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THE NEGATIVE EFFECT OF ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON PRESIDENTIAL RHETORICAL OPTIMISM ABOUT THE ECONOMY IN THE UNITED STATES

THE NEGATIVE EFFECT OF ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON PRESIDENTIAL RHETORICAL OPTIMISM ABOUT THE... Recent research by Baker et al. (2013) has created a historical indicator of economic policy uncertainty in the United States, based on an index score derived from content analyses of major U.S. newspapers. Empirical work using this measure has primarily focused on the economic consequences of shifts in economic policy uncertainty. The purpose of this project is to make the first empirical attempt at assessing whether changes in economic policy uncertainty have any role on the tone the President of the United States adopts when speaking about general economic conditions. Using the economic policy uncertainty information devised by Baker et al. (2013), and contrasting this with information about presidential rhetorical tone about the economy developed by Wood (2007), the vector autoregression analysis indicates prior levels of economic policy uncertainty Granger-causes current presidential rhetorical optimism about the economy. The moving average representation analysis suggests that an increase in the economic policy uncertainty index results in a decrease in presidential rhetorical optimism about the general economy. JEL codes: E02; E60; C22 Keywords: economic policy uncertainty; macroeconomics; presidential economic rhetoric; presidential economic optimism; political communication; presidential communication http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Economics, Management, and Financial Markets Addleton Academic Publishers

THE NEGATIVE EFFECT OF ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON PRESIDENTIAL RHETORICAL OPTIMISM ABOUT THE ECONOMY IN THE UNITED STATES

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Publisher
Addleton Academic Publishers
Copyright
© 2009 Addleton Academic Publishers
ISSN
1842-3191
eISSN
1938-212X
Publisher site
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Abstract

Recent research by Baker et al. (2013) has created a historical indicator of economic policy uncertainty in the United States, based on an index score derived from content analyses of major U.S. newspapers. Empirical work using this measure has primarily focused on the economic consequences of shifts in economic policy uncertainty. The purpose of this project is to make the first empirical attempt at assessing whether changes in economic policy uncertainty have any role on the tone the President of the United States adopts when speaking about general economic conditions. Using the economic policy uncertainty information devised by Baker et al. (2013), and contrasting this with information about presidential rhetorical tone about the economy developed by Wood (2007), the vector autoregression analysis indicates prior levels of economic policy uncertainty Granger-causes current presidential rhetorical optimism about the economy. The moving average representation analysis suggests that an increase in the economic policy uncertainty index results in a decrease in presidential rhetorical optimism about the general economy. JEL codes: E02; E60; C22 Keywords: economic policy uncertainty; macroeconomics; presidential economic rhetoric; presidential economic optimism; political communication; presidential communication

Journal

Economics, Management, and Financial Markets – Addleton Academic Publishers

Published: Jan 1, 2015

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