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Higher education demand estimation & prediction by 2025 in Iran

Higher education demand estimation & prediction by 2025 in Iran Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to predict the number of undergraduate applicants for the National Entrance Examination in Iran during 2012-2025 periods and to identity the factors affecting the demand for higher education in Iran. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, the method of cohort, participation rate, structural regression and time series econometric models have been used. In the present study, it has been predicted by using four methods mentioned and at the next step, in addition to identifying effective factors, the results given from these four methods have been compared with each other. Furthermore, the most important factors influencing university enrollment decision have been identified by econometric method. Findings – The results of estimating the number of the criteria applicants, show that the tendency to pursue studies is different between males and females. Therefore, their structural models differ from each other. The results of forecast in structural method support the high effectiveness of economic growth index. Most predictions are often confirmed the reduction in the number of applicants during the 2012-2025 period, especially for men. Social implications – This paper can be helpful in opening up a discourse around cross-cultural elements in higher education demands and planning for higher education. Originality/value – It’s important to forecast the demand for higher education using different methods, and to compare the results for specific countries. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Applied Research in Higher Education Emerald Publishing

Higher education demand estimation & prediction by 2025 in Iran

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References (26)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISSN
2050-7003
DOI
10.1108/JARHE-04-2013-0021
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to predict the number of undergraduate applicants for the National Entrance Examination in Iran during 2012-2025 periods and to identity the factors affecting the demand for higher education in Iran. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, the method of cohort, participation rate, structural regression and time series econometric models have been used. In the present study, it has been predicted by using four methods mentioned and at the next step, in addition to identifying effective factors, the results given from these four methods have been compared with each other. Furthermore, the most important factors influencing university enrollment decision have been identified by econometric method. Findings – The results of estimating the number of the criteria applicants, show that the tendency to pursue studies is different between males and females. Therefore, their structural models differ from each other. The results of forecast in structural method support the high effectiveness of economic growth index. Most predictions are often confirmed the reduction in the number of applicants during the 2012-2025 period, especially for men. Social implications – This paper can be helpful in opening up a discourse around cross-cultural elements in higher education demands and planning for higher education. Originality/value – It’s important to forecast the demand for higher education using different methods, and to compare the results for specific countries.

Journal

Journal of Applied Research in Higher Education – Emerald Publishing

Published: Sep 14, 2015

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