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TESTING LONG MEMORY IN STOCK RETURNS OF EMERGING MARKETS: SOME FURTHER EVIDENCE

TESTING LONG MEMORY IN STOCK RETURNS OF EMERGING MARKETS: SOME FURTHER EVIDENCE The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of long memory stock returns of emerging markets. The study carries out a biased reduced semiparametric test to detect long memory in mean process. The results suggest no strong evidence of long memory in mean process of stock returns both in emerging and developed markets. The results are in contrast with earlier studies, which conclude that emerging markets in general characterized by long memory process. Hence, long memory is not a peculiar characteristic of emerging markets but appear to be stylized fact of asset returns irrespective of stage of development of the market. The test results are reliable and preferable to other test of long memory as it reduces bias in the estimation. The results suggest that short memory forecasting methods are relevant for predicting the future returns. JEL Classification: G14, C14, C58 Keywords: long memory, volatility persistence, mean-reversion, semi-parametric test, hyperbolic decay, market efficiency, emerging markets http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Economics, Management, and Financial Markets Addleton Academic Publishers

TESTING LONG MEMORY IN STOCK RETURNS OF EMERGING MARKETS: SOME FURTHER EVIDENCE

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Publisher
Addleton Academic Publishers
Copyright
© 2009 Addleton Academic Publishers
ISSN
1842-3191
eISSN
1938-212X
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of long memory stock returns of emerging markets. The study carries out a biased reduced semiparametric test to detect long memory in mean process. The results suggest no strong evidence of long memory in mean process of stock returns both in emerging and developed markets. The results are in contrast with earlier studies, which conclude that emerging markets in general characterized by long memory process. Hence, long memory is not a peculiar characteristic of emerging markets but appear to be stylized fact of asset returns irrespective of stage of development of the market. The test results are reliable and preferable to other test of long memory as it reduces bias in the estimation. The results suggest that short memory forecasting methods are relevant for predicting the future returns. JEL Classification: G14, C14, C58 Keywords: long memory, volatility persistence, mean-reversion, semi-parametric test, hyperbolic decay, market efficiency, emerging markets

Journal

Economics, Management, and Financial MarketsAddleton Academic Publishers

Published: Jan 1, 2012

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