The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders†

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2021, 13(4): 194–225 https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20190207 The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders By Anne Sofie Tegner Anker, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Rasmus Landersø* This paper studies the effects of adding criminal offenders to a DNA database. Using a large expansion of Denmark’s DNA database, we find that DNA registration reduces recidivism within the following year by up to 42 percent. It also increases the probability that offend- ers are identified if they recidivate, which we use to estimate the elas- ticity of crime with respect to the detection probability and find that a 1 percent higher detection probability reduces crime by more than 2 percent. We also find that DNA registration increases the likelihood that offenders find employment, enroll in education, and live in a more stable family environment. (JEL J22, J24, K42) urveillance technologies have the potential to improve public safety by increas- ing the probability that offenders are caught for their crimes, thereby deterring criminal behavior. They may also take serial offenders who are not deterred off the streets faster. While the existence and direction of these effects have much support in the literature, we currently know very little about precisely how much deterrence we achieve for any given increase in the likelihood that an offender is apprehended. Furthermore, crime deterrence may have additional benefits through effects on labor market attachment, education, and family life. Understanding these effects is essen- tial for determining how best to use scarce law enforcement resources. This paper addresses these issues by studying the causal effects of DNA regis- tration of criminal offenders. The goal of DNA registration is to deter offenders and increase the likelihood of detection for future crimes by enabling matches of known offenders with DNA from crime scene evidence. We...