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Evaluating agricultural catastrophic risk

Evaluating agricultural catastrophic risk Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an evaluation method for agricultural catastrophic risk. Design/methodology/approach – Data on agricultural disaster loss are collected based on hectares covered by natural disasters, hectares affected by natural disasters, and hectares destroyed by natural disasters using the standard process. Peak over threshold (POT) approach based on the extreme value theory is used to model the distribution of agricultural catastrophic loss, and value at risk (VaR) is used to assess agricultural catastrophic risk. Findings – This paper provides an approach for collecting agricultural loss data and modelling probability distribution of agricultural catastrophic loss, which is promising for agricultural catastrophic risk evaluating. As the quantified measurement of agricultural catastrophic risk, VaR is observed to be appropriate and feasible. Results of empirical research demonstrate that drought catastrophe negatively affects grain‐production in the northeast region of China; in particular, the drought catastrophic risk is severe within a 100‐year scenario and thus is expected to recur. Originality/value – To provide an accurate agricultural catastrophic risk assessment, data collection based on disaster occurrence instead of crop yield, and VaR is used in this paper. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png China Agricultural Economic Review Emerald Publishing

Evaluating agricultural catastrophic risk

China Agricultural Economic Review , Volume 3 (4): 11 – Nov 22, 2011

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2011 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
1756-137X
DOI
10.1108/17561371111192310
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an evaluation method for agricultural catastrophic risk. Design/methodology/approach – Data on agricultural disaster loss are collected based on hectares covered by natural disasters, hectares affected by natural disasters, and hectares destroyed by natural disasters using the standard process. Peak over threshold (POT) approach based on the extreme value theory is used to model the distribution of agricultural catastrophic loss, and value at risk (VaR) is used to assess agricultural catastrophic risk. Findings – This paper provides an approach for collecting agricultural loss data and modelling probability distribution of agricultural catastrophic loss, which is promising for agricultural catastrophic risk evaluating. As the quantified measurement of agricultural catastrophic risk, VaR is observed to be appropriate and feasible. Results of empirical research demonstrate that drought catastrophe negatively affects grain‐production in the northeast region of China; in particular, the drought catastrophic risk is severe within a 100‐year scenario and thus is expected to recur. Originality/value – To provide an accurate agricultural catastrophic risk assessment, data collection based on disaster occurrence instead of crop yield, and VaR is used in this paper.

Journal

China Agricultural Economic ReviewEmerald Publishing

Published: Nov 22, 2011

Keywords: China; Agriculture; Risk assessment; Agricultural catastrophe; Agricultural loss data; POT; VaR; China

References