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- Publisher
- Springer Journals
- Copyright
- Copyright © 2011 by Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
- Subject
- Philosophy; Philosophy of Biology; Evolutionary Biology
- ISSN
- 0001-5342
- eISSN
- 1572-8358
- DOI
- 10.1007/s10441-011-9132-2
- pmid
- 21611886
- Publisher site
- See Article on Publisher Site
Abstract
Rift Valley Fever is a vector-borne disease mainly transmitted by mosquito. To gain some quantitative insights into its dynamics, a deterministic model with mosquito, livestock, and human host is formulated as a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations and analyzed. The disease threshold $$\mathcal{R}_0$$ is computed and used to investigate the local stability of the equilibria. A sensitivity analysis is performed and the most sensitive model parameters to the measure of initial disease transmission $$\mathcal{R}_0$$ and the endemic equilibrium are determined. Both $$\mathcal{R}_0$$ and the disease prevalence in mosquitoes are more sensitive to the natural mosquito death rate, d m . The disease prevalence in livestock and humans are more sensitive to livestock and human recruitment rates, $$\Uppi_l$$ and $$\Uppi_h$$ , respectively, suggesting isolation of livestock from humans is a viable preventive strategy during an outbreak. Numerical simulations support the analytical results in further exploring theoretically the long-term dynamics of the disease at the population level.
Journal
Acta Biotheoretica – Springer Journals
Published: May 26, 2011