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Investigating the effects of uncertainties in the upstream gas sector

Investigating the effects of uncertainties in the upstream gas sector Natural gas is expected to become more important in the future to support the energy transition. However, the upstream gas sector faces many uncertainties which complicate the decision making to supply the required amounts of natural gas. This study deals with these uncertainties, by framing the natural gas production in a system of systems perspective, building a system dynamics model, carrying out an exploratory analysis and testing policy options. The results show that the annual production volume, energy consumption, onshore land use and CO 2 emission objectives can be achieved in the Netherlands only in a small portion of the future scenarios. Policies such as production limits and end of field life techniques are beneficial to increase the production, but also increase CO 2 emissions. In future studies, more policy alternatives can be generated and tested, the uncertainty analysis can be extended and the model can be used in broader energy models. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png International Journal of System of Systems Engineering Inderscience Publishers

Investigating the effects of uncertainties in the upstream gas sector

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Publisher
Inderscience Publishers
Copyright
Copyright © Inderscience Enterprises Ltd. All rights reserved
ISSN
1748-0671
eISSN
1748-068X
DOI
10.1504/IJSSE.2013.056290
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Natural gas is expected to become more important in the future to support the energy transition. However, the upstream gas sector faces many uncertainties which complicate the decision making to supply the required amounts of natural gas. This study deals with these uncertainties, by framing the natural gas production in a system of systems perspective, building a system dynamics model, carrying out an exploratory analysis and testing policy options. The results show that the annual production volume, energy consumption, onshore land use and CO 2 emission objectives can be achieved in the Netherlands only in a small portion of the future scenarios. Policies such as production limits and end of field life techniques are beneficial to increase the production, but also increase CO 2 emissions. In future studies, more policy alternatives can be generated and tested, the uncertainty analysis can be extended and the model can be used in broader energy models.

Journal

International Journal of System of Systems EngineeringInderscience Publishers

Published: Jan 1, 2013

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