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Studying pension systems and retirement age: a simple system dynamics model for a complex issue

Studying pension systems and retirement age: a simple system dynamics model for a complex issue One of the most challenging issues that policy makers will face in the near future is population ageing and its consequences in pension systems. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the effect of the increase in the retirement age on the pension scheme of Greece, by also taking into account social unrest that can inhibit the policy implementation. A model of Greece's pension scheme was modelled, using the methodology of system dynamics. The results showed that the increase in retirement age is not as effective as regarded in real world and under appropriate conditions, the pension scheme could be sustainable without raising the retirement age. Keywords: system dynamics; pension system; social security; population ageing; policy modelling; retirement age; simulation; scenario modelling. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Tsaples, G. and Armenia, S. (2016) `: a simple system dynamics model for a complex issue', Int. J. Applied Systemic Studies, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp.258­270. Biographical notes: Georgios Tsaples received his MSc in Engineering and Policy Analysis from Delft University of Technology, where he was introduced to simulation and decision analysis. He is working as a research fellow at the Center for Cyber Intelligence and http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png International Journal of Applied Systemic Studies Inderscience Publishers

Studying pension systems and retirement age: a simple system dynamics model for a complex issue

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Publisher
Inderscience Publishers
Copyright
Copyright © 2016 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
ISSN
1751-0589
eISSN
1751-0597
DOI
10.1504/IJASS.2016.079095
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

One of the most challenging issues that policy makers will face in the near future is population ageing and its consequences in pension systems. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the effect of the increase in the retirement age on the pension scheme of Greece, by also taking into account social unrest that can inhibit the policy implementation. A model of Greece's pension scheme was modelled, using the methodology of system dynamics. The results showed that the increase in retirement age is not as effective as regarded in real world and under appropriate conditions, the pension scheme could be sustainable without raising the retirement age. Keywords: system dynamics; pension system; social security; population ageing; policy modelling; retirement age; simulation; scenario modelling. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Tsaples, G. and Armenia, S. (2016) `: a simple system dynamics model for a complex issue', Int. J. Applied Systemic Studies, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp.258­270. Biographical notes: Georgios Tsaples received his MSc in Engineering and Policy Analysis from Delft University of Technology, where he was introduced to simulation and decision analysis. He is working as a research fellow at the Center for Cyber Intelligence and

Journal

International Journal of Applied Systemic Studies – Inderscience Publishers

Published: Jan 1, 2016

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