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Issues in the development and application of property market forecasting: the investor’s perspective

Issues in the development and application of property market forecasting: the investor’s perspective Forecasts of rental growth are increasingly being required by and provided to property investors by a growing number of suppliers. Reviews the uses to which such forecasts are put by a major Uk institutional investor and, from a relatively unique vantage point, critically reviews the forecasting services available in the marketplace. In doing so, it identifies the main forecasting approaches adopted, highlights some of the clear inconsistencies between forecasters in terms of what they are forecasting, how they are forecasting and the different data sources they are using. Explains some of the causes for substantial variations observed in the forecasts provided and, finally, explores the potential for systematic forecasting errors. Concludes by emphasizing the need to switch attention from technical methods to improved “view formation”. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Property Finance Emerald Publishing

Issues in the development and application of property market forecasting: the investor’s perspective

Paul M. Mitchell; Paul F. McNamara
Journal of Property Finance , Volume 8 (4): 14 – Dec 1, 1997
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14 pages

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 1997 MCB UP Ltd. All rights reserved.
ISSN
0958-868X
DOI
10.1108/09588689710190351
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Forecasts of rental growth are increasingly being required by and provided to property investors by a growing number of suppliers. Reviews the uses to which such forecasts are put by a major Uk institutional investor and, from a relatively unique vantage point, critically reviews the forecasting services available in the marketplace. In doing so, it identifies the main forecasting approaches adopted, highlights some of the clear inconsistencies between forecasters in terms of what they are forecasting, how they are forecasting and the different data sources they are using. Explains some of the causes for substantial variations observed in the forecasts provided and, finally, explores the potential for systematic forecasting errors. Concludes by emphasizing the need to switch attention from technical methods to improved “view formation”.

Journal

Journal of Property Finance – Emerald Publishing

Published: Dec 1, 1997

Keywords: Forecasting; Portfolio management; Property markets

References

  • House prices, arrears and possessions: a three equation model for the UK
    Breedon, F.J.; Joyce, M.A.S.
  • Comparative properties of models of the UK economy
    Church, K.B.; Mitchell, P.R.; Sault, J.E.; Wallis, K.F.