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Historical Presidential Betting Markets

Historical Presidential Betting Markets Abstract This paper analyzes the large and often well-organized markets for betting on U.S. presidential elections that operated between 1868 and 1940. Four main points are addressed. First, we show that the market did a remarkable job forecasting elections in an era before scientific polling. Second, the market was fairly efficient, despite the limited information of participants and active attempts to manipulate the odds. Third, we argue political betting markets disappeared largely because of the rise of scientific polls and the increasing availability of other forms of gambling. Finally, we discuss lessons this experience provides for the present. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Economic Perspectives American Economic Association

Historical Presidential Betting Markets

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References (15)

Publisher
American Economic Association
Copyright
Copyright © 2004 by the American Economic Association
Subject
Symposia
ISSN
0895-3309
DOI
10.1257/0895330041371277
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Abstract This paper analyzes the large and often well-organized markets for betting on U.S. presidential elections that operated between 1868 and 1940. Four main points are addressed. First, we show that the market did a remarkable job forecasting elections in an era before scientific polling. Second, the market was fairly efficient, despite the limited information of participants and active attempts to manipulate the odds. Third, we argue political betting markets disappeared largely because of the rise of scientific polls and the increasing availability of other forms of gambling. Finally, we discuss lessons this experience provides for the present.

Journal

Journal of Economic PerspectivesAmerican Economic Association

Published: Jun 1, 2004

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