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Higher education in 2030

Higher education in 2030 HEED Commentary 13,1 Having worked extensively with the UK Government’s Foresight function[1], I must stress first that it is impossible to predict the future, because it has not happened yet. It is, however, possible to say something useful about trends and changes that people and organisations need to be aware of in their thinking. It is also true to say that some long-term trends go unnoticed for reasons that later seem hard to explain. In 1896, Svante Arrhenius, who later won the Nobel Prize for chemistry, published what is generally regarded as the first authoritative study of climate change due to the human use of fossil fuels[2]. It remained little more than a curiosity until the issue became live a century later. Likewise in the 1950s to the 1970s, it was generally regarded (not least in science fiction) as obvious that computers would become small, cheap and widely used[3]. It was not well-appreciated that they would all be joined into a planet-sized information machine linked together by the telephone system. At the time of writing, 2030 was 12 years away. One handy technique in futurology is to look back in time to see what has changed over the amount http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Higher Education Evaluation and Development Emerald Publishing

Higher education in 2030

Ince, Martin
Higher Education Evaluation and Development , Volume 13 (1): 5 – Jun 3, 2019
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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISSN
2514-5789
DOI
10.1108/HEED-06-2019-026
Publisher site
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Abstract

HEED Commentary 13,1 Having worked extensively with the UK Government’s Foresight function[1], I must stress first that it is impossible to predict the future, because it has not happened yet. It is, however, possible to say something useful about trends and changes that people and organisations need to be aware of in their thinking. It is also true to say that some long-term trends go unnoticed for reasons that later seem hard to explain. In 1896, Svante Arrhenius, who later won the Nobel Prize for chemistry, published what is generally regarded as the first authoritative study of climate change due to the human use of fossil fuels[2]. It remained little more than a curiosity until the issue became live a century later. Likewise in the 1950s to the 1970s, it was generally regarded (not least in science fiction) as obvious that computers would become small, cheap and widely used[3]. It was not well-appreciated that they would all be joined into a planet-sized information machine linked together by the telephone system. At the time of writing, 2030 was 12 years away. One handy technique in futurology is to look back in time to see what has changed over the amount

Journal

Higher Education Evaluation and Development – Emerald Publishing

Published: Jun 3, 2019

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