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UK construction orders and output: A comparison of government and commercially available data 1995‐2001

UK construction orders and output: A comparison of government and commercially available data... Because of the importance and potential usefulness of construction market statistics to firms and government, consistency between different sources of data is examined with a view to building a predictive model of construction output using construction data alone. However, a comparison of Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) series shows that the correlation coefcient (used as a measure of consistency) of the DTI output and DTI orders data and the correlation coefficient of the DTI output and ONS output data are low. It is not possible to derive a predictive model of DTI output based on DTI orders data alone. The question arises whether or not an alternative independent source of data may be used to predict DTI output data. Independent data produced by Emap Glenigan (EG), based on planning applications, potentially offers such a source of information. The EG data records the value of planning applications and their planned start and finish dates. However, as this data is ex ante and is not correlated with DTI output it is not possible to use this data to describe the volume of actual construction output. Nor is it possible to use the EG planning data to predict DTI construc‐tion orders data. Further consideration of the issues raised reveal that it is not practically possible to develop a consistent predictive model of construction output using construction statistics gathered at different stages in the development process. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction Emerald Publishing

UK construction orders and output: A comparison of government and commercially available data 1995‐2001

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References (1)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2005 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
1366-4387
DOI
10.1108/13664380580001066
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Because of the importance and potential usefulness of construction market statistics to firms and government, consistency between different sources of data is examined with a view to building a predictive model of construction output using construction data alone. However, a comparison of Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) series shows that the correlation coefcient (used as a measure of consistency) of the DTI output and DTI orders data and the correlation coefficient of the DTI output and ONS output data are low. It is not possible to derive a predictive model of DTI output based on DTI orders data alone. The question arises whether or not an alternative independent source of data may be used to predict DTI output data. Independent data produced by Emap Glenigan (EG), based on planning applications, potentially offers such a source of information. The EG data records the value of planning applications and their planned start and finish dates. However, as this data is ex ante and is not correlated with DTI output it is not possible to use this data to describe the volume of actual construction output. Nor is it possible to use the EG planning data to predict DTI construc‐tion orders data. Further consideration of the issues raised reveal that it is not practically possible to develop a consistent predictive model of construction output using construction statistics gathered at different stages in the development process.

Journal

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction – Emerald Publishing

Published: Aug 1, 2005

Keywords: Construction industry econometrics; Construction orders; Construction out‐put; Regression analysis

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