaw 2003). On this regard, recent expansion 2018). on the planning and construction of major building structures as well as infrastructures (including railways, Source mass housing, dams, bridges, electric transmission line, Seismic sources are generally characterized on a fault- industrial park) needs to be update of seismic design specific basis by geometry (location, length, dip angle, code in Ethiopia with 475 years return-period. depth and distance to the site), seismic potential (earthquake magnitude, activity, recurrence), and style Site amplification of faulting (strike slip, dip slip, or oblique slip) (Kra- The effects of site amplification were observed at some mer 1996). Source effects are combined effect of locations during the Mexico (1985) and Loma Prieta earthquake magnitude as well as the characteristics of (1989) earthquakes due to overlying thick soft soil (Stone slip distribution within the fault (Mohamed 2003). et al. 1987; Seed and Harder 1990). The same authors The spatial and temporal character of slip fault that reported that site amplification was directly related with rupture due to an earthquake as shown in the Fig. 2 seismic hazard and depends on soil strength, thickness is the central part to predict the ground motion of soil layer and type of soil. The site amplification con- (Brown 2001). Furthermore, the source effect is firmed, by various scholars (e.g. Borcherdt and Glass- dependent on input motion, frequency and wave moyer 1970; Cox et al. 2007; Anbazhagan and Sitharam length. At the present in Ethiopia and its neighboring 2008; Anbazhagan et al. 2009; Mukherjee et al. 2014), countries, detailed Quaternary fault maps or active evaluated empirically using shear wave velocity and faults characteristics like geometry, slip direction and SPT-N values. The site amplification due to local soil segmentation lengths are not available. In addition to conditions (alluvium thick soil cover) and topographic that, accurate hypocentral and epicentral locations effect in the Addis Ababa was highlighted by Asfaw (depth and epicentral distance) determinations are in- (1982), however, he didn’t determine using systematic sufficient to identify individual seismically active faults approach. On this look, Ethiopia metropolitan city which (Kebede and Van Eck 1997). is covered with thick soil and undulating topography need to be studied further for damage reduction of large infrastructures and life. Path Path effects can modify as it propagates through earths’ crust and strongly control ground motion (Kramer Factors affecting site amplification 1996). In addition, the same material during propagation Along the vicinity, it was noted that source, travel path (dis- of seismic waves can amplify and attenuate at the same tance), magnitude of earthquake and geology (soil and time. This is due to damping ratio and is very high at rock), topography, depth to groundwater, basin effect, slope high frequency than at low frequency (Kramer 1996). Fi- and deep soil affect the degree of strong ground motion nally, the attenuation of seismic wave amplitude with (Asfaw 1982; Seed and Schnabel 1972; Seed et al. 1986b; distance as shown in Fig. 2 is caused by material or vis- Schnabel et al. 1991;Kramer 1996;Douglas 2001, 2003; cous damping (absorption) and geometry of wave propa- Mammo 2005; Bommer et al. 2012). Moreover, estimating gation (radiation damping or scattering) (Kramer 1996). their effects can entirely lead to design proper engineering Fig. 2 Ground motion at source, path and Geology (Kramer 1996) Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 6 of 22 Site Conditions has been attributed to topographic amplification of The local geology conditions have profound influence on earthquake motion. In this case, Ethiopia has contains site response of many earthquakes. Local surface geology the Afar Depression, escarpment and Ethiopian Rift Sys- and dwelling characteristics are the most commonly tem (ERS) seismic source zone (Mammo 2005). On claimed factors which influence effects of earthquakes as these three seismic source zones, many earthquake activ- documented in the recent destructive earthquakes of ities (magnitude <7) with associated life lost and damage Michoacan 1985, Loma Prieta, 1989, Kobe 1995 and Izmit, were reported (Gouin 1979; Asfaw 1990; Wilks et al. 1999 1985 Mexico City, 1989 Loma Prieta, 1994 North- 2017; Fardin et al. 2015; Ayele 2017; Midzi et al. 1999), ridge, and 1995 Kobe earthquakes (Seed et al. 1986a; however, they didn’t work on how topographic effect Chang et al. 1996;Chenet al, 2000). Borcherdt (1970)has amplify or deamplify earthquake ground motion and demonstrated that both theoretical and empirical methods damage of infrastructure in Ethiopia. on near surface geology of site amplification. The geomor- phological situations can contribute to the amplification Depth to groundwater of ground motion that exhibited by topography, basin and The presence of water in the subsurface, and changes in edge effects and lithological contacts. Concentration and/ the amount of water on the surface or within the subsur- or sharp variations in the severity of damage are com- face, can influence the occurrence of earthquakes monly attributed to transitions between soft and hard rock (Manga and Wang 2015). More recent research in the lithologies. The numerical models and real case histories United States has attempted to use monitoring of have shown strong correlation between damage and sur- groundwater levels in wells to predict earthquake activity face geology (Midorikawa 1987; Spudich et al. 1997). More (Moyle 1980). specifically, an increase of significant effects has been evi- Research on earthquake mechanisms indicated that denced near the edge of soft basins (Rovelli 1998). Kramer groundwater played a significant and direct role in many (1996) produced a model on ground motion propagation large earthquakes (Manga and Wang 2007). The ground- from source to site (as shown in Fig. 2). In this regards, water can magnify damaging effects of ground surface. some authors in the Ethiopia (e.g Mammo 2005;Worku The effect of earthquake on groundwater can change 2013) tried to consider local site conditions without in- temperature, geochemistry and pressure and it could be corporating topographic effect, but still remain poorly analyzed by monitoring wells before and after earth- considered. Ethiopia is fast growing country and currently quake (Manga and Wang 2007). running many mega and mini-projects without consider- Ayalew et al. (2004) attempted to show the effect of ing local site condition to address seismic hazard. rain fall on earth fissuring or crack’s on the Main rift valley. Ethiopia have many lakes, springs, and rivers, and Topography numerous cities with construction associated with it, but Amplification of seismic waves in the presence of topo- there is no study still on the effect of water to earth- graphic irregularities is advocated as one of the possible quake ground motion (liquefaction) in view of civil en- causes of earthquakes damage as shown in the Fig. 3.As gineering structures. As a result, it is need to be work reported in different earthquake cases like the 1985 using systematic approach to make our environment safe Canal Beagle Chile earthquake (Celebi 1987; Jafarzadeh and sustainable to life. The response of groundwater and et al. 2015), Whittier Narrows 1987 earthquake (Kawase surface water to earthquakes is complex and occurs on 1990), Aegion Greece 1995 earthquake (Bouckovalas et varying timescales through a number of different mecha- al. 1999; Bouckovalas and Papadimitriou 2005) and nisms. The relationship between earth quakes and Athens Greece 1999 earthquake (Gazetas et al. 2002) groundwater processes is presented in Fig. 4. shown that unusually severe earthquake induced damage Fig. 3 Idealized examples of surface irregularities and subsurface irregularities (Naganoh et al. 1993) Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 7 of 22 Fig. 4 Relationships between earthquakes and groundwater processes (adapted from: http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~manga/eps200-2006.html Basin effect Furthermore, Vittoz et al. (2001) concluded that amplifi- The presence of softer alluvial soils and curvature of cation is usually proportional to the ratio of depth (D) basin will amplify ground motion and increase the dur- over width (W). The relationship of slope and ground ation of motion. King and Tucker (1984) found that the motion amplification is shown in the Fig. 7. As Ethiopia, one dimensional ground response analysis can predict no systematic comparison of slope angle on seismic the ground response only at the centre of the basin and wave amplification was made for the entire reported not at the edges. This variation will have significant ef- seismic hazard (Gouin 1979; Asfaw 1990; Wilks et al. fect on the design of long span structures like bridges 2017; Ayele 2017; Midzi et al. 1999). All the authors and pipe lines which are crossing the valley. listed here gave some effort on the determination of Ashford and Sitar (1997) reported that the slope angle source parameter (depth of the focus) and epicentral dis- of 15% - 25% will create the maximum amplification. tance using mathematical models, tectonic and geo- They find ridges at the top of the hills will amplify the logical knowledge. But, Ethiopia has been practiced large seismic waves and valleys will attenuate the seismic population and agricultural activity in the Main Ethiop- waves. Vittoz et al. (2001) and Graves (1996) have devel- ian rift and Escarpments so that the effect of slope on oped a basin effect model in terms of amplification (Fig. the ground motion amplification needs to be assessed 5 and Fig. 6). on the context of economic, social and live aspects. Slope Deep soil Fiore (2010) reported that the amplification is a linear The analyses of strong motion records found that the function of slope. The same author has been evaluated difference of stiffness between the overlying soil and site amplification values for different slope angles and underlying bedrock that affect the amplitude, frequency found that the amplification due to topography will be and duration of seismic waves (Idriss 1990). more at the crest of the slope than bottom of the slope. Fig. 5 Propagation of seismic wave on one layer soil and basin case (Vittoz et al. 2001) Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 8 of 22 Fig. 6 Effect of basin on ground motion as the wave propagates from #1 to #5 (Graves 1996; Vittoz et al. 2001) These effects were observed during the Mexico (1985) function of earthquake magnitude and distance, ground and the Loma Prieta (1989) earthquakes (e.g. Seed et al. motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from the bed rock 1986b, Chang et al. 1996). The spectral acceleration his- where time-averaged shear wave velocity in the top 30 m tory at deep soil clearly illustrates that greater effect on (Vs ) greater or equal to 760 m/s. The site response seismic wave than rock (Chen and Scawthorn 2003). In analysis is determined using geotechnical investigation Ethiopia context, nearly all deep soil effect on earth- like shear wave velocity, density, modulus reduction, and quake ground motion is not done by previous re- material damping curves, cyclic stress ratio and cyclic re- searchers (Gouin 1979; Wilks et al. 2017 Ayele 2017). sistance ratio (Seed et al. 1986a; Idriss and Sun 1992; Darendeli 2001; Boore 2004; Rahman 2019) as shown in Seismic Hazard Assessment and Microzonation the Fig. 8. The seismic source, path and local site influence the seismic ground motions need to be characterized to per- Methods of Seismic Hazard Analysis and Microzonation form seismic hazard analysis (Rahman 2019). Seismic Seismic hazard analysis methods at different grade levels hazard assessment and microzonation consists of (1) are used to assess the effects of earthquake ground mo- Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) or Deter- tion due to the combined effect of source, distance ministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) followed by (path) and local site conditions (Kramer 1996; TC4- Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE); (2) PSHA ISSMGE 1999). The review of the seismic hazard assess- or/and DSHA followed by dynamic site response ana- ment methods includes deterministic seismic hazard lysis; and (3) dynamic site response analysis only (BSSC analysis, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), 2015a). Both deterministic and probabilistic methods and site response analysis and liquefaction potential performed to complement each other for providing add- evaluation (Reiter 1990; Kramer 1996; Midzi et al. 1999; itional insights to seismic hazard and risk problems of Abrahamson and Silva 2008; Boore and Atkinson 2008; decision making purposes (McGuire 2001). Rahman Anbazhagan et al. 2013; Rahman 2019). (2019) reported that deterministic and probabilistic ground motion distributions are commonly estimated as Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) The seismic ground motion is measured as a function of magnitude and distance from the source using ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The GMPEs are empirically derived from a large number of corrected earthquake ground motion data by statistical regression analysis (Abrahamson and Silva 2008; Boore and Atkin- son 2008; Campbell and Bozorgnia 2008; Chiou and Youngs 2008; Idriss and Boulanger 2008). Kramer (1996) and Bommer et al. (2012) stated that ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) describe the scaling of ground motion amplitudes with magni- tude, style-of-faulting and site class, and decay (attenu- Fig. 7 Effect of slope on ground motion (Vittoz et al. 2001) ation) of the amplitudes at any distances from source. Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 9 of 22 Fig. 8 Conceptual Components of seismic hazard analysis (Rahman 2019) To develop the GMPE for any region, it needs instru- earthquake (MCE) that occur earthquake of a specific mented ground motion data base, but unfortunately size (magnitude) at specific location (Kramer 1996). It is available recorded earthquakes are very limited for such strongly recommended that the deterministic method studies (Kramer 1996). However, statistical models of used for critical engineering projects where conse- ground motion prediction equation have been used for quences of failure are intolerable (Krinitzsky 1995). limited instrumentally recorded earthquake data base re- The four steps to be followed in deterministic seismic gion. As a result, due to unavailability of strong ground hazard method are (Reiter 1990; Kramer 1996; Kri- motion data, there is no developed ground motion pre- nitzsky 2003 Baker 2008): diction equation in Ethiopia. So, many authors (e.g Kebede and Asfaw 1996; Asfaw 2003; Wilks et al. 2017; i. All earthquake sources producing significant Ayele 2017; Gashaye 2018) adopted ground motion pre- ground motion are identified and characterized, diction equations from the Next Generation Attenuation then the geometry and earthquake potential of each (NGA) and PEER data base for seismic hazard assess- source are defined. ment study in Ethiopia. The reason why they were ii. The source-to-site distance is measured for each adopting the ground motion prediction or attenuation source. In most DSHA, the shortest distance be- equation to Ethiopia from the Western USA are (i) both tween the source zone and a site of interest is deter- California and Ethiopia has shallow depth of earthquake mined. The epicentral or hypocentral distance is (ii) the plate boundary in both regions are divergent used depending on measuring distance of the (Kebede and Asfaw 1996; Asfaw 2003; Haile 2004; Wilks ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). et al. 2017; Ayele 2017; Gashaye 2018). iii. The controlling earthquake expected to generate the strongest shaking at a site is determined. The Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (DSHA) shaking is generally expressed at the site in terms of Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) is the some ground motion parameters. The controlling dominant method in earthquake engineering and con- earthquake is defined in terms of its size siders worst scenario earthquake magnitude for engin- (magnitude) and distance from a site. eering design (Reiter 1990; Kramer 1996). Furthermore, iv. The seismic hazard is expressed in terms of ground the scenario is based on the maximum credible motions generated at a site by controlling Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 10 of 22 earthquake. The characteristics of the controlling iii. The distribution of the source-to-site distances of earthquake are generally defined by one or more potential earthquakes is estimated. ground motion parameters that are estimated using iv. The distribution of ground motion as a function of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Peak earthquake magnitude and distance using ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and appropriate ground motion prediction equations spectral response spectrum are frequently used to (GMPEs) is predicted. estimate seismic hazard at a site. v. The uncertainties in earthquake size, location and ground motion parameters are combined to predict In this regard, many researchers in our country (e.g ground motion that will be exceeded during a Gouin 1979; Kebede and Van Eck 1997; Asfaw 1998; specific time period using a calculation known as Hofstetter and Beyth 2003; Fantahun 2016; Wilks et al. total probability theorem. 2017; Ayele 2017) with earthquake magnitude < 6 re- ported and causes a rock slide, building collapse and loss As reviewed of seismic hazard assessment and micro- of life; however, these all researchers used probabilistic zonation in Ethiopia, Gouin (1976) produced first seis- approach to map seismic hazard. On contrary, some re- mic hazard map based on the probabilistic method searchers (e.g Haile 2004; Mengistu 2003; Mammo 2005; which helped as the basis for developing first Ethiopia Gashaye 2018) tried to determine the local site effect building code, ESCP-1:1983, however, his seismic hazard using deterministic approach; however, they did at se- map was developed by considering a large number of de- lected site by neglecting the effect of topography and structive earthquakes occurred in the country causing slope. The probabilistic approach is not good to map damage to social, economic and human life. Further- seismic hazard at local scale (Rahman 2019). As a result, more, Kebede and Asfaw (1996) revised the map and re- many critical infrastructures like dams, high ways, roads, sults were used as an input to the second building code railway, power plant, industrial park, electric transmis- of the country (EBCS-8:199). Kebede and Van Eck sion lines and agricultural activity, building structures (1997) revisited the seismic hazard analysis for Ethiopia need to be addressed by site-specific seismic code before and neighboring countries with no much difference from starting any type of construction. Finally, the current Kebede (1996) in approach and results, nonetheless con- seismic hazard zonation is developed in Ethiopia using sidered spectral response analysis for some economic probabilistic approach and a regional at scale so that it cities and towns. In addition to that, Midzi et al. (1999) can’t represent local soil conditions. To include the re- studied the seismic hazard map of Ethiopia and neigh- sponse of local site condition, it is recommended that boring countries by considering site effect of rock at re- deterministic approach is a good way to analyze local gional scale of 10% exceedance for 50 years. Finally, the site effects. probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Ethiopia and neighboring countries that included Poisson earthquake Probabilistic seismic Hazard assessment (PSHA) source model and proper catalogue declustering re- In the PSHA method, all possible earthquake sources, ported by Ayele (2017) for 475 return periods used to average activity rates, magnitudes and distances are con- produce the 3rd generation building code of the sidered to estimate intensity of ground motion (Cornell Ethiopia. All the conducted studies in Ethiopia so far are 1968; Kramer 1996; Esteva 1969). The annual rate of ex- lack of local site effect or ground response analysis, ceedance of ground motion is expressed in terms of peak topographic effect, groundwater response and slope. As ground acceleration, peak ground velocity or spectral ac- a result, the seismic hazard map of Ethiopia to be accur- celeration at a site and its output is seismic hazard curve ate for seismic design of any engineering structures of (McGuire 2008). The probabilistic seismic hazard assess- economical cities need the detail analysis on dynamic ment (PSHA) take in to account the uncertainties associ- properties of soil or local soil conditions, topographic ated with size, location, rate of occurrence of and slope effects, groundwater hydrology, active faults, earthquakes, and the variations of ground motion char- slip rate and fault length. Finally, further multidisciplin- acteristics (Kramer 1996). ary investigations (e.g., logic tree considerations) are re- The PSHA can be described based on the five steps quired to improve the map of Ethiopia. (Cornell 1968; Kramer 1996; Baker 2008, 2013). Seismic site response analysis i. All sources capable of producing damaging The seismic wave alters as it propagates from rock to earthquakes are identified. soil stratum (Akhila et al. 2012). As reported by various ii. The distribution of earthquake magnitudes (the authors (Kramer 1996; Hashash et al. 2010; Kaklamanos expected rate of occurrence of various magnitudes) et al. 2013) the parameters need to be determined in is predicted. ground site response analysis of ground motion are Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 11 of 22 earthquake magnitude, local geology, surface topog- engineering design. In addition, Mekonen and Kebede raphy, fault mechanism, path between source and site, (2011)demonstratedthat soil amplification studies on seis- and dynamic properties of the soil. Evidence from past mic hazard assessment of some selected parts of Adama global earthquake events (e.g Phillips and Aki 1986; town. Finally, Alemu et al. (2018) ground response analysis Wills and Clahan 2006; Semblat et al. 2000; Slob et al. of representative sites of Hawassa City was reported using 2002; Stewart et al. 2003; Topal et al. 2003; Pitilakis et empirical method. According to this authors, nothing con- al. 2004) shown that amplification of ground motion is sidered on the detail site response analysis, liquefaction ef- extremely dependent on local geology, topography and fect, shear modulus, average shear wave velocity (Vs ) geotechnical conditions. Various numerical methods for map, natural frequency, and topographic and slope effect 1D site response analysis including time-domain nonlin- since as it coincide epicenter of destructive earthquake ear (NL) method (e.g., Kramer 1996; Kramer and Paul- magnitude on thick soil stratum of Main Ethiopian Rift sen 2004; Adel and Cortez-Flores 2004), cyclic wise System. equivalent linear method (Kramer 1996) and frequency- domain equivalent-linear (EQL) method (Schnabel et al. Methods to estimate site response analysis 1972a, 1972b, 1972c; Kramer 1996) have been compared The relationship between stress-strain and shear based on the merits and demerits of analysis. The flow strength (Kramer 1996; Papathanassiou et al. 2005; Mat- chart for ground response analysis (Anbazhagan 2013; thew et al. 2017; Ishihara 2003) is used to evaluate be- Soebowo 2016) is shown in Fig. 9. havior of soils under cyclic loads. Dynamic shear In this regard, some efforts in Ethiopia tried to address modulus (G/Gmax), damping ratio and their variation ground response analysis on certain economic cities and with shear strain is regarded as the dynamic stress-strain towns. For instance, Haile (2004) determined period and properties of soils and used for site response analyses Fourier amplitude for the city of Addis Ababa using (Ishihara 1982; Seed et al. 1986a; Dobry and Vucetic microtremors. Mammo (2005) site-specific ground mo- 1987b; Sun et al. 1988; Bolt, 1999). During earthquakes, tion simulation and seismic response analysis using sto- soils are subjected to irregular dynamic loads that cause chastic modeling and some master students of AAU stiffness degradation and shear strength with respect to (Mengistu 2003; Gashaye 2018) on seismic response ana- number of cycles. As a result, the behavior of soils sub- lysis and micozonation at selected site of Addis Ababa jected to cyclic loading has been studied by various re- were done. All researches worked site response analysis searchers (Seed and Idriss 1970; Castro and Christian in Addis Ababa city is not include average shear wave 1976). velocity (Vs ) map, natural frequency, shear modulus Shear modulus and shear wave velocity are primarily map, groundwater effect, topographic and slope on ground functions of soil density, void ratio, and effective stress, motion and needs to be attention for future work in with secondary influences including soil type, age, Fig. 9 Steps to be followed for the site response analysis (modified after Anbazhagan 2013; Eko and Eric 2016) Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 12 of 22 depositional environment, cementation, and stress his- It is necessary for estimation of surface acceleration to tory (Hardin and Drnevich 1972; Kramer 1996; Chen et consider degradation of material properties and/or lique- al. 2000; Chang and Han 2017). faction of the soil layer. The numerical methods for 1D site response analysis including time domain nonlinear Empirical method (NL) and frequency domain equivalent linear (EQL) have Many researchers have developed empirical relations be- been proposed by (Samuel et al. 2009; Hashash et al. tween surface geology and ground motion parameters. 2010). One-dimensional (1D) analysis (i.e., assuming Based on seismic observations, the relationship between horizontal soil layers, boundaries of infinite lateral exten- surface geology and seismic intensity increments has sion and vertically propagating shear waves) proved ad- been developed by various researchers (e.g. Medvedev equate to model the propagation of the seismic waves and Sinityma 1965; Rodriguez-Marek et al. 2001; Muc- through the soil profile (Kramer 1996). The EQL ciarelli et al. 2004; Paudyal et al. 2012; Paudyal et al. method has been widely used in both research and en- 2013). Various correlations has been used to evaluate ef- gineering practice (Kramer and Paulsen 2004; Kaklama- fect of local soil on earthquake ground motion and the nos et al. 2015). correlation such as: (a) between surface geology and relative amplification, (b) relative amplification based on Linear (frequency and time domain) response geotechnical parameters (SPT-N value), (c) average shear analysis The linear site response analysis is performed wave velocity and relative amplification, and (d) amplifi- in either frequency or time domain (Schnabel et al. cation based on surface topography (TC4- ISSMGE 1972a, 1972b, 1972c; Hashash et al. 2016) using Deepsoil 1999). and Proshake computer programs. Furthermore, linear ground response analysis is applicable to estimate linear- Experimental method ity of soil properties during earthquake ground motion The ground vibrating ether naturally or artificially. from recorded or synthetic data. Themainsourcefor themicrotremor survey aredaily human activities (movements of machinery in factor- Non-linear (time domain) response analysis A nonlin- ies, motor cars and people walking) and natural phe- ear response analysis, which is performed in time do- nomena (flow of water in rivers, rain, wind) main, the dynamic equation of motion is integrated at (Nakamura 1989;Bard 1999; Fritz et al. 2013). Ac- each time step and nonlinear soil behavior accurately cording to various authors (e.g. Kanai and Tanaka modeled (Schnabel et al. 1972a, 1972b, 1972c; Lee et al. 1961; Nakamura 1989;Mengistu 2003;Haile 2004) 2008). However, the non-linear site response analysis is experimental methods generate data based on micro- not widely used due to difficulty in performing the ana- tremor measurements and its results used to deter- lysis and high computational cost. The programs like mine site effects. Nakamura (1989)and Bard (1999) DEEPSOIL 6.4 and Strata used to analyze non-linear site proposed the basis of qualitative arguments about response analysis of soil profile as reported by (Allen et horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) that can al. 2009; Hashash et al. 2016), however, this programs be used to determine site response by providing reli- are not used to determine local site effect when soil pro- able estimates of resonance frequency and amplifica- file is not horizontal. tion. These ratios reach peak at soft soil sites and correlated with fundamental frequency. Kanai and Ta- Equivalent linear (frequency domain) response naka (1961) have explained a theoretical interpret- analysis Equivalent-linear ground response modeling is ation and practical engineering application of by far the most commonly utilized procedure in for microtremors as a convenient tool for evaluating fre- earthquake engineering (Kramer and Paulsen 2004; Kak- quency properties on the ground. In the Main lamanos et al. 2015). It combines effect of linear and Ethiopia Rift system, many engineering and agricul- non-linear soil properties (Idriss 1990). In addition to tural activities are practiced on the thick soil which that, frequency-dependent equivalent linear algorithms may amplify earthquake ground motion without creat- proposed to overcome limitation and better simulate ing awareness on seismic hazard and risk reduction. nonlinear hysteretic soil response under seismic loading As a result, it is recommended that decision makers, (Sugito et al. 1994; Stark and Olson 1995; Rovelli 1998; engineers and government give due attention on local Yoshida et al. 2002; Nguyen and Gatmiri 2007; Hashash site effects using microtremor survey. et al. 2010; Naveen James et al. 2014; Kaklamanos et al. 2015). Numerical methods According to Schnabel et al. (Schnabel et al. 1972a, Dynamic response analysis of horizontal soil layers to 1972b, 1972c;Schnabeletal. 1973) 1-D equivalent- earthquake is the most basic part in seismic engineering. linear site response analysis method used to estimate Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 13 of 22 the transformation of earthquake motions as they deposits. In addition to that, uniform grain size due to propagate upward through a soil profile. Finally, the geological process which makes loose, fluvial, colluvial most commonly used equivalent-linear computer code and aeolian deposits when saturated are likely to be is SHAKE (Schnabel et al. 1972a, 1972b, 1972c)and highly susceptible to liquefaction (Kramer 1996). Finally, modified version of SHAKE91 (Idriss and Sun 1992) new soil deposits (Holocene age) are more susceptible to and SHAKE04. liquefaction than old (Pleistocene age) soil deposits and it is observed at shallow groundwater depth (Kramer Two dimensional equivalent linear response analysis 1996). The one dimensional site response analysis is useful for level or gently sloping ground with parallel soil layers. Compositional criteria The two dimensional analysis can be done both on fre- The compositional characteristics of excess pore pres- quency domain or time domain methods and incorpor- sure cause high volume change potential tend to be as- ate the effect of irregular topography that can’tbe sociated with high liquefaction susceptibility. considered in 1D response analysis (Spudich et al, 1996). Compositional characteristics which affect susceptibility Analysis can be done using dynamic finite element to liquefaction include particle size, shape and gradation method by adopting either equivalent linear approach (Ishihara 1984, 1985; Kramer 1996). (in frequency domain) or nonlinear approach (in time domain) using numerical modeling software like State criteria PLAXIS, FLAC, QUAKE/W for modeling two dimen- A soil fulfills all the criteria for liquefaction susceptibil- sional dynamic properties of soil Kramer (1996). ity, yet it may or may not be susceptible to liquefaction. Since liquefaction susceptibility also depends on the ini- Liquefaction and its susceptibility tial state of the soil (i.e., stress and density characteristics Soil liquefaction is the transformation of granular soils at the time of the earthquake). The tendency to generate from solid state to a liquefied state as a consequence of excess pore pressure of a particular soil is strongly influ- increased pore water pressure and reduced effective enced by both density and initial stress condition for li- stress during cyclic loading (Marcuson et al. 1977). Li- quefaction susceptibility (Kramer 1996). In this context, quefaction potential evaluation of soils is an important there is no liquefaction history in Ethiopia, but uniform step in many geotechnical investigations in earthquake- grain size due to geological process makes loose, fluvial, prone regions (Heidari and Andrus 2010; Amoly et al. colluvial and particle size, shape and gradation that oc- 2016). As a result, liquefaction can be a potential seismic curred on the Ethiopian seismic zone prone areas may hazard in the Holocene loose and poorly graded sands probably cause liquefaction. and low plastic silts existed at shallow depth (< 20 m) below the water table (Marcuson et al. 1977). Not all Liquefaction Hazard analysis soils are susceptible to liquefaction so that certain cri- Earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard analysis is an im- teria used to evaluate their susceptibility criteria are his- portant component of geotechnical earthquake engineer- torical, geologic, and compositional and state (Kramer ing site characterization. Globally, different authors have 1996). carried out soil liquefaction potential analysis using several methods (Iwasaki 1982, 1978; Robertson and Campanella Historical criteria 1985; Robertson and Wride 1998; Seed and Idriss 1982; Youd (1984) and Youd (1991) stated that liquefaction Seed and Idriss 1972;Seedet al. 1985; Youd and Idriss occurred in the past may recur in future. Thus, liquefac- 2001;Seed et al. 1984, 2003; Andrus and Stokoe 2000; tion case histories can be used to identify specific sites, Youd et al. 2001). The approaches to be followed for li- or more general site conditions, that may be susceptible quefaction potential evaluation (Anbazhagan 2013)and to liquefaction in future earthquakes (Kramer 1996). seismic hazard assessment are given in Fig. 10. Ambraseys and Barazangi (1989) compiled worldwide As reported by various authors (e.g Hamid et al. 2017; data from shallow earthquakes to estimate a limiting epi- Iwasaki 1982; Seed et al., 1971) the liquefaction hazard, central distance and distance to which liquefaction ex- liquefaction potential and probability of liquefaction data pected with increasing magnitude. for soil profile is produced from geotechnical, hydrogeo- logical and shear wave velocity data. The approaches Geological criteria used for the evaluation of the potential of liquefactions According to Youd and Noble (1997) and Youd (1991) are (Kramer 1996); (i) cyclic stress approach, (ii) cyclic soil deposits susceptible to liquefaction are formed strain approach, (iii) energy dissipation approach, (iv) ef- within a relatively narrow range of geological environ- fective stress-based response analysis approach and (v) ments, hydrological environment and age of a soil probabilistic approach. The cyclic stress approach is Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 14 of 22 Fig. 10 Steps to be involved in the evaluation of factor of safety against liquefaction (modified after Anbazhagan 2013) simple and the earthquake-induced loading expressed on liquefaction potential evaluation (Kramer 1996). As a the basis of cyclic shear stresses compared to the lique- close, cyclic stress approach is simple, robust and reli- faction resistance of soil. able to model earthquake induced stresses within the The cyclic strain approaches need to determine large ground because it can be determined from field and la- number of factors from laboratory test that influence the boratory tests (Kramer 1996). Also, many design charts cyclic stresses required to produce liquefaction (Kramer and correlations were developed based on cyclic stress 1996). The primary advantage of the cyclic strain ap- approach for the estimation of liquefaction resistance of proach derives from strong relationship between pore soils based on laboratory as well as in-situ tests. pressure generation and cyclic strain amplitude; how- ever, the cyclic strain approach is not commonly used as Cyclic stress approach the cyclic stress approach in geotechnical earthquake en- The cyclic stress approach is generally widely used lique- gineering practice (Kramer 1996). This is due to cyclic faction potential evaluation for earthquake engineering. strains are considerably more difficult to predict accur- In the cyclic stress approach, liquefaction potential haz- ately than cyclic stresses. The dissipated energy and ef- ard analysis evaluated on five stages (Kramer 1996; Youd fective stress based response analysis approach is et al. 2001): (i) evaluation of earthquake loading experimental and used to complement with cyclic stress expressed as cyclic stress ratio (CSR), (ii) evaluation of and cyclic strain approach to increase accuracy of the soil strength against earthquake loading expressed as data, but they cannot be used alone in geotechnical cyclic resistance (CRR), (iii) determination of factory of earthquake engineering (Kramer 1996). Finally, probabil- safety (FS), magnitude scaling factor (MSF) and (vi) seis- istic approach used to address potential sources of un- mic factors. The most widely used cyclic tress approach, certainty in both seismic loading and resistance of simplified procedure, originally proposed by for evaluat- liquefaction problems, but it is not commonly used in ing liquefaction resistance of soils. Also, Seed and Idriss Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 15 of 22 (1982) and Seed et al. (1985) modified the simplified with intrinsic difficulties and poor repeatability of the procedure for evaluating liquefaction resistance of soils. SPT results. This procedure later updated by Stark Finally, adjusted, modified and evaluated by Seed et al. (1995). The main advantage of the CPT used to generate (2001), Youd et al. (2001) and Idriss and Boulanger nearly continuous penetration resistance profiles of (2004). strata, more consistence and repeatable than the results of SPT (Youd et al. 2001). The CRR also estimated from Evaluation of cyclic stress ratio (CSR) the field measurement of shear wave velocity as reported The cyclic characteristics of a soil (CSR) is the average by Andrus and Stokoe (1997, 2000). The benefits of cyclic shear stress (τ ) soils due to cyclic or earthquake using shear wave velocity are: i) the measurement are av loading to the initial vertical effective stress (σ ) acting possible in hard soils where SPT and CPT are difficult on the soil layer (Liu et al. 2001; Rahman 2019). It also to penetrate or to collect undisturbed samples such as account depth of the soil layer, depth of groundwater gravelly soils or at the site where SPT and CPT may not level and intensity of earthquake shaking or other cyclic be permitted; ii) shear wave velocity of soil materials are loading phenomena. The simplified procedure that are directly related to the small-strain shear modulus; iii) 3) widely used to estimate CSR developed in the field con- the shear wave velocity used for estimating dynamic soil sidering an earthquake loading and a depth z from the response and soil-structure interaction analyses (Youd et ground surface by Seed and Idriss (1971). al. 2001). The SPT and CPT used to estimate the liquefaction Evaluation of cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) resistance of non-gravelly soils. However, the penetra- The cyclic resistance of a soil represented by cyclic re- tion resistance measurements by SPT and CPT are not sistance ratio (CRR) determined in the laboratory as well generally consistent in gravelly soils because large as in-situ or field test (Kramer 1996; Rahman 2019. gravels may interfere the normal deformation of soils However, in-situ stress state cannot be established ac- around the penetrometer and misleadingly increase the curately in the laboratory because traditional drilling can penetration resistance. Becker penetration test (BPT) disturb soil samples and give meaningful results. In recommended by Youd et al. (2001) used to estimate the addition, the costs of laboratory tests are sometimes be- penetration resistance in gravelly soils. Though, the cri- yond the budget and scope of the most engineering pro- teria for liquefaction resistance (i.e., cyclic resistance ra- jects. As a result, to avoid difficulties associated with tio, CRR) evaluation using standard penetration test sampling and laboratory testing costs, Youd et al. (2001) (SPT) blow counts have been rather robust over the recommended four in situ test methods for liquefaction years (Youd et al. 2001). potential assessment: ii) standard penetration test (SPT); ii) cone penetration test (CPT); iii) in-situ shear wave Magnitude scaling factor (MSF) velocity measurement (Vs); and iv) Becker penetration A magnitude scaling factor (MSF) used to adjust CRR7.5 test (BPT). to determine CRR for other earthquake magnitudes. In The cyclic resistance ratio for Mw = 7.5 earthquake addition to that, the CRR should be adjusted for the (CRR7.5) are determined from overburden stress cor- value of earthquake magnitude smaller or larger than 7.5 rected standard penetration test (SPT) resistance of (Rahman 2019). Several researchers (e.g Seed and Idriss equivalent clean sand, (N1) 60cs (Seed et al. 2001, Youd 1982, Ambraseys 1988, Arango 1996, Andrus and Stokoe et al. 2001, Idriss and Boulanger 2004). Furthermore, 1997, Youd and Noble 1997) has forwarded conservative CRR evaluated from overburden stress corrected cone values when earthquake magnitude is smaller or larger penetration test (CPT) resistance of equivalent clean than 7.5 for the correction of MSF. The NCEER 1998 sand, (qc1N) cs (Robertson and Wride 1998) and over- (Youd et al. 2001) recommended MSF, which was pro- burden stress corrected shear wave velocity of equivalent posed by Boulanger et al. (1995). clean sand, Vs1 (Andrus and Stokoe 1997; Vungania et al. 1999; Andrus and Stokoe 2000). Finally, CRR ana- Determination of factor of safety lyzed overburden stress using corrected Becker penetra- In simplified procedure, the factor of safety (FL) against tion test (BPT) resistance, N (Harder 1997). liquefaction is defined in terms of CRR, CSR and MSF BC The standard penetration resistance is widely used to given by (Seed et al., 1971; Anbazhagan and Premalatha evaluate liquefaction potential (Sonmez, 2003; Seed et al. 2004). 1985, 2001; Bennett et al. 1984; Chen et al. 2000 Youd et al. 2001; Seed et al. 2003 Idriss and Boulanger 2004, Seismic factors Sonmez et al. 2008). The simplified procedure needs earthquake magnitude According to Robertson and Campanella (1985) CRR and peak ground acceleration. as a input for the evalu- can be estimated based on cone penetration test (CPT) ation of liquefaction resistance of soils (Rahman 2019). Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 16 of 22 Liquefaction potential index (LPI) Conclusions The factor of safety (FL) alone is not a sufficient param- In the seismic hazard analysis of Ethiopia, getting strong eter for evaluation of liquefaction and damage potential recorded ground motion data are not possible; however, at any site. However, the thickness, depth of liquefiable with the knowledge of earthquake source and path ef- layer and factor of safety are very important inputs for fects, synthetic ground motion simulations data are used damage potential of liquefaction Iwasaki et al. (1978). for engineering purpose. The individual earthquakes The liquefaction potential index (LPI) is very popular with different magnitude usually affect certain local areas tool to evaluate potential for liquefaction to cause foun- in Ethiopia. So far, no comprehensive analysis of losses dation damage due to inclusion of the thickness, depth due to such hazards has made to justify their economic, of the liquefiable layer and the factor of safety Iwasaki social and environmental significance at local and re- (1978, 1982). gional level. As a result, damage resulting from seismic The general approach used in the seismic hazard ana- hazards has not generally been recognized as a problem lysis, microzonation and liquefaction potential is shown of national importance. This is because governments in the Fig. 11. The probability of liquefaction-induced give full attention on the drought, erosion and famine of ground disruption determined from computed values of the Ethiopia. Hence, the earthquake hazards and risk liquefaction potential index (LPI) at each location of mitigation of the Ethiopia should be concerned by deci- borehole (Papathanassiou 2008). Ethiopia is situated in sion makers and engineers. In order to address earth- seismic prone areas, but many engineering activities are quake related primary and secondary damage effect on practiced on it without prior information about liquefac- the country, they need research activities and develop- tion hazard evaluation. Liquefaction potential assessment ment work in Ethiopia. In this regard, considering the of Tendaho dam based on the grain size analysis re- scale of the earthquake problems and socio-economic vealed that loosely deposited alluvium foundation liquefy development in the country, the on-going research on under earthquake loading and endangering the stability earthquake is very insignificant. There is a robust re- of dam (Seged and Haile 2010). As a result, Ethiopia quirement to initiate research on: (a) earthquake hazard constructing projects like dams, roads, railway, power analysis and loss assessment, (b) ground motion predic- plant, electric transmission cables, bridges, industrial tion and monitoring, (c) cost-effective earthquake miti- part and building structures on the heart of Ethiopian gation (remedial) measure, (d) ground response seismic zone without considering seismic analysis and li- analysis, (e) developing site specific seismic code of quefaction potential evaluation. So, any projects that are Ethiopia at local scale (f) liquefaction potential evalu- built on the seismic active areas of Ethiopia give atten- ation and (h) creating outreach and awareness to the tion to make the environment safe. people. Fig. 11 Steps to be followed for seismic hazard assessment and microzonation studies (Sitharam and Anbazhagan 2008) Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 17 of 22 For better understanding of seismic hazard initiations, strong need to evaluate the earthquake condition and li- improving the quality of seismic hazard mapping, micro- quefaction potential evaluation to make our environ- zonation and predictions, all past and recent earthquakes ment safe. history, which have occurred in a specified period of time and space have to be mapped. This should be Recommendations achieved by careful analyzing of earthquake catalogue, Based on the thorough review of the literature, the fol- identifying active fault source, local conditions and li- lowing recommendation is forwarded for further earth- quefaction potential evaluation. Furthermore, the cause quake research in the Main Ethiopia Rift System, or source of each earthquake should be studied as this escarpment and Afar depression of Ethiopia; will improve our knowledge on the triggering mecha- nisms and controlling parameters of earthquake. Evalu- Characterizing local site effects using shear wave ation of the fault or source, distance and local condition velocity, standard penetration resistance and ground mechanisms so far reported were based on the numer- site response analysis. ical modeling and field observations of features indica- Earthquake related problems such as liquefaction tive of failure mechanisms and monitoring. Earthquakes and slope instability is to be mapped. are geological and needs proper understanding of the Earthquake-groundwater interaction should be geological setting (lithological and structural), topog- analyzed. raphy characteristics, slope analysis, hydrological condi- Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (DSHA) tion (surface and groundwater), geomorphological is to be used for the design of critical infrastructure. processes, geophysical properties and engineering geo- Updating seismic design code of Ethiopia by logical parameter for understanding the occurrence of incorporating slope, topography and soil thickness. earthquake as well as for designing appropriate mitiga- Large infrastructure projects such as dams, bridges, tion measures of earthquake. Generally, earthquake de- power-plants, railway structures need to be governed pends on source, path and site conditions. As a result, by separate seismic code which is more stringent careful analysis should be given before doing any pro- than the building code. jects in seismically prone areas. However, experimental Site-specific zoning including local site effect should studies shown that more than source and path (dis- be developed for metropolitan areas of Ethiopia. tance), geology can change incoming seismic waves and Geophysical survey should be needed to map deep controls ground motion parameters like peak ground ac- seated geological structures to characterize the celeration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and peak source. ground distance (PGD). So, based on this view, more at- Abbreviations tention should be given on local site effects or geology 1D: One Dimensional; ASTER: Advanced Space borne Thermal Emission and like dynamic properties of soil (shear wave velocity, Reflection Radiometer; BF: Border faults; BPT: Becker penetration test; CPT: Cone Penetration Test; CRR: Cyclic Resistance; CSR: Cyclic Stress Ratio; shear modulus and standard penetration resistance) and DEM: Digital Elevation Model; DSHA: Deterministic Hazard Assessment; site response analysis, liquefaction potential to control EQL: Frequency domain equivalent linear; ES EN1998: 2015: Ethiopian Seismic seismic hazard as well as risk mitigation on the Ethiopia. Building Code; FS: Factory of Safety; GIS: Geographic Information System; Gmax: Shear modulus; GMPE: Ground Motion Prediction Equations; Also, based on the report of Ethiopia, earthquake is oc- HVSR: Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio; LPI: Liquefaction Potential Index; curred due to faults, but type of faults, number of active M/S: Meter Per second; MASW: Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves; faults, orientation of the fault, slip rate, fault length and MCE: Maximum credible earthquake; MSF: Magnitude Scaling Factor; Mw: Moment of Magnitude; NEHRP: Natural Earthquake Hazard Reduction directivity pulse are not known and needs further assess- Program; NL: Time domain nonlinear; PGA: Peak ground acceleration; ments using multi-disciplinary approach. In addition, PGD: Peak ground distance; PGV: Peak Ground Velocity; PSHA: Probabilistic path effects are determined by ground motion prediction Seismic Hazard Assessment; SPT: Standard Penetration Test; SRTM: Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission; Vs: Shear Wave Velocity; Vs : Average shear equation (GMPE). However, no work is reported due to wave velocity; WFB: Wonji Fault Belt non-availability of registered earthquake data in the Ethiopia. As a result, this needs to develop ground mo- Acknowledgements The author would like to thank my principal advisor Dr., Kifle Woldearegay, tion prediction equation for assessment of path effects Mekelle University, for his very constructive comments to the draft paper. and mitigate seismic hazard using numerical modelling. Without the encouragement of Dr., Matebie Meten, Department of Geology, Ethiopia is embarking massive construction like dams, Addis Ababa Science and Technology University, this review paper would not have been made and the author would like to acknowledge for the roads, bridges, power plant and electric power lines, rail- support. way and multi-story buildings in the country. Many of these projects pass and constructed on the heart of Main Data source Not applicable. Ethiopia Rift system of potentially unstable areas. Sur- prisingly, this all projects built in the seismically active Authors’ contributions region without earthquake hazard study, therefore, a The author(s) read and approved the final manuscript. Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 18 of 22 Funding Anbazhagan P, Sitharam TG (2008) Site characterization and site response studies Not available. using shear wave velocity. J Seismol Earthquake Eng 10(2):53–67 Anbazhagan P, Sitharam TG, Vipin KS (2009) Site classification and estimation of surface level seismic hazard using geophysical data and probabilistic Competing interests approach. J Appl Geophys 68:219–223 The authors declare that we do not have any financial or non-financial com- Anbazhagan P, Sreenivas M, Ketan B, Moustafa SSR, Al-Arifi NS (2016) Selection of peting interests with any individual or institution. ground motion prediction equations for seismic hazard analysis of peninsular India. J Earthq Eng 20(5):699–737 Author details Anbazhagan P, Thingbaijam KKS, Nath SK, Narendara KJN, Sitharam TG (2010) Department of Geology, College of Applied Science, Addis Ababa Science Multi-criteria seismic hazard evaluation for Bangalore city, India. J Asia Earth and Technology University, P.O.Box. 16417, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. School of Sci 38:186–198 Earth Science, Mekelle University, P.O.Box. 231, Mekelle, Ethiopia. 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Publisher: Springer Journals
Copyright: Copyright © The Author(s) 2021
eISSN: 2197-8670
DOI: 10.1186/s40677-020-00175-7
Publisher site: See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Earthquake is a sudden release of energy due to faults. Natural calamities like earthquakes can neither be predicted nor prevented. However, the severity of the damages can be minimized by development of proper infrastructure which includes microzonation studies, appropriate construction procedures and earthquake resistant designs. The earthquake damaging effect depends on the source, path and site conditions. The earthquake ground motion is affected by topography (slope, hill, valley, canyon, ridge and basin effects), groundwater and surface hydrology. The seismic hazard damages are ground shaking, structural damage, retaining structure failures and lifeline hazards. The medium to large earthquake magnitude (< 6) reported in Ethiopia are controlled by the main Ethiopian rift System. The spatial and temporal variation of earthquake ground motion should be addressed using the following systematic methodology. The general approaches used to analyze damage of earthquake ground motions are probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA) and dynamic site response analysis. PSHA considers all the scenarios of magnitude, distance and site conditions to estimate the intensity of ground motion distribution. Conversely, DSHA taken into account the worst case scenarios or maximum credible earthquake to estimate the intensity of seismic ground motion distribution. Furthermore, to design critical infrastructures, DSHA is more valuable than PSHA. The DSHA and PSHA ground motion distributions are estimated as a function of earthquake magnitude and distance using ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) at top of the bedrock. Site response analysis performed to estimate the ground motion distributions at ground surface using dynamic properties of the soils such as shear wave velocity, density, modulus reduction, and material damping curves. Seismic hazard evaluation of Ethiopia shown that (i) amplification is occurred in the main Ethiopian Rift due to thick soil, (ii) the probability of earthquake recurrence due to active fault sources. The situation of active fault is oriented in the N-S direction. Ethiopia is involved in huge infrastructural development (including roads, industrial parks and railways), increasing population and agricultural activity in the main Ethiopian Rift system. In this activity, socio-economic development, earthquake and earthquake-generated ground failures need to be given attention in order to reduce losses from seismic hazards and create safe geo-environment. Keywords: Earthquake hazard analysis, DSHA, PSHA, Dynamic response analysis, Ethiopia * Correspondence: alex98geo@gmail.com Department of Geology, College of Applied Science, Addis Ababa Science and Technology University, P.O.Box. 16417, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 2 of 22 Background would continue to increase unless appropriate actions The geo-hazard associated with earthquake is seismic are taken in the Ethiopia. In order to bring the issue of hazards. An earthquake is sudden natural calamities that seismic hazard and associated geo-hazards into attention occur all over the world and confined seismically prone the academia, decision makers and concerned organiza- areas (Meissner 2002). tions is used this review paper. Earthquake related geo-hazard is the probability of a potentially damaging phenomenon occurring within a Methods of site Characterization specified period of time and given area (Varnes 1984); Site characterization used as an input data to determine however, the severity of the damages can be minimized seismic hazard assessment and microzonation. This in- by proper infrastructure based on microzonation and volves acquisition, simulation and interpretation of seismic design codes (Sitharam and Anbazhagan 2008; qualitative and quantitative information about the site of Nath and Jakka 2012). interest. Seismic site characterization can be carried The seismic microzonation studies are the most cru- using geological, seismological, geomorphological, cial methods used to mitigate primary and secondary hydrogeological, and standard penetration test and seismic hazard effects such as liquefaction, ground shak- multichannel analysis of surface waves (Prasad and ing, lateral spreading, structural failure, and landslide, Vijayendra 2017; Alemu et al. 2018). The step to be tsunami, flood and fire (Kramer 1996; US Department of followed for site characterization (Anbazhagan 2013)is Transportation 1997; Nath and Jakka 2012). given in Fig. 1. The earthquake ground motion at a site is controlled by source, path and site conditions (Kramer 1996). The Geological and seismological studies earthquake ground motion increases with increasing Earthquake ground motion depends on magnitude, dis- earthquake magnitude and decreasing distance from tance and geology (Kramer 1996). As a result, geological source; however, the site conditions such as geologic set- and seismological studies are very important to determine ting, topography, slope and dynamic soil properties show rock type, active fault activity, fault type, fault rupture strong variations in earthquake ground shaking inten- length, recurrence interval, size of the earthquake, focal sities than source and path effects (Aki 1998; Borcherdt depth, epicentral distance and site effect, source identifica- and Glassmoyer 1970 Boore et al. 1997; Harmsen 1997; tion, rupture area, earthquake catalog and earthquake Ambrasey and Douglas 2003; Adel et al. 2013; Panjamani declustering (e.g. Kramer 1996;Ayele 2000;Boore 2003; et al. 2018). Moreover, to overcome local site amplifica- Jack and Baker 2008;Ayele 2017). In the Ethiopia, some tion effects, seismic microzonation is recommended works were done on the characterization of focal depth using integrated geotechnical and geophysical investiga- mechanism (source parameter) and epicentral distance tion (e.g. Panjamani et al. 2018; Kramer 1996; Panjamani along the seismic prone area of the Main Ethiopian et al. 2018). Rift System (Gouin 1979; Kebede and Van Eck 1996; The methodologies to be used for seismic hazard Midzi et al. 1999; Ayele 2000; Wilks et al. 2017; Ayele microzonations are probabilistic seismic hazard assess- 2017; Muluneh et al. 2018), however, data complete- ment (PSHA) and deterministic hazard assessment ness or earthquake catalogue to determine accurate (DSHA) (Kramer 1996; TC4- ISSMGE 1999; Anbazha- source and path need to be attention on the seismic gan et al. 2016). Ethiopia country started building infra- prone area of Ethiopia. The effect of geology on structure on the active Main Ethiopian rift or earthquake ground motion amplification effect is not continental rift margin due to the suitability of land. In studied in Ethiopia. So, it is recommendable to assess addition to that, villages, modern towns and cities are the damage of infrastructure and loss of property hosting multistory building, industrial park, roads, power using site specific seismic microzonation. plant, recreational site and railway, dams with consider- able population density. Nearly all of the major towns in Remote sensing and GIS- based characterization Ethiopia are located either within the rift floor or near Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System the rift margins where earthquake hazard is relatively (GIS) designed to characterize seismic site effects based resulting in high earthquake risk (Ayele 2000; Ayele on the interpretation of geomorphology and geology 2017). Geotechnical studies as reported by Ayalew et al. (Alan et al. 2008; Ayele 2017). Furthermore, geotechnical (2004) revealed that along Main Ethiopian Rift System information has extracted from surface information like earth fissuring or cracks were occurred during heavy topographic maps, satellite images, surface geologies, rain fall and causes property loss. With the on-going in- and digital elevation model (DEM), Shuttle Radar Topo- frastructural development, urbanization and rural devel- graphic Mission (SRTM) and Advanced Space borne opment, it is foreseeable that the frequency and Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER). magnitude of earthquake and losses due to such hazards Farr and Kobrick (2000) and Wald and Allen (2007) Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 3 of 22 Fig. 1 Steps to be followed for site characterization in seismic assessment and microzonation (Anbazhagan 2013) demonstrated that Shuttle Radar Topography Mission liquefaction not likely. History of liquefaction is not doc- (SRTM) model used for mapping seismic site conditions umented in the past, nevertheless, due to shallow ground using average shear wave velocity to 30 m depth. The water table, marshy environment, occurrence of lakes, steep hill slopes are high shear wave velocity than flat collapsible soil and liquefaction susceptibility soil on the basins. So, average shear wave velocity is applicable in Main Ethiopian Rift System needs to be assessed to re- regions where transition of steep hill slopes and flat ba- duce socio-economic impact. sins (dynamic landscapes). On this regard, mapping of Ethiopia border faults (BF) of the rifts margin, magmatic Geohydrological response analysis segments and internal faults of the Wonji fault belt Earthquakes change a static stress (i.e., the offset of the (WFB) along the main Ethiopian Rift system were re- fault generates a static change in stress of the crust) into ported (Simkin et al. 2003; Agostini et al. 2011; Ayele dynamic stresses (from the seismic waves) (Manga and 2017), but the damaging effect of the active Wonji fault Wang 2015). The static and dynamic stress increase as belt, earth fissuring, spatial variation of shear wave vel- the seismic moment of the earthquake, but they decay ocity from rift margin to rift floor relative to the infra- very differently with distance. Loose soil deposit and structure is poorly constrained. water table at shallow depth may result in an excessive settlement and liquefaction due to dynamic loading. Geomorphologic studies Also, deep sedimentation widely affects the spectral Iwasaki (1982) and Wakamatsu (1992) revealed that the period and surface amplification (Fritz et al. 2013). The susceptibility of different geomorphological units are liquefaction effect due to earthquake ground motion subjected to ground motion: (a) present river bed, old near and far epicentral distance in the Ethiopia are not river bed, swamp, reclaimed land and inter-dune low as studied. Due to poor evaluation of liquefaction effect in liquefaction likely, (b) fan, natural levee, sand dune, the Ethiopia can cause damage to civil engineering struc- flood plain, beach and other plains land as liquefaction tures. As a result, site characterization should possibly, and (c) terrace, hill and mountain as Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 4 of 22 incorporate saturated soil interaction with ground mo- prepared from shear wave velocity profile to determine tion during seismic site microzonation. the site classes according to Eurocode-8 (2003), NEHRP (BSSC 2015b), International Building Code (IBC 2009), Standard penetration test (SPT) Ministry of Construction 2015 and NEHRP (BSSC 2015a, SPT is widely used direct in-situ test within a borehole Dobry et al. 2000; Kanli et al. 2006). Averaged shear-wave to determine dynamic properties of soil (Anbazhagan et velocity up to depth of 30 m is correlated with site amplifi- al. 2019). Furthermore, it generally used to investigate cation (Aki and Richards 1980; Anbazhagan and Sitharam cohesionless soil or relatively stiff soil. The variability of 2008; Anbazhagan et al. 2010). Finally, the average shear the equipment and procedures has significant effects on wave velocity (Vs ) of soil and rock property used to de- obtained blow counts (Seed et al. 1985; Skempton 1986). termine shear modulus (G) of the soil, damping ratio, Geotechnical site characterization requires a full 3D rep- overburden pressure, void ratio, geologic age, cementa- resentation of stratigraphy, estimation of geotechnical tion, overconsolidation ratio and strain rate (Hardin and parameters and hydro-geological conditions (Ishihara Drnevich 1972; Dobry and Vucetic 1987a, 1987b;Casto et 2003). Earthquake ground motion can be changed due al. 2009;Maheshwari et al. 2013; Mekonen and Kebede to stiffness or shear modulus and damping of the soil. 2011;Gashaye 2018). If the average velocity up to 30 m Ground failure, site response and liquefaction are depth is not well known, it could be calculated by extrapo- strongly influenced by dynamic properties of soil (Kra- lation based on constant velocity, power law relation and mer 1996). proposed method (Boore 2004;Avouac et al. 2015;Bajaj Soils are highly nonlinear even at very low strains. The and Anbazhagan 2019a, 2019b). Statistical analysis re- nonlinearity causes soil stiffness to decrease and damping vealed that proposed method is more reliable than con- to increase with increasing strain amplitude. In this re- stant velocity and power law relation (Boore 2004). gard, geotechnical site conditions play an important role Seismic waves cross rock–soil interface, propagate on damage distribution as well as in the recorded strong through the soil column, the ground motion is generally motion (Ishihara 1997;Aki 1998;Tertulliani 2000;Hart- amplified and its magnitude depends on soil type, soil zell et al. 2001;Özelet al. 2002). A set of correlation be- thickness, soil stiffness, and impedance contrast with the tween SPT-N values and Vs has proposed on the soil type, underlying bedrock (Mammo 2005). In this context, the depth and geological age (Dikmen 2009; Kuo et al. 2012). seismic hazard evaluation based on the Vs of Ethiopia The statistical correlations between SPT-N values and Vs (Afar depression, escarpment and Main Ethiopian Rift for all soils (gravel, sand, silt and clay) are obtained by lin- System) is not well done and incorporating as a hazard ear regression (Dikmen 2009). The high correlation coeffi- during geological study. cient between Vs and SPT-N value shown that SPT-N value has a major effect in Vs estimation. Finally, SPT data Standards (adopting codes) used to determine plasticity limit, shear strength, density According to Natural Earthquake Hazard Reduction and cohesion to build engineering structure is applicable Provisions (NEHRP) (BSSC 2015b), International Build- for site specific seismic site characterization (Kokusho ing Code classification (IBC 2009), Dobry et al. 2000; 1980;Kokusho 1987; Atkinson and Sallfors 1991;Pitilakis Kanli et al. 2006, Rodriguez-Marek et al. 2001) seismic et al. 1992;Ishihara 1993; Wazoh and Mallo 2014). site characterization for calculating seismic hazard evalu- Ethiopia, along the Main Ethiopian Rift System, intensive ation is carried out based on the average shear wave vel- urban development and agricultural activity has been tak- ocity (Vs ) and SPT-N values. The current Ethiopian ing place in the past, present and future which is a very building seismic code ES EN 1998: 2015 served as a basis worrying process without considering seismic hazard for the seismic zoning of Ethiopia with a return period evaluation to save our life. of 100 years corresponds to 0.01 annual probability of exceedance (Kebede and Asfaw 1996; Kebede and Van Multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) Eck 1996; Kebede and Van Eck 1997), however, Ethiop- Multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) is an ian building seismic code (Ministry of Construction indirect geophysical method used to determine shear 2015) is inadequate, incomplete and non-cognizant due wave velocity of geomaterials (soil and rock) (Park et al. to; i) neglecting local site effects, local fault lines, topog- 1999; Elin et al. 2017). MASW uses active and passive raphy and soil conditions that could amplify earthquake source to generate seismic wave and map weathered and ground motion (Asfaw 1982), ii) considers a return engineering bed rock (Enke et al. 2008; Anbazhagan and period of 100 years as compared to 475 years return Sitharam 2008). It measures surface (Raleigh waves) to period (10% probability of exceedance in 50 years) and generate shear wave velocity profile of dispersion curve reduces peak ground acceleration by half (Mekonnen by inversion (Park et al. 1999; Elin et al. 2017). In 1995) and iii) the catalogue of earthquakes for the addition to that, average shear wave velocity (Vs )is current seismic zoning extended up to 1990 and recent Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 5 of 22 or new occurred earthquake in the Ethiopia is not in- structures (Douglas 2001;Kassegneetal. 2012; Alemu et al. cluded (Asfaw 2003). On this regard, recent expansion 2018). on the planning and construction of major building structures as well as infrastructures (including railways, Source mass housing, dams, bridges, electric transmission line, Seismic sources are generally characterized on a fault- industrial park) needs to be update of seismic design specific basis by geometry (location, length, dip angle, code in Ethiopia with 475 years return-period. depth and distance to the site), seismic potential (earthquake magnitude, activity, recurrence), and style Site amplification of faulting (strike slip, dip slip, or oblique slip) (Kra- The effects of site amplification were observed at some mer 1996). Source effects are combined effect of locations during the Mexico (1985) and Loma Prieta earthquake magnitude as well as the characteristics of (1989) earthquakes due to overlying thick soft soil (Stone slip distribution within the fault (Mohamed 2003). et al. 1987; Seed and Harder 1990). The same authors The spatial and temporal character of slip fault that reported that site amplification was directly related with rupture due to an earthquake as shown in the Fig. 2 seismic hazard and depends on soil strength, thickness is the central part to predict the ground motion of soil layer and type of soil. The site amplification con- (Brown 2001). Furthermore, the source effect is firmed, by various scholars (e.g. Borcherdt and Glass- dependent on input motion, frequency and wave moyer 1970; Cox et al. 2007; Anbazhagan and Sitharam length. At the present in Ethiopia and its neighboring 2008; Anbazhagan et al. 2009; Mukherjee et al. 2014), countries, detailed Quaternary fault maps or active evaluated empirically using shear wave velocity and faults characteristics like geometry, slip direction and SPT-N values. The site amplification due to local soil segmentation lengths are not available. In addition to conditions (alluvium thick soil cover) and topographic that, accurate hypocentral and epicentral locations effect in the Addis Ababa was highlighted by Asfaw (depth and epicentral distance) determinations are in- (1982), however, he didn’t determine using systematic sufficient to identify individual seismically active faults approach. On this look, Ethiopia metropolitan city which (Kebede and Van Eck 1997). is covered with thick soil and undulating topography need to be studied further for damage reduction of large infrastructures and life. Path Path effects can modify as it propagates through earths’ crust and strongly control ground motion (Kramer Factors affecting site amplification 1996). In addition, the same material during propagation Along the vicinity, it was noted that source, travel path (dis- of seismic waves can amplify and attenuate at the same tance), magnitude of earthquake and geology (soil and time. This is due to damping ratio and is very high at rock), topography, depth to groundwater, basin effect, slope high frequency than at low frequency (Kramer 1996). Fi- and deep soil affect the degree of strong ground motion nally, the attenuation of seismic wave amplitude with (Asfaw 1982; Seed and Schnabel 1972; Seed et al. 1986b; distance as shown in Fig. 2 is caused by material or vis- Schnabel et al. 1991;Kramer 1996;Douglas 2001, 2003; cous damping (absorption) and geometry of wave propa- Mammo 2005; Bommer et al. 2012). Moreover, estimating gation (radiation damping or scattering) (Kramer 1996). their effects can entirely lead to design proper engineering Fig. 2 Ground motion at source, path and Geology (Kramer 1996) Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 6 of 22 Site Conditions has been attributed to topographic amplification of The local geology conditions have profound influence on earthquake motion. In this case, Ethiopia has contains site response of many earthquakes. Local surface geology the Afar Depression, escarpment and Ethiopian Rift Sys- and dwelling characteristics are the most commonly tem (ERS) seismic source zone (Mammo 2005). On claimed factors which influence effects of earthquakes as these three seismic source zones, many earthquake activ- documented in the recent destructive earthquakes of ities (magnitude <7) with associated life lost and damage Michoacan 1985, Loma Prieta, 1989, Kobe 1995 and Izmit, were reported (Gouin 1979; Asfaw 1990; Wilks et al. 1999 1985 Mexico City, 1989 Loma Prieta, 1994 North- 2017; Fardin et al. 2015; Ayele 2017; Midzi et al. 1999), ridge, and 1995 Kobe earthquakes (Seed et al. 1986a; however, they didn’t work on how topographic effect Chang et al. 1996;Chenet al, 2000). Borcherdt (1970)has amplify or deamplify earthquake ground motion and demonstrated that both theoretical and empirical methods damage of infrastructure in Ethiopia. on near surface geology of site amplification. The geomor- phological situations can contribute to the amplification Depth to groundwater of ground motion that exhibited by topography, basin and The presence of water in the subsurface, and changes in edge effects and lithological contacts. Concentration and/ the amount of water on the surface or within the subsur- or sharp variations in the severity of damage are com- face, can influence the occurrence of earthquakes monly attributed to transitions between soft and hard rock (Manga and Wang 2015). More recent research in the lithologies. The numerical models and real case histories United States has attempted to use monitoring of have shown strong correlation between damage and sur- groundwater levels in wells to predict earthquake activity face geology (Midorikawa 1987; Spudich et al. 1997). More (Moyle 1980). specifically, an increase of significant effects has been evi- Research on earthquake mechanisms indicated that denced near the edge of soft basins (Rovelli 1998). Kramer groundwater played a significant and direct role in many (1996) produced a model on ground motion propagation large earthquakes (Manga and Wang 2007). The ground- from source to site (as shown in Fig. 2). In this regards, water can magnify damaging effects of ground surface. some authors in the Ethiopia (e.g Mammo 2005;Worku The effect of earthquake on groundwater can change 2013) tried to consider local site conditions without in- temperature, geochemistry and pressure and it could be corporating topographic effect, but still remain poorly analyzed by monitoring wells before and after earth- considered. Ethiopia is fast growing country and currently quake (Manga and Wang 2007). running many mega and mini-projects without consider- Ayalew et al. (2004) attempted to show the effect of ing local site condition to address seismic hazard. rain fall on earth fissuring or crack’s on the Main rift valley. Ethiopia have many lakes, springs, and rivers, and Topography numerous cities with construction associated with it, but Amplification of seismic waves in the presence of topo- there is no study still on the effect of water to earth- graphic irregularities is advocated as one of the possible quake ground motion (liquefaction) in view of civil en- causes of earthquakes damage as shown in the Fig. 3.As gineering structures. As a result, it is need to be work reported in different earthquake cases like the 1985 using systematic approach to make our environment safe Canal Beagle Chile earthquake (Celebi 1987; Jafarzadeh and sustainable to life. The response of groundwater and et al. 2015), Whittier Narrows 1987 earthquake (Kawase surface water to earthquakes is complex and occurs on 1990), Aegion Greece 1995 earthquake (Bouckovalas et varying timescales through a number of different mecha- al. 1999; Bouckovalas and Papadimitriou 2005) and nisms. The relationship between earth quakes and Athens Greece 1999 earthquake (Gazetas et al. 2002) groundwater processes is presented in Fig. 4. shown that unusually severe earthquake induced damage Fig. 3 Idealized examples of surface irregularities and subsurface irregularities (Naganoh et al. 1993) Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 7 of 22 Fig. 4 Relationships between earthquakes and groundwater processes (adapted from: http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~manga/eps200-2006.html Basin effect Furthermore, Vittoz et al. (2001) concluded that amplifi- The presence of softer alluvial soils and curvature of cation is usually proportional to the ratio of depth (D) basin will amplify ground motion and increase the dur- over width (W). The relationship of slope and ground ation of motion. King and Tucker (1984) found that the motion amplification is shown in the Fig. 7. As Ethiopia, one dimensional ground response analysis can predict no systematic comparison of slope angle on seismic the ground response only at the centre of the basin and wave amplification was made for the entire reported not at the edges. This variation will have significant ef- seismic hazard (Gouin 1979; Asfaw 1990; Wilks et al. fect on the design of long span structures like bridges 2017; Ayele 2017; Midzi et al. 1999). All the authors and pipe lines which are crossing the valley. listed here gave some effort on the determination of Ashford and Sitar (1997) reported that the slope angle source parameter (depth of the focus) and epicentral dis- of 15% - 25% will create the maximum amplification. tance using mathematical models, tectonic and geo- They find ridges at the top of the hills will amplify the logical knowledge. But, Ethiopia has been practiced large seismic waves and valleys will attenuate the seismic population and agricultural activity in the Main Ethiop- waves. Vittoz et al. (2001) and Graves (1996) have devel- ian rift and Escarpments so that the effect of slope on oped a basin effect model in terms of amplification (Fig. the ground motion amplification needs to be assessed 5 and Fig. 6). on the context of economic, social and live aspects. Slope Deep soil Fiore (2010) reported that the amplification is a linear The analyses of strong motion records found that the function of slope. The same author has been evaluated difference of stiffness between the overlying soil and site amplification values for different slope angles and underlying bedrock that affect the amplitude, frequency found that the amplification due to topography will be and duration of seismic waves (Idriss 1990). more at the crest of the slope than bottom of the slope. Fig. 5 Propagation of seismic wave on one layer soil and basin case (Vittoz et al. 2001) Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 8 of 22 Fig. 6 Effect of basin on ground motion as the wave propagates from #1 to #5 (Graves 1996; Vittoz et al. 2001) These effects were observed during the Mexico (1985) function of earthquake magnitude and distance, ground and the Loma Prieta (1989) earthquakes (e.g. Seed et al. motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from the bed rock 1986b, Chang et al. 1996). The spectral acceleration his- where time-averaged shear wave velocity in the top 30 m tory at deep soil clearly illustrates that greater effect on (Vs ) greater or equal to 760 m/s. The site response seismic wave than rock (Chen and Scawthorn 2003). In analysis is determined using geotechnical investigation Ethiopia context, nearly all deep soil effect on earth- like shear wave velocity, density, modulus reduction, and quake ground motion is not done by previous re- material damping curves, cyclic stress ratio and cyclic re- searchers (Gouin 1979; Wilks et al. 2017 Ayele 2017). sistance ratio (Seed et al. 1986a; Idriss and Sun 1992; Darendeli 2001; Boore 2004; Rahman 2019) as shown in Seismic Hazard Assessment and Microzonation the Fig. 8. The seismic source, path and local site influence the seismic ground motions need to be characterized to per- Methods of Seismic Hazard Analysis and Microzonation form seismic hazard analysis (Rahman 2019). Seismic Seismic hazard analysis methods at different grade levels hazard assessment and microzonation consists of (1) are used to assess the effects of earthquake ground mo- Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) or Deter- tion due to the combined effect of source, distance ministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) followed by (path) and local site conditions (Kramer 1996; TC4- Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE); (2) PSHA ISSMGE 1999). The review of the seismic hazard assess- or/and DSHA followed by dynamic site response ana- ment methods includes deterministic seismic hazard lysis; and (3) dynamic site response analysis only (BSSC analysis, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), 2015a). Both deterministic and probabilistic methods and site response analysis and liquefaction potential performed to complement each other for providing add- evaluation (Reiter 1990; Kramer 1996; Midzi et al. 1999; itional insights to seismic hazard and risk problems of Abrahamson and Silva 2008; Boore and Atkinson 2008; decision making purposes (McGuire 2001). Rahman Anbazhagan et al. 2013; Rahman 2019). (2019) reported that deterministic and probabilistic ground motion distributions are commonly estimated as Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) The seismic ground motion is measured as a function of magnitude and distance from the source using ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The GMPEs are empirically derived from a large number of corrected earthquake ground motion data by statistical regression analysis (Abrahamson and Silva 2008; Boore and Atkin- son 2008; Campbell and Bozorgnia 2008; Chiou and Youngs 2008; Idriss and Boulanger 2008). Kramer (1996) and Bommer et al. (2012) stated that ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) describe the scaling of ground motion amplitudes with magni- tude, style-of-faulting and site class, and decay (attenu- Fig. 7 Effect of slope on ground motion (Vittoz et al. 2001) ation) of the amplitudes at any distances from source. Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 9 of 22 Fig. 8 Conceptual Components of seismic hazard analysis (Rahman 2019) To develop the GMPE for any region, it needs instru- earthquake (MCE) that occur earthquake of a specific mented ground motion data base, but unfortunately size (magnitude) at specific location (Kramer 1996). It is available recorded earthquakes are very limited for such strongly recommended that the deterministic method studies (Kramer 1996). However, statistical models of used for critical engineering projects where conse- ground motion prediction equation have been used for quences of failure are intolerable (Krinitzsky 1995). limited instrumentally recorded earthquake data base re- The four steps to be followed in deterministic seismic gion. As a result, due to unavailability of strong ground hazard method are (Reiter 1990; Kramer 1996; Kri- motion data, there is no developed ground motion pre- nitzsky 2003 Baker 2008): diction equation in Ethiopia. So, many authors (e.g Kebede and Asfaw 1996; Asfaw 2003; Wilks et al. 2017; i. All earthquake sources producing significant Ayele 2017; Gashaye 2018) adopted ground motion pre- ground motion are identified and characterized, diction equations from the Next Generation Attenuation then the geometry and earthquake potential of each (NGA) and PEER data base for seismic hazard assess- source are defined. ment study in Ethiopia. The reason why they were ii. The source-to-site distance is measured for each adopting the ground motion prediction or attenuation source. In most DSHA, the shortest distance be- equation to Ethiopia from the Western USA are (i) both tween the source zone and a site of interest is deter- California and Ethiopia has shallow depth of earthquake mined. The epicentral or hypocentral distance is (ii) the plate boundary in both regions are divergent used depending on measuring distance of the (Kebede and Asfaw 1996; Asfaw 2003; Haile 2004; Wilks ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). et al. 2017; Ayele 2017; Gashaye 2018). iii. The controlling earthquake expected to generate the strongest shaking at a site is determined. The Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (DSHA) shaking is generally expressed at the site in terms of Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) is the some ground motion parameters. The controlling dominant method in earthquake engineering and con- earthquake is defined in terms of its size siders worst scenario earthquake magnitude for engin- (magnitude) and distance from a site. eering design (Reiter 1990; Kramer 1996). Furthermore, iv. The seismic hazard is expressed in terms of ground the scenario is based on the maximum credible motions generated at a site by controlling Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 10 of 22 earthquake. The characteristics of the controlling iii. The distribution of the source-to-site distances of earthquake are generally defined by one or more potential earthquakes is estimated. ground motion parameters that are estimated using iv. The distribution of ground motion as a function of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Peak earthquake magnitude and distance using ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and appropriate ground motion prediction equations spectral response spectrum are frequently used to (GMPEs) is predicted. estimate seismic hazard at a site. v. The uncertainties in earthquake size, location and ground motion parameters are combined to predict In this regard, many researchers in our country (e.g ground motion that will be exceeded during a Gouin 1979; Kebede and Van Eck 1997; Asfaw 1998; specific time period using a calculation known as Hofstetter and Beyth 2003; Fantahun 2016; Wilks et al. total probability theorem. 2017; Ayele 2017) with earthquake magnitude < 6 re- ported and causes a rock slide, building collapse and loss As reviewed of seismic hazard assessment and micro- of life; however, these all researchers used probabilistic zonation in Ethiopia, Gouin (1976) produced first seis- approach to map seismic hazard. On contrary, some re- mic hazard map based on the probabilistic method searchers (e.g Haile 2004; Mengistu 2003; Mammo 2005; which helped as the basis for developing first Ethiopia Gashaye 2018) tried to determine the local site effect building code, ESCP-1:1983, however, his seismic hazard using deterministic approach; however, they did at se- map was developed by considering a large number of de- lected site by neglecting the effect of topography and structive earthquakes occurred in the country causing slope. The probabilistic approach is not good to map damage to social, economic and human life. Further- seismic hazard at local scale (Rahman 2019). As a result, more, Kebede and Asfaw (1996) revised the map and re- many critical infrastructures like dams, high ways, roads, sults were used as an input to the second building code railway, power plant, industrial park, electric transmis- of the country (EBCS-8:199). Kebede and Van Eck sion lines and agricultural activity, building structures (1997) revisited the seismic hazard analysis for Ethiopia need to be addressed by site-specific seismic code before and neighboring countries with no much difference from starting any type of construction. Finally, the current Kebede (1996) in approach and results, nonetheless con- seismic hazard zonation is developed in Ethiopia using sidered spectral response analysis for some economic probabilistic approach and a regional at scale so that it cities and towns. In addition to that, Midzi et al. (1999) can’t represent local soil conditions. To include the re- studied the seismic hazard map of Ethiopia and neigh- sponse of local site condition, it is recommended that boring countries by considering site effect of rock at re- deterministic approach is a good way to analyze local gional scale of 10% exceedance for 50 years. Finally, the site effects. probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Ethiopia and neighboring countries that included Poisson earthquake Probabilistic seismic Hazard assessment (PSHA) source model and proper catalogue declustering re- In the PSHA method, all possible earthquake sources, ported by Ayele (2017) for 475 return periods used to average activity rates, magnitudes and distances are con- produce the 3rd generation building code of the sidered to estimate intensity of ground motion (Cornell Ethiopia. All the conducted studies in Ethiopia so far are 1968; Kramer 1996; Esteva 1969). The annual rate of ex- lack of local site effect or ground response analysis, ceedance of ground motion is expressed in terms of peak topographic effect, groundwater response and slope. As ground acceleration, peak ground velocity or spectral ac- a result, the seismic hazard map of Ethiopia to be accur- celeration at a site and its output is seismic hazard curve ate for seismic design of any engineering structures of (McGuire 2008). The probabilistic seismic hazard assess- economical cities need the detail analysis on dynamic ment (PSHA) take in to account the uncertainties associ- properties of soil or local soil conditions, topographic ated with size, location, rate of occurrence of and slope effects, groundwater hydrology, active faults, earthquakes, and the variations of ground motion char- slip rate and fault length. Finally, further multidisciplin- acteristics (Kramer 1996). ary investigations (e.g., logic tree considerations) are re- The PSHA can be described based on the five steps quired to improve the map of Ethiopia. (Cornell 1968; Kramer 1996; Baker 2008, 2013). Seismic site response analysis i. All sources capable of producing damaging The seismic wave alters as it propagates from rock to earthquakes are identified. soil stratum (Akhila et al. 2012). As reported by various ii. The distribution of earthquake magnitudes (the authors (Kramer 1996; Hashash et al. 2010; Kaklamanos expected rate of occurrence of various magnitudes) et al. 2013) the parameters need to be determined in is predicted. ground site response analysis of ground motion are Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 11 of 22 earthquake magnitude, local geology, surface topog- engineering design. In addition, Mekonen and Kebede raphy, fault mechanism, path between source and site, (2011)demonstratedthat soil amplification studies on seis- and dynamic properties of the soil. Evidence from past mic hazard assessment of some selected parts of Adama global earthquake events (e.g Phillips and Aki 1986; town. Finally, Alemu et al. (2018) ground response analysis Wills and Clahan 2006; Semblat et al. 2000; Slob et al. of representative sites of Hawassa City was reported using 2002; Stewart et al. 2003; Topal et al. 2003; Pitilakis et empirical method. According to this authors, nothing con- al. 2004) shown that amplification of ground motion is sidered on the detail site response analysis, liquefaction ef- extremely dependent on local geology, topography and fect, shear modulus, average shear wave velocity (Vs ) geotechnical conditions. Various numerical methods for map, natural frequency, and topographic and slope effect 1D site response analysis including time-domain nonlin- since as it coincide epicenter of destructive earthquake ear (NL) method (e.g., Kramer 1996; Kramer and Paul- magnitude on thick soil stratum of Main Ethiopian Rift sen 2004; Adel and Cortez-Flores 2004), cyclic wise System. equivalent linear method (Kramer 1996) and frequency- domain equivalent-linear (EQL) method (Schnabel et al. Methods to estimate site response analysis 1972a, 1972b, 1972c; Kramer 1996) have been compared The relationship between stress-strain and shear based on the merits and demerits of analysis. The flow strength (Kramer 1996; Papathanassiou et al. 2005; Mat- chart for ground response analysis (Anbazhagan 2013; thew et al. 2017; Ishihara 2003) is used to evaluate be- Soebowo 2016) is shown in Fig. 9. havior of soils under cyclic loads. Dynamic shear In this regard, some efforts in Ethiopia tried to address modulus (G/Gmax), damping ratio and their variation ground response analysis on certain economic cities and with shear strain is regarded as the dynamic stress-strain towns. For instance, Haile (2004) determined period and properties of soils and used for site response analyses Fourier amplitude for the city of Addis Ababa using (Ishihara 1982; Seed et al. 1986a; Dobry and Vucetic microtremors. Mammo (2005) site-specific ground mo- 1987b; Sun et al. 1988; Bolt, 1999). During earthquakes, tion simulation and seismic response analysis using sto- soils are subjected to irregular dynamic loads that cause chastic modeling and some master students of AAU stiffness degradation and shear strength with respect to (Mengistu 2003; Gashaye 2018) on seismic response ana- number of cycles. As a result, the behavior of soils sub- lysis and micozonation at selected site of Addis Ababa jected to cyclic loading has been studied by various re- were done. All researches worked site response analysis searchers (Seed and Idriss 1970; Castro and Christian in Addis Ababa city is not include average shear wave 1976). velocity (Vs ) map, natural frequency, shear modulus Shear modulus and shear wave velocity are primarily map, groundwater effect, topographic and slope on ground functions of soil density, void ratio, and effective stress, motion and needs to be attention for future work in with secondary influences including soil type, age, Fig. 9 Steps to be followed for the site response analysis (modified after Anbazhagan 2013; Eko and Eric 2016) Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 12 of 22 depositional environment, cementation, and stress his- It is necessary for estimation of surface acceleration to tory (Hardin and Drnevich 1972; Kramer 1996; Chen et consider degradation of material properties and/or lique- al. 2000; Chang and Han 2017). faction of the soil layer. The numerical methods for 1D site response analysis including time domain nonlinear Empirical method (NL) and frequency domain equivalent linear (EQL) have Many researchers have developed empirical relations be- been proposed by (Samuel et al. 2009; Hashash et al. tween surface geology and ground motion parameters. 2010). One-dimensional (1D) analysis (i.e., assuming Based on seismic observations, the relationship between horizontal soil layers, boundaries of infinite lateral exten- surface geology and seismic intensity increments has sion and vertically propagating shear waves) proved ad- been developed by various researchers (e.g. Medvedev equate to model the propagation of the seismic waves and Sinityma 1965; Rodriguez-Marek et al. 2001; Muc- through the soil profile (Kramer 1996). The EQL ciarelli et al. 2004; Paudyal et al. 2012; Paudyal et al. method has been widely used in both research and en- 2013). Various correlations has been used to evaluate ef- gineering practice (Kramer and Paulsen 2004; Kaklama- fect of local soil on earthquake ground motion and the nos et al. 2015). correlation such as: (a) between surface geology and relative amplification, (b) relative amplification based on Linear (frequency and time domain) response geotechnical parameters (SPT-N value), (c) average shear analysis The linear site response analysis is performed wave velocity and relative amplification, and (d) amplifi- in either frequency or time domain (Schnabel et al. cation based on surface topography (TC4- ISSMGE 1972a, 1972b, 1972c; Hashash et al. 2016) using Deepsoil 1999). and Proshake computer programs. Furthermore, linear ground response analysis is applicable to estimate linear- Experimental method ity of soil properties during earthquake ground motion The ground vibrating ether naturally or artificially. from recorded or synthetic data. Themainsourcefor themicrotremor survey aredaily human activities (movements of machinery in factor- Non-linear (time domain) response analysis A nonlin- ies, motor cars and people walking) and natural phe- ear response analysis, which is performed in time do- nomena (flow of water in rivers, rain, wind) main, the dynamic equation of motion is integrated at (Nakamura 1989;Bard 1999; Fritz et al. 2013). Ac- each time step and nonlinear soil behavior accurately cording to various authors (e.g. Kanai and Tanaka modeled (Schnabel et al. 1972a, 1972b, 1972c; Lee et al. 1961; Nakamura 1989;Mengistu 2003;Haile 2004) 2008). However, the non-linear site response analysis is experimental methods generate data based on micro- not widely used due to difficulty in performing the ana- tremor measurements and its results used to deter- lysis and high computational cost. The programs like mine site effects. Nakamura (1989)and Bard (1999) DEEPSOIL 6.4 and Strata used to analyze non-linear site proposed the basis of qualitative arguments about response analysis of soil profile as reported by (Allen et horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) that can al. 2009; Hashash et al. 2016), however, this programs be used to determine site response by providing reli- are not used to determine local site effect when soil pro- able estimates of resonance frequency and amplifica- file is not horizontal. tion. These ratios reach peak at soft soil sites and correlated with fundamental frequency. Kanai and Ta- Equivalent linear (frequency domain) response naka (1961) have explained a theoretical interpret- analysis Equivalent-linear ground response modeling is ation and practical engineering application of by far the most commonly utilized procedure in for microtremors as a convenient tool for evaluating fre- earthquake engineering (Kramer and Paulsen 2004; Kak- quency properties on the ground. In the Main lamanos et al. 2015). It combines effect of linear and Ethiopia Rift system, many engineering and agricul- non-linear soil properties (Idriss 1990). In addition to tural activities are practiced on the thick soil which that, frequency-dependent equivalent linear algorithms may amplify earthquake ground motion without creat- proposed to overcome limitation and better simulate ing awareness on seismic hazard and risk reduction. nonlinear hysteretic soil response under seismic loading As a result, it is recommended that decision makers, (Sugito et al. 1994; Stark and Olson 1995; Rovelli 1998; engineers and government give due attention on local Yoshida et al. 2002; Nguyen and Gatmiri 2007; Hashash site effects using microtremor survey. et al. 2010; Naveen James et al. 2014; Kaklamanos et al. 2015). Numerical methods According to Schnabel et al. (Schnabel et al. 1972a, Dynamic response analysis of horizontal soil layers to 1972b, 1972c;Schnabeletal. 1973) 1-D equivalent- earthquake is the most basic part in seismic engineering. linear site response analysis method used to estimate Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 13 of 22 the transformation of earthquake motions as they deposits. In addition to that, uniform grain size due to propagate upward through a soil profile. Finally, the geological process which makes loose, fluvial, colluvial most commonly used equivalent-linear computer code and aeolian deposits when saturated are likely to be is SHAKE (Schnabel et al. 1972a, 1972b, 1972c)and highly susceptible to liquefaction (Kramer 1996). Finally, modified version of SHAKE91 (Idriss and Sun 1992) new soil deposits (Holocene age) are more susceptible to and SHAKE04. liquefaction than old (Pleistocene age) soil deposits and it is observed at shallow groundwater depth (Kramer Two dimensional equivalent linear response analysis 1996). The one dimensional site response analysis is useful for level or gently sloping ground with parallel soil layers. Compositional criteria The two dimensional analysis can be done both on fre- The compositional characteristics of excess pore pres- quency domain or time domain methods and incorpor- sure cause high volume change potential tend to be as- ate the effect of irregular topography that can’tbe sociated with high liquefaction susceptibility. considered in 1D response analysis (Spudich et al, 1996). Compositional characteristics which affect susceptibility Analysis can be done using dynamic finite element to liquefaction include particle size, shape and gradation method by adopting either equivalent linear approach (Ishihara 1984, 1985; Kramer 1996). (in frequency domain) or nonlinear approach (in time domain) using numerical modeling software like State criteria PLAXIS, FLAC, QUAKE/W for modeling two dimen- A soil fulfills all the criteria for liquefaction susceptibil- sional dynamic properties of soil Kramer (1996). ity, yet it may or may not be susceptible to liquefaction. Since liquefaction susceptibility also depends on the ini- Liquefaction and its susceptibility tial state of the soil (i.e., stress and density characteristics Soil liquefaction is the transformation of granular soils at the time of the earthquake). The tendency to generate from solid state to a liquefied state as a consequence of excess pore pressure of a particular soil is strongly influ- increased pore water pressure and reduced effective enced by both density and initial stress condition for li- stress during cyclic loading (Marcuson et al. 1977). Li- quefaction susceptibility (Kramer 1996). In this context, quefaction potential evaluation of soils is an important there is no liquefaction history in Ethiopia, but uniform step in many geotechnical investigations in earthquake- grain size due to geological process makes loose, fluvial, prone regions (Heidari and Andrus 2010; Amoly et al. colluvial and particle size, shape and gradation that oc- 2016). As a result, liquefaction can be a potential seismic curred on the Ethiopian seismic zone prone areas may hazard in the Holocene loose and poorly graded sands probably cause liquefaction. and low plastic silts existed at shallow depth (< 20 m) below the water table (Marcuson et al. 1977). Not all Liquefaction Hazard analysis soils are susceptible to liquefaction so that certain cri- Earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard analysis is an im- teria used to evaluate their susceptibility criteria are his- portant component of geotechnical earthquake engineer- torical, geologic, and compositional and state (Kramer ing site characterization. Globally, different authors have 1996). carried out soil liquefaction potential analysis using several methods (Iwasaki 1982, 1978; Robertson and Campanella Historical criteria 1985; Robertson and Wride 1998; Seed and Idriss 1982; Youd (1984) and Youd (1991) stated that liquefaction Seed and Idriss 1972;Seedet al. 1985; Youd and Idriss occurred in the past may recur in future. Thus, liquefac- 2001;Seed et al. 1984, 2003; Andrus and Stokoe 2000; tion case histories can be used to identify specific sites, Youd et al. 2001). The approaches to be followed for li- or more general site conditions, that may be susceptible quefaction potential evaluation (Anbazhagan 2013)and to liquefaction in future earthquakes (Kramer 1996). seismic hazard assessment are given in Fig. 10. Ambraseys and Barazangi (1989) compiled worldwide As reported by various authors (e.g Hamid et al. 2017; data from shallow earthquakes to estimate a limiting epi- Iwasaki 1982; Seed et al., 1971) the liquefaction hazard, central distance and distance to which liquefaction ex- liquefaction potential and probability of liquefaction data pected with increasing magnitude. for soil profile is produced from geotechnical, hydrogeo- logical and shear wave velocity data. The approaches Geological criteria used for the evaluation of the potential of liquefactions According to Youd and Noble (1997) and Youd (1991) are (Kramer 1996); (i) cyclic stress approach, (ii) cyclic soil deposits susceptible to liquefaction are formed strain approach, (iii) energy dissipation approach, (iv) ef- within a relatively narrow range of geological environ- fective stress-based response analysis approach and (v) ments, hydrological environment and age of a soil probabilistic approach. The cyclic stress approach is Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 14 of 22 Fig. 10 Steps to be involved in the evaluation of factor of safety against liquefaction (modified after Anbazhagan 2013) simple and the earthquake-induced loading expressed on liquefaction potential evaluation (Kramer 1996). As a the basis of cyclic shear stresses compared to the lique- close, cyclic stress approach is simple, robust and reli- faction resistance of soil. able to model earthquake induced stresses within the The cyclic strain approaches need to determine large ground because it can be determined from field and la- number of factors from laboratory test that influence the boratory tests (Kramer 1996). Also, many design charts cyclic stresses required to produce liquefaction (Kramer and correlations were developed based on cyclic stress 1996). The primary advantage of the cyclic strain ap- approach for the estimation of liquefaction resistance of proach derives from strong relationship between pore soils based on laboratory as well as in-situ tests. pressure generation and cyclic strain amplitude; how- ever, the cyclic strain approach is not commonly used as Cyclic stress approach the cyclic stress approach in geotechnical earthquake en- The cyclic stress approach is generally widely used lique- gineering practice (Kramer 1996). This is due to cyclic faction potential evaluation for earthquake engineering. strains are considerably more difficult to predict accur- In the cyclic stress approach, liquefaction potential haz- ately than cyclic stresses. The dissipated energy and ef- ard analysis evaluated on five stages (Kramer 1996; Youd fective stress based response analysis approach is et al. 2001): (i) evaluation of earthquake loading experimental and used to complement with cyclic stress expressed as cyclic stress ratio (CSR), (ii) evaluation of and cyclic strain approach to increase accuracy of the soil strength against earthquake loading expressed as data, but they cannot be used alone in geotechnical cyclic resistance (CRR), (iii) determination of factory of earthquake engineering (Kramer 1996). Finally, probabil- safety (FS), magnitude scaling factor (MSF) and (vi) seis- istic approach used to address potential sources of un- mic factors. The most widely used cyclic tress approach, certainty in both seismic loading and resistance of simplified procedure, originally proposed by for evaluat- liquefaction problems, but it is not commonly used in ing liquefaction resistance of soils. Also, Seed and Idriss Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 15 of 22 (1982) and Seed et al. (1985) modified the simplified with intrinsic difficulties and poor repeatability of the procedure for evaluating liquefaction resistance of soils. SPT results. This procedure later updated by Stark Finally, adjusted, modified and evaluated by Seed et al. (1995). The main advantage of the CPT used to generate (2001), Youd et al. (2001) and Idriss and Boulanger nearly continuous penetration resistance profiles of (2004). strata, more consistence and repeatable than the results of SPT (Youd et al. 2001). The CRR also estimated from Evaluation of cyclic stress ratio (CSR) the field measurement of shear wave velocity as reported The cyclic characteristics of a soil (CSR) is the average by Andrus and Stokoe (1997, 2000). The benefits of cyclic shear stress (τ ) soils due to cyclic or earthquake using shear wave velocity are: i) the measurement are av loading to the initial vertical effective stress (σ ) acting possible in hard soils where SPT and CPT are difficult on the soil layer (Liu et al. 2001; Rahman 2019). It also to penetrate or to collect undisturbed samples such as account depth of the soil layer, depth of groundwater gravelly soils or at the site where SPT and CPT may not level and intensity of earthquake shaking or other cyclic be permitted; ii) shear wave velocity of soil materials are loading phenomena. The simplified procedure that are directly related to the small-strain shear modulus; iii) 3) widely used to estimate CSR developed in the field con- the shear wave velocity used for estimating dynamic soil sidering an earthquake loading and a depth z from the response and soil-structure interaction analyses (Youd et ground surface by Seed and Idriss (1971). al. 2001). The SPT and CPT used to estimate the liquefaction Evaluation of cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) resistance of non-gravelly soils. However, the penetra- The cyclic resistance of a soil represented by cyclic re- tion resistance measurements by SPT and CPT are not sistance ratio (CRR) determined in the laboratory as well generally consistent in gravelly soils because large as in-situ or field test (Kramer 1996; Rahman 2019. gravels may interfere the normal deformation of soils However, in-situ stress state cannot be established ac- around the penetrometer and misleadingly increase the curately in the laboratory because traditional drilling can penetration resistance. Becker penetration test (BPT) disturb soil samples and give meaningful results. In recommended by Youd et al. (2001) used to estimate the addition, the costs of laboratory tests are sometimes be- penetration resistance in gravelly soils. Though, the cri- yond the budget and scope of the most engineering pro- teria for liquefaction resistance (i.e., cyclic resistance ra- jects. As a result, to avoid difficulties associated with tio, CRR) evaluation using standard penetration test sampling and laboratory testing costs, Youd et al. (2001) (SPT) blow counts have been rather robust over the recommended four in situ test methods for liquefaction years (Youd et al. 2001). potential assessment: ii) standard penetration test (SPT); ii) cone penetration test (CPT); iii) in-situ shear wave Magnitude scaling factor (MSF) velocity measurement (Vs); and iv) Becker penetration A magnitude scaling factor (MSF) used to adjust CRR7.5 test (BPT). to determine CRR for other earthquake magnitudes. In The cyclic resistance ratio for Mw = 7.5 earthquake addition to that, the CRR should be adjusted for the (CRR7.5) are determined from overburden stress cor- value of earthquake magnitude smaller or larger than 7.5 rected standard penetration test (SPT) resistance of (Rahman 2019). Several researchers (e.g Seed and Idriss equivalent clean sand, (N1) 60cs (Seed et al. 2001, Youd 1982, Ambraseys 1988, Arango 1996, Andrus and Stokoe et al. 2001, Idriss and Boulanger 2004). Furthermore, 1997, Youd and Noble 1997) has forwarded conservative CRR evaluated from overburden stress corrected cone values when earthquake magnitude is smaller or larger penetration test (CPT) resistance of equivalent clean than 7.5 for the correction of MSF. The NCEER 1998 sand, (qc1N) cs (Robertson and Wride 1998) and over- (Youd et al. 2001) recommended MSF, which was pro- burden stress corrected shear wave velocity of equivalent posed by Boulanger et al. (1995). clean sand, Vs1 (Andrus and Stokoe 1997; Vungania et al. 1999; Andrus and Stokoe 2000). Finally, CRR ana- Determination of factor of safety lyzed overburden stress using corrected Becker penetra- In simplified procedure, the factor of safety (FL) against tion test (BPT) resistance, N (Harder 1997). liquefaction is defined in terms of CRR, CSR and MSF BC The standard penetration resistance is widely used to given by (Seed et al., 1971; Anbazhagan and Premalatha evaluate liquefaction potential (Sonmez, 2003; Seed et al. 2004). 1985, 2001; Bennett et al. 1984; Chen et al. 2000 Youd et al. 2001; Seed et al. 2003 Idriss and Boulanger 2004, Seismic factors Sonmez et al. 2008). The simplified procedure needs earthquake magnitude According to Robertson and Campanella (1985) CRR and peak ground acceleration. as a input for the evalu- can be estimated based on cone penetration test (CPT) ation of liquefaction resistance of soils (Rahman 2019). Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 16 of 22 Liquefaction potential index (LPI) Conclusions The factor of safety (FL) alone is not a sufficient param- In the seismic hazard analysis of Ethiopia, getting strong eter for evaluation of liquefaction and damage potential recorded ground motion data are not possible; however, at any site. However, the thickness, depth of liquefiable with the knowledge of earthquake source and path ef- layer and factor of safety are very important inputs for fects, synthetic ground motion simulations data are used damage potential of liquefaction Iwasaki et al. (1978). for engineering purpose. The individual earthquakes The liquefaction potential index (LPI) is very popular with different magnitude usually affect certain local areas tool to evaluate potential for liquefaction to cause foun- in Ethiopia. So far, no comprehensive analysis of losses dation damage due to inclusion of the thickness, depth due to such hazards has made to justify their economic, of the liquefiable layer and the factor of safety Iwasaki social and environmental significance at local and re- (1978, 1982). gional level. As a result, damage resulting from seismic The general approach used in the seismic hazard ana- hazards has not generally been recognized as a problem lysis, microzonation and liquefaction potential is shown of national importance. This is because governments in the Fig. 11. The probability of liquefaction-induced give full attention on the drought, erosion and famine of ground disruption determined from computed values of the Ethiopia. Hence, the earthquake hazards and risk liquefaction potential index (LPI) at each location of mitigation of the Ethiopia should be concerned by deci- borehole (Papathanassiou 2008). Ethiopia is situated in sion makers and engineers. In order to address earth- seismic prone areas, but many engineering activities are quake related primary and secondary damage effect on practiced on it without prior information about liquefac- the country, they need research activities and develop- tion hazard evaluation. Liquefaction potential assessment ment work in Ethiopia. In this regard, considering the of Tendaho dam based on the grain size analysis re- scale of the earthquake problems and socio-economic vealed that loosely deposited alluvium foundation liquefy development in the country, the on-going research on under earthquake loading and endangering the stability earthquake is very insignificant. There is a robust re- of dam (Seged and Haile 2010). As a result, Ethiopia quirement to initiate research on: (a) earthquake hazard constructing projects like dams, roads, railway, power analysis and loss assessment, (b) ground motion predic- plant, electric transmission cables, bridges, industrial tion and monitoring, (c) cost-effective earthquake miti- part and building structures on the heart of Ethiopian gation (remedial) measure, (d) ground response seismic zone without considering seismic analysis and li- analysis, (e) developing site specific seismic code of quefaction potential evaluation. So, any projects that are Ethiopia at local scale (f) liquefaction potential evalu- built on the seismic active areas of Ethiopia give atten- ation and (h) creating outreach and awareness to the tion to make the environment safe. people. Fig. 11 Steps to be followed for seismic hazard assessment and microzonation studies (Sitharam and Anbazhagan 2008) Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 17 of 22 For better understanding of seismic hazard initiations, strong need to evaluate the earthquake condition and li- improving the quality of seismic hazard mapping, micro- quefaction potential evaluation to make our environ- zonation and predictions, all past and recent earthquakes ment safe. history, which have occurred in a specified period of time and space have to be mapped. This should be Recommendations achieved by careful analyzing of earthquake catalogue, Based on the thorough review of the literature, the fol- identifying active fault source, local conditions and li- lowing recommendation is forwarded for further earth- quefaction potential evaluation. Furthermore, the cause quake research in the Main Ethiopia Rift System, or source of each earthquake should be studied as this escarpment and Afar depression of Ethiopia; will improve our knowledge on the triggering mecha- nisms and controlling parameters of earthquake. Evalu- Characterizing local site effects using shear wave ation of the fault or source, distance and local condition velocity, standard penetration resistance and ground mechanisms so far reported were based on the numer- site response analysis. ical modeling and field observations of features indica- Earthquake related problems such as liquefaction tive of failure mechanisms and monitoring. Earthquakes and slope instability is to be mapped. are geological and needs proper understanding of the Earthquake-groundwater interaction should be geological setting (lithological and structural), topog- analyzed. raphy characteristics, slope analysis, hydrological condi- Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (DSHA) tion (surface and groundwater), geomorphological is to be used for the design of critical infrastructure. processes, geophysical properties and engineering geo- Updating seismic design code of Ethiopia by logical parameter for understanding the occurrence of incorporating slope, topography and soil thickness. earthquake as well as for designing appropriate mitiga- Large infrastructure projects such as dams, bridges, tion measures of earthquake. Generally, earthquake de- power-plants, railway structures need to be governed pends on source, path and site conditions. As a result, by separate seismic code which is more stringent careful analysis should be given before doing any pro- than the building code. jects in seismically prone areas. However, experimental Site-specific zoning including local site effect should studies shown that more than source and path (dis- be developed for metropolitan areas of Ethiopia. tance), geology can change incoming seismic waves and Geophysical survey should be needed to map deep controls ground motion parameters like peak ground ac- seated geological structures to characterize the celeration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and peak source. ground distance (PGD). So, based on this view, more at- Abbreviations tention should be given on local site effects or geology 1D: One Dimensional; ASTER: Advanced Space borne Thermal Emission and like dynamic properties of soil (shear wave velocity, Reflection Radiometer; BF: Border faults; BPT: Becker penetration test; CPT: Cone Penetration Test; CRR: Cyclic Resistance; CSR: Cyclic Stress Ratio; shear modulus and standard penetration resistance) and DEM: Digital Elevation Model; DSHA: Deterministic Hazard Assessment; site response analysis, liquefaction potential to control EQL: Frequency domain equivalent linear; ES EN1998: 2015: Ethiopian Seismic seismic hazard as well as risk mitigation on the Ethiopia. Building Code; FS: Factory of Safety; GIS: Geographic Information System; Gmax: Shear modulus; GMPE: Ground Motion Prediction Equations; Also, based on the report of Ethiopia, earthquake is oc- HVSR: Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio; LPI: Liquefaction Potential Index; curred due to faults, but type of faults, number of active M/S: Meter Per second; MASW: Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves; faults, orientation of the fault, slip rate, fault length and MCE: Maximum credible earthquake; MSF: Magnitude Scaling Factor; Mw: Moment of Magnitude; NEHRP: Natural Earthquake Hazard Reduction directivity pulse are not known and needs further assess- Program; NL: Time domain nonlinear; PGA: Peak ground acceleration; ments using multi-disciplinary approach. In addition, PGD: Peak ground distance; PGV: Peak Ground Velocity; PSHA: Probabilistic path effects are determined by ground motion prediction Seismic Hazard Assessment; SPT: Standard Penetration Test; SRTM: Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission; Vs: Shear Wave Velocity; Vs : Average shear equation (GMPE). However, no work is reported due to wave velocity; WFB: Wonji Fault Belt non-availability of registered earthquake data in the Ethiopia. As a result, this needs to develop ground mo- Acknowledgements The author would like to thank my principal advisor Dr., Kifle Woldearegay, tion prediction equation for assessment of path effects Mekelle University, for his very constructive comments to the draft paper. and mitigate seismic hazard using numerical modelling. Without the encouragement of Dr., Matebie Meten, Department of Geology, Ethiopia is embarking massive construction like dams, Addis Ababa Science and Technology University, this review paper would not have been made and the author would like to acknowledge for the roads, bridges, power plant and electric power lines, rail- support. way and multi-story buildings in the country. Many of these projects pass and constructed on the heart of Main Data source Not applicable. Ethiopia Rift system of potentially unstable areas. Sur- prisingly, this all projects built in the seismically active Authors’ contributions region without earthquake hazard study, therefore, a The author(s) read and approved the final manuscript. Ayele et al. Geoenvironmental Disasters (2021) 8:9 Page 18 of 22 Funding Anbazhagan P, Sitharam TG (2008) Site characterization and site response studies Not available. using shear wave velocity. J Seismol Earthquake Eng 10(2):53–67 Anbazhagan P, Sitharam TG, Vipin KS (2009) Site classification and estimation of surface level seismic hazard using geophysical data and probabilistic Competing interests approach. J Appl Geophys 68:219–223 The authors declare that we do not have any financial or non-financial com- Anbazhagan P, Sreenivas M, Ketan B, Moustafa SSR, Al-Arifi NS (2016) Selection of peting interests with any individual or institution. ground motion prediction equations for seismic hazard analysis of peninsular India. J Earthq Eng 20(5):699–737 Author details Anbazhagan P, Thingbaijam KKS, Nath SK, Narendara KJN, Sitharam TG (2010) Department of Geology, College of Applied Science, Addis Ababa Science Multi-criteria seismic hazard evaluation for Bangalore city, India. J Asia Earth and Technology University, P.O.Box. 16417, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. School of Sci 38:186–198 Earth Science, Mekelle University, P.O.Box. 231, Mekelle, Ethiopia. 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A review on the multi-criteria seismic hazard analysis of Ethiopia: with implications of infrastructural development

A review on the multi-criteria seismic hazard analysis of Ethiopia: with implications of infrastructural development

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A review on the multi-criteria seismic hazard analysis of Ethiopia: with implications of infrastructural development

A review on the multi-criteria seismic hazard analysis of Ethiopia: with implications of infrastructural development

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