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Predictive models of world conflict: accounting for regional and conflict-state differences

Predictive models of world conflict: accounting for regional and conflict-state differences Developing nation-conflict forecasting models is of vital importance to international resource allocation strategies that affect regional and worldwide security and stability. A nation in conflict may evolve very differently to one that is not. Using a unique set of open-source data, a suite of region-specific models are developed that predict nation-state transitions into and out of violent conflict. Conflict transition predictor variables differ not only between the regions, but also within each region dependent on if a nation is identified as in conflict or not. Accurate modeling of complex regional environments is achieved with parsimonious and interpretable models. While we ensure the causal variables of the previous study are considered for inclusion in the models developed, this paper focuses on the ability to accurately predict conflict over individual independent variable analysis. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png JDMS - Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation SAGE

Predictive models of world conflict: accounting for regional and conflict-state differences

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References (19)

Publisher
SAGE
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2019
ISSN
1548-5129
eISSN
1557-380X
DOI
10.1177/1548512919847532
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Developing nation-conflict forecasting models is of vital importance to international resource allocation strategies that affect regional and worldwide security and stability. A nation in conflict may evolve very differently to one that is not. Using a unique set of open-source data, a suite of region-specific models are developed that predict nation-state transitions into and out of violent conflict. Conflict transition predictor variables differ not only between the regions, but also within each region dependent on if a nation is identified as in conflict or not. Accurate modeling of complex regional environments is achieved with parsimonious and interpretable models. While we ensure the causal variables of the previous study are considered for inclusion in the models developed, this paper focuses on the ability to accurately predict conflict over individual independent variable analysis.

Journal

JDMS - Journal of Defense Modeling and SimulationSAGE

Published: Jul 1, 2020

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