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Explaining and Predicting Midterm Congressional Election Outcomes: Factoring in Opposition Party Strategy

Explaining and Predicting Midterm Congressional Election Outcomes: Factoring in Opposition Party... AbstractMidterm congressional elections are referenda on the president not by happenstance but by design, as the opposition party and its candidates attack the administration when political conditions provide the opportunity. Models for explaining and predicting the number of seats won by the president’s party incorporating the number of seats held before the election, prior election results, change in status of the economy, and presidential evaluation data conditioned by strategy of the opposition party are presented. These models improve upon traditional models of midterm election explanations and predictions, providing parsimonious, theory-driven, and accurate models of midterm election outcomes. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Forum de Gruyter

Explaining and Predicting Midterm Congressional Election Outcomes: Factoring in Opposition Party Strategy

King, James D.
The Forum , Volume 17 (2): 22 – Jul 26, 2019
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References (83)

Publisher
de Gruyter
Copyright
©2019 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
ISSN
1540-8884
eISSN
1540-8884
DOI
10.1515/for-2019-0014
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractMidterm congressional elections are referenda on the president not by happenstance but by design, as the opposition party and its candidates attack the administration when political conditions provide the opportunity. Models for explaining and predicting the number of seats won by the president’s party incorporating the number of seats held before the election, prior election results, change in status of the economy, and presidential evaluation data conditioned by strategy of the opposition party are presented. These models improve upon traditional models of midterm election explanations and predictions, providing parsimonious, theory-driven, and accurate models of midterm election outcomes.

Journal

The Forum – de Gruyter

Published: Jul 26, 2019

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