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On the relationship between oil and gold before and after financial crisis: linear, nonlinear and time-varying causality testing

On the relationship between oil and gold before and after financial crisis: linear, nonlinear and... Abstract We examine the causal relationship between crude oil and gold spot prices before and after the recent financial crisis. In the pre-crisis period, causality is linear and unidirectional, running from oil to gold. In the post-crisis period, a bidirectional nonlinear causality relationship emerges. Volatility spillover transpires as the source of nonlinearity during this period. The time path of the causal linkages both for the returns and the levels (cointegration) was assessed via dynamic bootstrap causality analysis. We find that the causal linkage from gold to oil is time dependent and that the non-Granger causality null hypothesis rejection rate increased considerably in the post-financial crisis period. The probability of gold Granger causing oil in the short-run increases by more than 30% during the recent financial and euro crisis. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics de Gruyter

On the relationship between oil and gold before and after financial crisis: linear, nonlinear and time-varying causality testing

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Publisher
de Gruyter
Copyright
Copyright © 2015 by the
ISSN
1081-1826
eISSN
1558-3708
DOI
10.1515/snde-2014-0060
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Abstract We examine the causal relationship between crude oil and gold spot prices before and after the recent financial crisis. In the pre-crisis period, causality is linear and unidirectional, running from oil to gold. In the post-crisis period, a bidirectional nonlinear causality relationship emerges. Volatility spillover transpires as the source of nonlinearity during this period. The time path of the causal linkages both for the returns and the levels (cointegration) was assessed via dynamic bootstrap causality analysis. We find that the causal linkage from gold to oil is time dependent and that the non-Granger causality null hypothesis rejection rate increased considerably in the post-financial crisis period. The probability of gold Granger causing oil in the short-run increases by more than 30% during the recent financial and euro crisis.

Journal

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics – de Gruyter

Published: Dec 1, 2015

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    Tang