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Dynamics of Online Collective Attention as Hawkes Self-exciting Process

Dynamics of Online Collective Attention as Hawkes Self-exciting Process AbstractUnderstanding the dynamic formation mechanism of online collective attention has been attracted diversified interests such as Internet memes, viral videos, or social media platforms and Web-based businesses, and has practical application in the area of marketing and advertising, propagation of information. Bulletin Board System, or BBS can be regarded as an ecosystem of digital resources connected and shaped by collective successive behaviors of users. Clicks and replies of the posts quantify the degree of collective attention. For example, the collective clicking behavior of users on BBS gives rise to the up and down of focus on posts, and transporting attention between topics, the ratio between clicks and replies measure the heat degree of a post. We analyzed the dynamics of collective attention millions of users on an interactive Tianya Zatan BBS. By analyzing the dynamics of clicks we uncovered a non-trivial Hawkes process self-exciting regularity concerning the impact of novelty exponential decay mechanism. Here, it able to explain the empirical data of BBS remarkably well, such as popular topics are observed in time frequently cluster, asymptotic normality of clicks. Our findings indicate that collective attention among large populations decays with a exponential decaying law, suggest the existence of a natural time scale over novelty fades. Importantly, we show that self-exciting point processes can be used for the purpose of collective attention modeling. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Open Physics de Gruyter

Dynamics of Online Collective Attention as Hawkes Self-exciting Process

Li, Zhenpeng; Xijin, Tang
Open Physics , Volume 18 (1): 8 – Jan 31, 2020
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Publisher
de Gruyter
Copyright
© 2020 Z. Li and T. Xijin, published by De Gruyter
ISSN
2391-5471
eISSN
2391-5471
DOI
10.1515/phys-2020-0002
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractUnderstanding the dynamic formation mechanism of online collective attention has been attracted diversified interests such as Internet memes, viral videos, or social media platforms and Web-based businesses, and has practical application in the area of marketing and advertising, propagation of information. Bulletin Board System, or BBS can be regarded as an ecosystem of digital resources connected and shaped by collective successive behaviors of users. Clicks and replies of the posts quantify the degree of collective attention. For example, the collective clicking behavior of users on BBS gives rise to the up and down of focus on posts, and transporting attention between topics, the ratio between clicks and replies measure the heat degree of a post. We analyzed the dynamics of collective attention millions of users on an interactive Tianya Zatan BBS. By analyzing the dynamics of clicks we uncovered a non-trivial Hawkes process self-exciting regularity concerning the impact of novelty exponential decay mechanism. Here, it able to explain the empirical data of BBS remarkably well, such as popular topics are observed in time frequently cluster, asymptotic normality of clicks. Our findings indicate that collective attention among large populations decays with a exponential decaying law, suggest the existence of a natural time scale over novelty fades. Importantly, we show that self-exciting point processes can be used for the purpose of collective attention modeling.

Journal

Open Physics – de Gruyter

Published: Jan 31, 2020

References

  • Embedding-based subsequence matching in time-series databases[J]
  • Predictability of extreme events in social media
  • Competition-induced criticality in a model of meme popularity