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Deciphering the Hindu growth epic

Deciphering the Hindu growth epic Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the factors contributing to India's growth acceleration since 1970, based on the neoclassical growth model. Design/methodology/approach – A feature of neoclassical growth models is that capital accumulation is induced by both productivity growth and increases in investment rates. The paper uses a growth decomposition method based on that of Robertson. The method reconstructs India's actual growth path exactly, then decomposes the growth using counterfactual simulations, holding investment rates constant and productivity growth constant. The role of human capital is also discussed. Findings – An increase in the productivity growth rate from 1970 accounts for 68per cent of India's post 1970s growth and the rise in the investment rate accounts for 30 per cent. Hence an upward trend in productivity growth has been more than twice as important as the doubling of the investment rate. A similar conclusion applies for the post 2000 era, where a rise in investment from 25 per cent to 37 per cent of GDP, only adds about 0.7 percentage points of growth to the 4.5 per cent annual growth rate over this period. Originality/value – The paper provides quantitative estimates of the role of investment and productivity to India's growth based on the neoclassical growth model. It thus improves upon existing growth accounting studies by allowing for the induced effect of productivity growth on capital accumulation. It also improves upon existing development accounting techniques that rely on steady state restrictions, and which would therefore be inappropriate for evaluating India's recent transitional growth. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Indian Growth and Development Review Emerald Publishing

Deciphering the Hindu growth epic

Peter E. Robertson
Indian Growth and Development Review , Volume 5 (1): 19 – Apr 13, 2012
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References (61)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2012 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
1753-8254
DOI
10.1108/17538251211224132
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the factors contributing to India's growth acceleration since 1970, based on the neoclassical growth model. Design/methodology/approach – A feature of neoclassical growth models is that capital accumulation is induced by both productivity growth and increases in investment rates. The paper uses a growth decomposition method based on that of Robertson. The method reconstructs India's actual growth path exactly, then decomposes the growth using counterfactual simulations, holding investment rates constant and productivity growth constant. The role of human capital is also discussed. Findings – An increase in the productivity growth rate from 1970 accounts for 68per cent of India's post 1970s growth and the rise in the investment rate accounts for 30 per cent. Hence an upward trend in productivity growth has been more than twice as important as the doubling of the investment rate. A similar conclusion applies for the post 2000 era, where a rise in investment from 25 per cent to 37 per cent of GDP, only adds about 0.7 percentage points of growth to the 4.5 per cent annual growth rate over this period. Originality/value – The paper provides quantitative estimates of the role of investment and productivity to India's growth based on the neoclassical growth model. It thus improves upon existing growth accounting studies by allowing for the induced effect of productivity growth on capital accumulation. It also improves upon existing development accounting techniques that rely on steady state restrictions, and which would therefore be inappropriate for evaluating India's recent transitional growth.

Journal

Indian Growth and Development Review – Emerald Publishing

Published: Apr 13, 2012

Keywords: India; Economic growth; National economy; Growth accounting; Investments; Productivity

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