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Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2†

Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2† AbstractThis paper offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the United States, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynamics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate, and the planning horizon. (JEL I12, I18, J11) http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png American Economic Review Insights American Economic Association

Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2†

Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2†

AER: Insights 2021, 3(3): 321–338 https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20200343 Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for  SARS-CoV-2 By Chryssi Giannitsarou, Stephen Kissler, and Flavio Toxvaerd* This paper offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the United States, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynam- ics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate, and the planning horizon. (JEL I12, I18, J11) The twentieth century witnessed a dramatic transition in the burden from infec- tious diseases. In the United States, the yearly mortality rate per 100,000 population fell from around 800 in the early 1900s to about midcentury 50 by (Armstrong, Conn, and Pinner 1999; Hansen et al. 2016 ). These gains in public health were made possible by a series of significant innovations, not least by the development of treatments and vaccines. Since the 1950s, these mortality rates have remained rel- atively stable despite increases in deaths due to diseases such as HIV/AIDS in the 1980s. This relative stability of mortality numbers over the past decades may have lead to complacency, with many advanced economies ill equipped to still contain lar ge-scale epidemics. Yet as is now clear, societies must confront the difficult ques- tion of how to best organize themselves in a world where new infectious diseases keep appearing and may remain endemic. A case in point is CO VID-19, which is causing devastating health and economic effects around the world. Much recent research on...
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References (42)

Publisher
American Economic Association
Copyright
Copyright © 2021 © American Economic Association
ISSN
2640-205X
eISSN
2640-2068
DOI
10.1257/aeri.20200343
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractThis paper offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the United States, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynamics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate, and the planning horizon. (JEL I12, I18, J11)

Journal

American Economic Review InsightsAmerican Economic Association

Published: Sep 1, 2021

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