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Targeting Long Rates in a Model with Segmented Markets †

Targeting Long Rates in a Model with Segmented Markets † Abstract This paper develops a model of segmented financial markets in which the net worth of financial institutions limits the degree of arbitrage across the term structure. The model is embedded into the canonical Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) framework. We estimate the model using data on the term premium. Our principal results include the following. First, the estimated segmentation coefficient implies a nontrivial effect of central bank asset purchases on yields and real activity. Second, there are welfare gains to having the central bank respond to the term premium, e.g., including the term premium in the Taylor Rule. Third, a policy that directly targets the term premium sterilizes the real economy from shocks originating in the financial sector. A term-premium peg can have significant welfare effects. (JEL E12, E23, E31, E43, E44, E52, E58 ) http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics American Economic Association

Targeting Long Rates in a Model with Segmented Markets †

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Publisher
American Economic Association
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 by the American Economic Association
Subject
Articles
ISSN
1945-7715
eISSN
1945-7715
DOI
10.1257/mac.20150179
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Abstract This paper develops a model of segmented financial markets in which the net worth of financial institutions limits the degree of arbitrage across the term structure. The model is embedded into the canonical Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) framework. We estimate the model using data on the term premium. Our principal results include the following. First, the estimated segmentation coefficient implies a nontrivial effect of central bank asset purchases on yields and real activity. Second, there are welfare gains to having the central bank respond to the term premium, e.g., including the term premium in the Taylor Rule. Third, a policy that directly targets the term premium sterilizes the real economy from shocks originating in the financial sector. A term-premium peg can have significant welfare effects. (JEL E12, E23, E31, E43, E44, E52, E58 )

Journal

American Economic Journal: MacroeconomicsAmerican Economic Association

Published: Jan 1, 2017

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