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An attempt of a crystal ball for hotels in a gaming destination, Macao

An attempt of a crystal ball for hotels in a gaming destination, Macao Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to consider the issue of forecasting hotel room rate with data from 2004 onwards and the forecast horizons of 91 observations. Design/methodology/approach– This study employs a set of time series data (91 observations) on average monthly hotel room rates to generate an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models (ARIMA) forecasting model. Findings– Through the employment of 74 percent observations, with 26 percent withhold for evaluation checking, six best models are identified from 50 models under study. The final model reports a high level of predictive accuracy and provides useful insights for hoteliers to form business strategies. Originality/value– This research provides a well-defined model to forecast the room rate of three-star hotels in the city. The research findings provide good ground for strategic management of the industry, in which there is an imbalance between demand and supply of hotel accommodations. In addition, being the first of its kind in one of the largest gaming revenue generation city in the world, this research provides valuable information for further research of its kind in the future. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png International Journal of Tourism Cities Emerald Publishing

An attempt of a crystal ball for hotels in a gaming destination, Macao

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISSN
2056-5607
DOI
10.1108/IJTC-08-2014-0006
Publisher site
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Abstract

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to consider the issue of forecasting hotel room rate with data from 2004 onwards and the forecast horizons of 91 observations. Design/methodology/approach– This study employs a set of time series data (91 observations) on average monthly hotel room rates to generate an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models (ARIMA) forecasting model. Findings– Through the employment of 74 percent observations, with 26 percent withhold for evaluation checking, six best models are identified from 50 models under study. The final model reports a high level of predictive accuracy and provides useful insights for hoteliers to form business strategies. Originality/value– This research provides a well-defined model to forecast the room rate of three-star hotels in the city. The research findings provide good ground for strategic management of the industry, in which there is an imbalance between demand and supply of hotel accommodations. In addition, being the first of its kind in one of the largest gaming revenue generation city in the world, this research provides valuable information for further research of its kind in the future.

Journal

International Journal of Tourism Cities – Emerald Publishing

Published: May 5, 2015

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