Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Hydraulic Hybrid Powertrain of a Construction Vehicle
Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Hydraulic Hybrid Powertrain of a Construction Vehicle
Wang, Zhong;Jiao, Xiaohong
2020-01-21 00:00:00
applied sciences Article Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Hydraulic Hybrid Powertrain of a Construction Vehicle Zhong Wang and Xiaohong Jiao * School of Electrical Engineering, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao 066004, China; wangzhong@stumail.ysu.edu.cn * Correspondence: jiaoxh@ysu.edu.cn Received: 25 November 2019; Accepted: 20 January 2020; Published: 21 January 2020 Abstract: Hybrid hydraulic technology has the advantages of high-power density and low price and shows good adaptability in construction machinery. A complex hybrid powertrain architecture requires optimization and management of power demand distribution and an accurate response to desired power distribution of the power source subsystems in order to achieve target performances in terms of fuel consumption, drivability, component lifetime, and exhaust emissions. For hybrid hydraulic vehicles (HHVs) that are used in construction machinery, the challenge is to design an appropriate control scheme to actually achieve fuel economy improvement taking into consideration the relatively low energy density of the hydraulic accumulator and frequent load changes, the randomness of the driving conditions, and the uncertainty of the engine dynamics. To improve fuel economy and adaptability of various driving conditions to online energy management and to enhance the response performance of an engine to a desired torque, a hierarchical model predictive control (MPC) scheme is presented in this paper using the example of a spray-painting construction vehicle. The upper layer is a stochastic MPC (SMPC) based energy management control strategy (EMS) and the lower layer is an MPC-based tracking controller with disturbance estimator of the diesel engine. In the SMPC-EMS of the upper-layer management, a Markov model is built using driving condition data of the actual construction vehicle to predict future torque demands over a finite receding horizon to deal with the randomness of the driving conditions. A multistage stochastic optimization problem is formulated, and a scenario-based enumeration approach is used to solve the stochastic optimization problem for online implementation. In the lower-layer tracking controller, a disturbance estimator is designed to handle the uncertainty of the engine, and the MPC is introduced to ensure the tracking performance of the output torque of the engine for the distributed torque from the upper-layer SMPC-EMS, and therefore really achieve high eciency of the diesel engine. The proposed strategy is evaluated using both simulation MATLAB/Simulink and the experimental test platform through a comparison with several existing strategies in two real driving conditions. The results demonstrate that the proposed strategy (SMPC+MPC) improves miles per gallon an average by 7.3% and 5.9% as compared with the control strategy (RB+PID) consisting of a rule-based (RB) management strategy and proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller of the engine in simulation and experiment, respectively. Keywords: hybrid hydraulic vehicle (HHV); energy management strategy (EMS); setpoint tracking; model predictive control (MPC); Markov model; stochastic optimization 1. Introduction The development of clear and ecient city transportation is of significant importance to the solutions for energy shortages and environmental issues. A vehicle with a hybrid powertrain is of great interest as a typical representative of environmentally friendly and ecient fuel usage [1]. Usually, Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 745; doi:10.3390/app10030745 www.mdpi.com/journal/applsci Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 745 2 of 21 hybrid electric power is the standard approach to improve powertrains for passenger cars, whereas hybrid hydraulic power is an interesting alternative for heavy vehicles, such as city buses, commercial trucks, and construction vehicles. This is due to the superior ability of the hydraulic accumulator to accept high rates and high frequencies of charging and discharging, and therefore cope with operating conditions that involve frequent load changes [2,3]. Accordingly, hybrid hydraulic vehicles (HHVs) are usually characterized by lower travel speed, more obvious periodicity, higher amplitude and load change rate, as well as frequent start-stop operations [4,5]. For hybrid power systems, the controlling distribution of the power demand between the engine and the electrical or hydraulic motors, namely the energy management control strategy (EMS), is crucial to the reduction of fuel consumption while satisfying performance constraints. Compared to hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), to date, there have been relatively few related researches on HHVs. Although the proven techniques for controlling HEVs are used as reference, there is still a need to develop control strategies tailored specifically to HHVs. In particular, the relatively low energy density of a hydraulic accumulator requires a carefully designed control strategy in order for the fuel economy potential to be fully realized. In practice, the EMS for HHVs is usually designed as a rule-based (RB) control strategy because it is simple and has real-time implementable structure [6–10]. However, since its control performance depends heavily on rule-switching thresholds defined by the engineering experience, it actually cannot always provide good results during various driving conditions. Therefore, in order to achieve the best control performance possible during a driving cycle, an optimization-based control strategy has become a popular research topic for HHVs, as well as for HEVs. If the driving cycle is completely known, dynamic programming (DP) [11–13] should be the most popular optimization-based EMS. However, due to the uncertain real driving cycles, the EMS designed oine based on DP is not feasible in practice, although it is globally optimal in theory. Consequently, stochastic DP (SDP) [14] is a natural alternative to DP, which utilizes the probability distribution extracted from multiple historical driving cycles to deal with the uncertain driving cycles in practice. From the aspect of a real-time implementable EMS, the equivalent consumption minimization strategy (ECMS) [15] is a popular instantaneous optimization-based method. However, to be close to global optimization, it is a challenge to determine an appropriate adaptive equivalent factor for ECMS. Fortunately, EMS that uses a model predictive control (MPC) framework achieves both near-global optimization and real-time implementation provided the prediction model in the MPC is well processed and the real-time performance of the solution algorithm to the optimal control in the finite receding horizon is guaranteed. In this regard, a MPC-based control strategy is highly adoptable in the design of EMS for HHVs, and therefore more eorts have been directed at the model’s prediction accuracy and a real-time optimal solution. More specifically, an MPC-based EMS is designed in [16] for a parallel HHV used in a passenger vehicle, in which the optimization objective is only a convex quadratic function that can be solved quickly to avoid the requirement of intense online computations. To improve the prediction performance, a type of predictive energy management approach with a learning drive cycle based on previous vehicle operations on the same route is presented in [17] for parallel hydraulic hybrid powertrain heavy vehicles used in garbage trucks or city buses. Moreover, in [18], the learned driving profiles for the prediction are associated with a particular vehicle’s location. An MPC energy management method is studied in [19] for a series HHV based on the prediction of engine power by means of decrement of velocity tracking error. Additionally, an MPC-based EMS is presented in [20] for a type of parallel HHV based on the prediction model using the simplified powertrain dynamics to facilitate rapid online solutions to the optimization problem. However, it should be noted that, in practice, the uncertain driving cycles inevitably aect the accuracy of the prediction information and further aect the control performance of the MPC-based EMS. Therefore, stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) is a promising approach in an EMS, such as, in [21], where the velocity demand from the driver is expressed as a random Markov process and a SMPC strategy is developed for power management tailored for the series HHV. Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 745 3 of 21 In a vehicle with a hybrid powertrain that involves an engine, the upper-layer EMS controls the power allocation between the engine and the additional power source which is undoubtedly crucial to reduce fuel consumption and exhaust emission; however, the lower-layer closed-loop control of the driving power source itself, especially the engine, is even more important to realize the eect of the EMS. To this end, several researchers have focused on the lower-layer control design of an engine and pump/motor to achieve the power split for HHVs. For example, in [22], the engine on/o control strategy based on compensation of the used accumulator power is investigated and the eect of control parameters on the performance and eciency of the hybrid power train is analyzed for improvement of fuel economy. The design and evaluation of the linear MPC method is presented in [23] applied to the tracking problem in a hydraulic hybrid powertrain system. A strategy that combined steady-state feedforward control with an MPC-based dynamic control is designed in [24] to calculate the control input sequence of engine torque and hydraulic variable pump displacement for a heavy commercial vehicle. However, it is worth mentioning that the influence of uncertainties of the system structure and parameters, as well as external disturbance, is not ignored on the transient and static performance of the closed-loop control of the subsystems of the HHVs. Motivated by the analysis above, in this study, we focus on a hierarchical control including upper-layer EMS and lower-layer engine closed-loop control to implement optimal engine control with high eciency and low fuel consumption for a hydraulic hybrid powertrain used in an example of a spray-painting construction vehicle. The structural feature of the HHV uses a hydraulic bridge and one accumulator to achieve two-way energy collection, which is dierent from the usual structure of most HHVs that use two accumulators with high and low pressures. Considering the uncertain acceleration and deceleration driving cycles of the construction vehicle studied, the uncertain nonlinear characteristics of engine and external disturbance, as well as the actuator constraints, a hierarchical MPC strategy is designed to achieve reasonable distribution of engine power and obtain better performance of setpoint tracking of engine torque. The main highlights of the proposed control strategy include three aspects. First, the uncertain driving cycle derived from the randomness of drivers’ driving patterns of construction vehicles and considered and a SMPC-EMS is proposed, to predict the acceleration of the vehicle using the Markov chain according to the statistical information of driving condition data for the actual construction vehicle to ensure the prediction accuracy of the load torque demand. Second, considering the real time of the optimization solution, to avoid intense online computations, a scenario-based enumeration approach is used to solve a multistage stochastic optimization problem in the SMPC-EMS of the upper layer. Third, focusing on the nonlinear characteristics and uncertain parameters of the engine and external disturbance, an estimator of the total disturbance is combined with the MPC torque tracking controller of the engine in a closed-loop control of the lower layer to ensure the robustness of the tracking performance for the distributed torque from the upper-layer SMPC-EMS, and therefore the diesel engine operates quickly and stably in a high-eciency fuel zone. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: The description of the studied system and the control problem are introduced in Section 2. Section 3 presents the design of the upper-layer SMPC energy management controller and the lower-layer engine fast speed tracking MPC controller are designed for the torque coupling system. The eectiveness and adaptability of the proposed method are verified using both simulation and the experiment test platform in Sections 4 and 5, respectively. In addition, the comparison results with the existing strategies are also presented. The conclusions of this paper are drawn in Section 6. 2. System Description and Control Problem In a common spray-painting vehicle power system, the diesel engine directly matches the load torque demand of the main pump. The operation points of the engine probably enter the area with low fuel eciency due to the frequent fluctuations of load. For fuel eciency, a torque coupling structure using a secondary element hydraulic pump motor to adjust the engine torque output is a feasible power hybrid mode. For this study, the powertrain structure of a spray-painting vehicle is studied, Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 745 4 of 21 in which a single accumulator and a hydraulic bridge are used to achieve two-way energy collection Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 20 instead of the hybrid structure of most HHVs using high and low pressure with two accumulators, as control commonly used in industrial control is introduced, therefore, the hydraulic pump/motor shown in Figure 1. In addition, for the secondary adjustment, the pressure coupling control commonly (PM) of the secondary adjustment component can respond quickly and achieves the purpose of rapid used in industrial control is introduced, therefore, the hydraulic pump/motor (PM) of the secondary adjustment and energy saving. The diesel engine, hydraulic PM, and hydraulic main pump are adjustment component can respond quickly and achieves the purpose of rapid adjustment and energy connected to the transfer case with the transmission ratio 1:1:1, respectively. In the diesel hydraulic saving. The diesel engine, hydraulic PM, and hydraulic main pump are connected to the transfer case hybrid system, hydraulic energy is converted into mechanical energy through the hydraulic with the transmission ratio 1:1:1, respectively. In the diesel hydraulic hybrid system, hydraulic energy pump/motor and coupled with the energy output from the diesel engine to form a “torque coupling is converted into mechanical energy through the hydraulic pump/motor and coupled with the energy structure”, and therefore it is a parallel HHV. output from the diesel engine to form a “torque coupling structure”, and therefore it is a parallel HHV. (a) (b) Figure Figure 1. 1. Powertrain Powertrainsystem systemof of aaspray-painting spray-painting vehicle: vehicle(:a ()aA ) A spray-painting spray-paintinvehicle g vehicand le an (d b )(b sketch ) sketof ch the of th powertrain e powertrastr in uctur struce tuof re a ohybrid f a hybrhydraulic id hydrauvehicle lic vehic (HHV). le (HHV). The engine dynamic is described as follows: The engine dynamic is described as follows: . T ̇ = − − − (1) J ! = T T ! (1) e e e pm e where is the rotational inertia, is the engine angular velocity, is the efficiency of the main where J is the rotational inertia, ! is the engine angular velocity, is the eciency of the main e e p pump, is the friction coefficient, and , , represent engine torque, PM torque, and load pump, is the friction coecient, and T , T , T represent engine torque, PM torque, and load torque, e pm L torque, respectively, which are described as: respectively, which are described as: = ( , ) > ( ) T = f , n e e e e > ( ) > p Q sgn(Q ) pm pm pm T = (2) pm pm (2) > 2n ⎨ 2 > . C Av > d : T = + f mg cos + mg sin + mv r L r w = + + + ̇ 21.15 21.15 30 ! where n = , is the throttle opening angle of the engine; f ( (,)) is a nonlinear and empirical where = , is the throttle opening angle of the engine; ∙,∙ is a nonlinear and empirical e e e function of and n , which is obtained by the surface fitting in Matlab toolbox; p , Q , are e e pm pm pm function of and , which is obtained by the surface fitting in Matlab toolbox; , , are the pressure, flow, and eciency of PM, respectively; C , f are air and rolling resistance coecients, d r the pressure, flow, and efficiency of PM, respectively; , are air and rolling resistance coefficients, respectively; A, m, v are the frontal area, mass, and speed of vehicle, respectively; is the climbing respectively; , , are the frontal area, mass, and speed of vehicle, respectively; is the climbing angle; is a conversion factor of rotation mass; and r is the tire radius. angle; is a conversion factor of rotation mass; and is the tire radius. The fuel consumption rate of the diesel engine is calculated by the following relationship: The fuel consumption rate of the diesel engine is calculated by the following relationship: ( ) ( , ) . T n b T n e e, e e e (3) ̇ = ⋅ m = (3) 9550 3600 9550 3600 where is the brake-specific fuel consumption, which can be obtained by a steady-state map of the where b is the brake-specific fuel consumption, which can be obtained by a steady-state map of the engine speed and torque, shown in Figure 2 for a certain diesel engine. engine speed and torque, shown in Figure 2 for a certain diesel engine. Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 745 5 of 21 Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 20 Figure 2. Brake-specific fuel consumption, b , map of the diesel engine. Figure 2. Brake-specific fuel consumption, e , map of the diesel engine. When T > 0, the hydraulic unit is in an energy output state, and the traction torque is provided When > 0, the hydraulic unit is in an energy output state, and the traction torque is provided by the main pump. When T < 0, the vehicle is in a braking state, and the hydraulic unit does not by the main pump. When < 0, the vehicle is in a braking state, and the hydraulic unit does not provide energy. The flow of the axial piston pump when braking is: provide energy. The flow of the axial piston pump when braking is: V v = (4) Q = (4) b b 2r where is the transmission ratio and is the displacement of the axial piston pump. where is the transmission ratio and V is the displacement of the axial piston pump. b b According to Boyle’s gas formula, the accumulator is modeled as follows: According to Boyle’s gas formula, the accumulator is modeled as follows: = = = const n n n > p V = p V = p V = const 0 1 acc acc 0 1 (5) R n > p V (5) V [ ( ) ] SOC = − acc = 1 − − ∆ 1 n 1 1 n SOC = p dV = [V (V DV) ] pm 1 − 1 V 1 n 1 where , denote the precharge pressure and volume of the accumulator, respectively; is the where p , V denote the precharge pressure and volume of the accumulator, respectively; p is the 0 0 1 minimum working pressure; is the corresponding volume; and are the pressure and minimum working pressure; V is the corresponding volume; p and V are the pressure and volume acc acc volume of the accumulator at any time; n is polytrophic exponent, here = 1.4 [2 3]; and is of the accumulator at any time; n is polytrophic exponent, here n = 1.4 [23]; and SOC is the energy of the energy of the accumulator. It can be seen from Equation (5) that when is determined, the the accumulator. It can be seen from Equation (5) that when p is determined, the SOC depends on depends on hydraulic oil volume flowing into the accumulator ∆ . hydraulic oil volume flowing into the accumulator DV. Ignoring the loss of gas flow, the volume change in the accumulator is calculated as: Ignoring the loss of gas flow, the volume change in the accumulator is calculated as: (6) −dV = + = Q + Q (6) pm b dt Thus, considering Equations (4) to (6), the accumulator power is characterized as: Thus, considering Equations (4) to (6), the accumulator power is characterized as: ( ) = 2 + (7) p 2V v sgn( T ) pm b pm SOC = 2T n + (7) pm e pm b 2r ∗ It is worth mentioning that for simplifying the computation of the control design, the is normalized as the state of charge (SOC) by defining It is worth mentioning that for simplifying the computation of the control design, the SOC is ∗ ∗, normalized as the state of charge (SOC) by defining (8) ∗, ∗, ,min SOC SOC ∗, ∗, SOC = (8) with = − ∫ , = − ∫ , where and are the ,min ,max SOC SOC minimum and maximum volume of accumulator corresponding to the accumulator being empty and R R V V max ,min min ,max with the aSOC ccumulato =r being p fulldV [2 , 5SOC ], respecti =v ely. Acp corddV in,gwher ly, th eeV SOC and ofV the ar ac ecthe umul minimum ator canand be pm pm min max V V 0 0 regarded as the ratio of the variation of instantaneous fluid volume to the variation of maximum fluid maximum volume of accumulator corresponding to the accumulator being empty and the accumulator capacity in the accumulator under certain pressures, and = 0 and = 1. being full [25], respectively. Accordingly, the SOC of the accumulator can be regarded as the ratio of the In the powertrain structure, as shown in Figure 1, hydraulic energy is converted into mechanical energy through a hydraulic PM coupled with the energy output from the diesel engine to form a torque coupling structure similar to a parallel HEV. Thus, by regulating the transfer of energy to/from Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 745 6 of 21 variation of instantaneous fluid volume to the variation of maximum fluid capacity in the accumulator min max under certain pressures, and SOC = 0 and SOC = 1. In the powertrain structure, as shown in Figure 1, hydraulic energy is converted into mechanical Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 20 energy through a hydraulic PM coupled with the energy output from the diesel engine to form a torque coupling structure similar to a parallel HEV. Thus, by regulating the transfer of energy to/from the the accumulator, the engine operates at its best operating zone to improve its fuel efficiency when it accumulator, the engine operates at its best operating zone to improve its fuel eciency when it works. works. To achieve this, an appropriate EMS is necessary to allocate the demand of the load torque, To achieve this, an appropriate EMS is necessary to allocate the demand of the load torque, and a and a satisfying tracking controller is necessary to ensure the desired output torque of the engine. satisfying tracking controller is necessary to ensure the desired output torque of the engine. However, during the actual driving cycle of the construction vehicle, the driving style of the However, during the actual driving cycle of the construction vehicle, the driving style of the driver driver and the external environment, such as road type, slope, and other information, cause uncertain and the external environment, such as road type, slope, and other information, cause uncertain driving driving conditions with some randomness, which should be considered in the design of the EMS. conditions with some randomness, which should be considered in the design of the EMS. Meanwhile, Meanwhile, the uncertainty and nonlinearity of the engine dynamic and external disturbance should the uncertainty and nonlinearity of the engine dynamic and external disturbance should be taken into be taken into account in the design of the engine tracking controller. Consequently, a hierarchical account in the design of the engine tracking controller. Consequently, a hierarchical control scheme, control scheme, which can effectively deal with the randomness, uncertainty, and nonlinearity, are which can eectively deal with the randomness, uncertainty, and nonlinearity, are presented in this presented in this paper. The upper layer performs energy management to determine the energy paper. The upper layer performs energy management to determine the energy distribution between distribution between the engine and the accumulator. The control objective is to minimize fuel the engine and the accumulator. The control objective is to minimize fuel consumption and ensure the consumption and ensure the control range of the SOC of the accumulator. The lower-layer controller control range of the SOC of the accumulator. The lower-layer controller is to ensure that the engine is to ensure that the engine and the auxiliary power source operate at the desired operating zone and the auxiliary power source operate at the desired operating zone based on the energy distribution based on the energy distribution result of the upper-layer. result of the upper-layer. 3. MPC-Based Hierarchical Control Scheme 3. MPC-Based Hierarchical Control Scheme Considering uncertain driving conditions with some randomness in the energy distribution, and Considering uncertain driving conditions with some randomness in the energy distribution, and uncertainty and nonlinearity of the engine dynamic in the tracking control, an MPC-based uncertainty and nonlinearity of the engine dynamic in the tracking control, an MPC-based hierarchical hierarchical control structure is established for the HHV, as shown in Figure 3. The upper-layer is a control structure is established for the HHV, as shown in Figure 3. The upper-layer is a SMPC-based SMPC-based EMS using the Markov prediction model for the torque demand in the finite horizon EMS using the Markov prediction model for the torque demand in the finite horizon dealing with the dealing with the uncertain driving conditions. The lower layer is a nonlinear MPC-based tracking uncertain driving conditions. The lower layer is a nonlinear MPC-based tracking controller with a controller with a disturbance estimator. disturbance estimator. Figure 3. Sketch of the hierarchical control structure of HHV. Figure 3. Sketch of the hierarchical control structure of HHV. 3.1. SMPC-Based Upper-Layer Energy Management Strategy Design 3.1. SMPC-Based Upper-Layer Energy Management Strategy Design Similar to other normal driving vehicles, the spray-painting vehicle generates a series of acceleration Similar to other normal driving vehicles, the spray-painting vehicle generates a series of and braking actions according to its driving intention and external environment, such as road type, acceleration and braking actions according to its driving intention and external environment, such as slope, and road obstacles. These driving actions are uncertain random variables, which are random road type, slope, and road obstacles. These driving actions are uncertain random variables, which are disturbances to the vehicle from outside. Therefore, the vehicle acceleration is regarded as a random random disturbances to the vehicle from outside. Therefore, the vehicle acceleration is regarded as a variable, and the acceleration at the next moment is independent of the historical acceleration except for random variable, and the acceleration at the next moment is independent of the historical acceleration the current acceleration, and therefore the randomness satisfies the Markov characteristic. Accordingly, except for the current acceleration, and therefore the randomness satisfies the Markov characteristic. Accordingly, the Markov model is built by estimating the transition probabilities that map the current acceleration to the next acceleration using the historical sample cycle data. Then, according to the relationship of the velocity, acceleration of the vehicle, and the torque demand, the prediction model of the torque demand is obtained, which is also a Markov-chain model in different velocities. The detail is stated as follows: Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 745 7 of 21 the Markov model is built by estimating the transition probabilities that map the current acceleration to the next acceleration using the historical sample cycle data. Then, according to the relationship of the velocity, acceleration of the vehicle, and the torque demand, the prediction model of the torque demand is obtained, which is also a Markov-chain model in dierent velocities. The detail is stated Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 20 as follows: (1) Using the collected cycle data and the sampling interval 20 ms, the maximum speed of the (1) Using the collected cycle data and the sampling interval 20 ms, the maximum speed of the working condition 5.5 km/h , the maximum acceleration 0.08 m/s , and the minimum working condition 5.5 km/h, the maximum acceleration 0.08 m/s , and the minimum acceleration acceleration −0.12 m/s , the acceleration is discretized and pretreated to a positive integral 0.12 m/s , the acceleration is discretized and pretreated to a positive integral value: value: 1 2 M ∈ , , ⋯ , ( = 21), = ( + 0.12) × 100 = 0,1, ⋯ 20 (9) a 2 a , a , a , (M = 21), a = (a + 0.12) 100 = 0, 1, 20 (9) inte (2) According to the maximum likelihood estimation method, the transition probability from the (2) According to the maximum likelihood estimation method, the transition probability from the current acceleration to the next moment acceleration is calculated as: , , current acceleration a to the next moment acceleration a is calculated as: inte,i inte,j = ( + 1) = | ( ) = = M , = , , , , , X , i,j (10) P = P a (k + 1) = a a (k) = a = , F = F , i, j = 1, 2, , M (10) i,j inte inte,j inte inte,i i i,j = 1,2, ⋯ , j=1 where is the change number of the acceleration from to and is the total , , , where F is the change number of the acceleration from a to a and F is the total transition i,j inte,i inte,j i transition number of . The estimated transition probabilities are shown in Figure 4. number of a . The , estimated transition probabilities are shown in Figure 4. inte,i Figure 4. Transition probabilities of acceleration. Figure 4. Transition probabilities of acceleration. (3) According to the established acceleration prediction model and the relationship of the velocity, (3) According to the established acceleration prediction model and the relationship of the velocity, acceleration of the vehicle and the torque demand are described as (1) and (2), i.e., acceleration of the vehicle and the torque demand are described as (1) and (2), i.e., > ( + 1) = ( ) + ( ) v(k + 1) = v(k) + T a(k) > s > (11) C Av(k+1) > ( + d 1) (11) : ( ) ( ) T k + 1 = T / = + f mg cos + mg sin + ma k + 1 r / L p r w p dem 21.15 ( + 1) = ⁄ = + + + ( + 1) / 21.15 the prediction model of torque demand is obtained, as shown in Figure 5. It is also a Markov the prediction model of torque demand is obtained, as shown in Figure 5. It is also a Markov chain model in dierent velocities, which is used in the stochastic optimization of the following chain model in different velocities, which is used in the stochastic optimization of the following SMPC with finite receding horizon. SMPC with finite receding horizon. Figure 5. Transition probabilities of torque demand at different velocities. Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 20 (1) Using the collected cycle data and the sampling interval 20 ms, the maximum speed of the working condition 5.5 km/h , the maximum acceleration 0.08 m/s , and the minimum acceleration −0.12 m/s , the acceleration is discretized and pretreated to a positive integral value: (9) ∈ , , ⋯ , ( = 21), = ( + 0.12) × 100 = 0,1, ⋯ 20 (2) According to the maximum likelihood estimation method, the transition probability from the current acceleration to the next moment acceleration is calculated as: , , = ( + 1) = | ( ) = = , = , , , , , , (10) = 1,2, ⋯ , where is the change number of the acceleration from to and is the total , , , transition number of . The estimated transition probabilities are shown in Figure 4. Figure 4. Transition probabilities of acceleration. (3) According to the established acceleration prediction model and the relationship of the velocity, acceleration of the vehicle and the torque demand are described as (1) and (2), i.e., ( + 1) = ( ) + ( ) ( + 1) (11) ( + 1) = ⁄ = + + + ( + 1) / 21.15 the prediction model of torque demand is obtained, as shown in Figure 5. It is also a Markov Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 745 8 of 21 chain model in different velocities, which is used in the stochastic optimization of the following SMPC with finite receding horizon. Figure 5. Transition probabilities of torque demand at dierent velocities. Figure 5. Transition probabilities of torque demand at different velocities. According to the Markov prediction model, the SMPC problem is formulated, i.e., the moving horizontal optimization problem is solved as follows: N 1 minJ = min m (T (k), n (k)) (12) f e e k=1 subject to the dynamic equation with the stochastic disturbance w = [a, T ] : dem sgn( T (k)) p V > pm pm b < SOC (k + 1) = SOC (k) + 2T (T (k) T (k))n + v(k) s dem e e b pm 2r > (13) v(k + 1) = v(k) + T a(k) T T and the physical constrains for the state variable x = [SOC v] and the control input u = [T n ] : e e min max SOC SOC SOC min max n n n (14) e e min max T (n ) T T (n ) e e e e e Recently, SMPC has been proposed and continues to evolve. The method utilizes statistical information of the disturbance to optimize the performance of a system as much as possible. This study used a scenario based on the SMPC method proposed in the literature [18]. The method is derived from the multistage stochastic optimization idea and uses stochastic models (such as Markov models) to describe the external random disturbances, and therefore improves the eect of model predictive control as much as possible. According to this feature, the Markov model proposed above can be conveniently applied to the method, and therefore the scenario based on the SMPC method is built using the updated information on the Markov chain (9) and (10), and system state. For predictive control based on a scenario stochastic model in the application process, it is necessary to predict the system state and disturbance in a future period (predicted time domain) from the current random disturbance and the measured value of the system state at each sampling moment. The predicted transient state of the system state and the disturbance interaction are also the so-called scenario. This scenario is used to predict the probability of reaching a node. Each node of the scenario represents a predicted state which is the weight factor in the optimization problem (14). This scenario is generally described in terms of trees, as shown in Figure 6, and this description method requires the introduction of the following variables and terms: = fT , T , , T g, the set of the tree nodes. Nodes are indexed progressively as they are added 1 2 n to the tree (i.e., T is the root node and T is the last node added); 1 n pre(T) 2 , the predecessor of the node T; succe(T, j) 2 , the successor of node T with value a ; inte,j x , u , w , the state, the output and the disturbance, respectively, associated with node T, where T T T x = x(k) and w = w(k); T T 1 1 Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 745 9 of 21 2 [0, 1], the probability of reaching node T (from T ); T 1 C = fC , C , , C g, the set of candidate nodes, defined as C = T < 9(i, j) : T = succ(T , j) ; 1 2 i S , the set of leaf nodes, S = T 2 succ(T, j) < , 8j 2 1, 2, , M . f g Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 20 FFigure igure 6 6. . Op Optimization timization tr tree ee diagram. diagram. Every route from root node to leaf node presents a disturbance scenario that is considered in the Every route from root node to leaf node presents a disturbance scenario that is considered in the optimization problem, a list of possible candidates is evaluated, and the node with largest realization optimization problem, a list of possible candidates is evaluated, and the node with largest realization probability is added to the tree until a desired number of nodes, n , is reached. The procedure to max probability is added to the tree until a desired number of nodes, , is reached. The procedure to construct scenario tree is listed in the following Algorithm 1: construct scenario tree is listed in the following Algorithm 1: Algorithm 1 SMPC Scenario Tree Generation Procedure Algorithm 1 SMPC Scenario Tree Generation Procedure { } { } At any step : set = , = 1, = 1, = ( , ), = 1,2, ⋯ , . (k = 1, …, N−1) At any step k: set = fT g, = 1, n = 1, c = succ(T , j), j = 1, 2, , M . (k = 1, ::: , N 1) 1 T 1 while whilen < < n do do max For For i == 1 1 To Tco Do Do Calculate according to (10) and (11) Calculate T according to (10) and (11) End for End for Set i = arg max , T = C , T = T[ (T ), C n+1 i n+1 ∗ ( ) Set = arg max , = , = ∪ , i2f1, ,cg ∈{ ,⋯ , } ( ) C = CnT [ succ T , j , j = 1, 2, , M, n = n + 1, c = c + M 1. n+1 n+1 { ( )} = \ ∪ , , = 1, 2, ⋯ , , = + 1, = + − 1. End while End while In In addition, addition, in inor oder rderto to p r p event revenlar t la ge rgchanges e change in s ithe n th SOC e SO of C the of th accumulator e accumulaat tor the at beginn the beg ing inn and ing the andend the of enthe d ofcycle, the cy ener cle, gy ene constraint rgy constrfor aint the foraccumulator the accumulat ato the r at initial the inand itial final and fvalues inal vais lue added s is adinto ded the intocost the function cost funcof tiothe n ofoptimization. the optimization. Accor According ding to to (12) (12) to to (14), (14), the the SMPC SMPC pr problem oblem at at time time k is iformulated s formulated as: as: P 2 P min − + ̇ min Q SOC SOC + Rm u T T re f T f T i i i i { } ∈ \ ∈ \ i2 nfT g i2 nS ( ) > = x = x(k) > T (15) (15) > ⎪ x = = f x , ,u , ,w , ,T 2 ∈