Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

A Time Series Modeling Approach in Risk Appraisal of Violent and Sexual Recidivism

A Time Series Modeling Approach in Risk Appraisal of Violent and Sexual Recidivism For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk assessment and management of violent offenders. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Law and Human Behavior American Psychological Association

A Time Series Modeling Approach in Risk Appraisal of Violent and Sexual Recidivism

Loading next page...
 
/lp/american-psychological-association/a-time-series-modeling-approach-in-risk-appraisal-of-violent-and-itQ48SsqDs

References (94)

Publisher
American Psychological Association
Copyright
Copyright © 2010 American Psychological Association
ISSN
0147-7307
eISSN
1573-661X
DOI
10.1007/s10979-009-9183-y
pmid
19399599
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk assessment and management of violent offenders.

Journal

Law and Human BehaviorAmerican Psychological Association

Published: Oct 28, 2010

There are no references for this article.