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Evaluating the effects of cascading failures in a network of critical infrastructures

Evaluating the effects of cascading failures in a network of critical infrastructures Networks of interconnected critical infrastructures are the supporting mechanisms of every industrialised nation. Mutually reliant on each other, their service provisions cross borders. This reliance is also a great weakness. The level of dependence each infrastructure has on another means that a failure has the potential to cascade, resulting in devastating impact on the economy, e-government, defence and society as a whole. Predicting the effects of a cascading failure is a challenge. In this paper, an approach for identifying the effects of a cascading failure is portrayed. A simulation depicting a virtual city is presented, in order to assess the spread of faults originating from a telecommunications infrastructure. Subtle behaviour changes have the potential to spread, with both significant and minor impacts. These variations can be mitigated for using data classification techniques to assess behaviour changes, with an overall accuracy of 85.61% using the TreeC classifier. Keywords: critical infrastructure; cascading failure; simulation; data classification; resilience; behaviour analysis. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Hurst, W. and MacDermott, A. (2015) ` of critical infrastructures', Int. J. System of Systems Engineering, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp.221­236. Biographical notes: William Hurst is a Senior Lecturer at Liverpool John http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png International Journal of System of Systems Engineering Inderscience Publishers

Evaluating the effects of cascading failures in a network of critical infrastructures

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Publisher
Inderscience Publishers
Copyright
Copyright © 2015 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
ISSN
1748-0671
eISSN
1748-068X
DOI
10.1504/IJSSE.2015.071458
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Networks of interconnected critical infrastructures are the supporting mechanisms of every industrialised nation. Mutually reliant on each other, their service provisions cross borders. This reliance is also a great weakness. The level of dependence each infrastructure has on another means that a failure has the potential to cascade, resulting in devastating impact on the economy, e-government, defence and society as a whole. Predicting the effects of a cascading failure is a challenge. In this paper, an approach for identifying the effects of a cascading failure is portrayed. A simulation depicting a virtual city is presented, in order to assess the spread of faults originating from a telecommunications infrastructure. Subtle behaviour changes have the potential to spread, with both significant and minor impacts. These variations can be mitigated for using data classification techniques to assess behaviour changes, with an overall accuracy of 85.61% using the TreeC classifier. Keywords: critical infrastructure; cascading failure; simulation; data classification; resilience; behaviour analysis. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Hurst, W. and MacDermott, A. (2015) ` of critical infrastructures', Int. J. System of Systems Engineering, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp.221­236. Biographical notes: William Hurst is a Senior Lecturer at Liverpool John

Journal

International Journal of System of Systems Engineering – Inderscience Publishers

Published: Jan 1, 2015

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