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Bitcoin, uncertainty and internet searches

Bitcoin, uncertainty and internet searches This paper aims to examine the predictive power of the volume of Economic Uncertainty Related Queries and the Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index on the Bitcoin returns.Design/methodology/approachData consists of 118 monthly observations from September 2010 to June 2020. Due to the departure of series from Gaussian distribution and the existence of outliers, the authors use the quantile analysis framework to investigate the persistency of the shocks, the long-run relationships and Granger causality among the variables.FindingsThis research provides several important findings. First, the substantial differences between conventional and quantile test results stress the importance of the method selection. Second, throughout the conditional distribution of the series, stochastic properties of the variables, long-run and the causal relationships between the variables might be significantly different. Third, rich information provided by the quantile framework might help the investors design better investment strategies.Originality/valueThis study differs from the previous research in terms of variable selection and econometric methodology. Therefore, it presents a more comprehensive framework that suggests implications for empirical researchers and Bitcoin investors. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Studies in Economics and Finance Emerald Publishing

Bitcoin, uncertainty and internet searches

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References (76)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
© Emerald Publishing Limited
ISSN
1086-7376
eISSN
1086-7376
DOI
10.1108/sef-12-2021-0536
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This paper aims to examine the predictive power of the volume of Economic Uncertainty Related Queries and the Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index on the Bitcoin returns.Design/methodology/approachData consists of 118 monthly observations from September 2010 to June 2020. Due to the departure of series from Gaussian distribution and the existence of outliers, the authors use the quantile analysis framework to investigate the persistency of the shocks, the long-run relationships and Granger causality among the variables.FindingsThis research provides several important findings. First, the substantial differences between conventional and quantile test results stress the importance of the method selection. Second, throughout the conditional distribution of the series, stochastic properties of the variables, long-run and the causal relationships between the variables might be significantly different. Third, rich information provided by the quantile framework might help the investors design better investment strategies.Originality/valueThis study differs from the previous research in terms of variable selection and econometric methodology. Therefore, it presents a more comprehensive framework that suggests implications for empirical researchers and Bitcoin investors.

Journal

Studies in Economics and FinanceEmerald Publishing

Published: Jan 3, 2023

Keywords: Bitcoin; Macroeconomic uncertainty; Internet search volumes; Economic uncertainty related queries; Quantile estimation; G12; G15; C01; C21; C58

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