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Abstract The role of education in economic growth has been clearly established. This address is concerned with several issues: What are the benefits and costs of education? Where does the United States stand in educational attainment in historical perspective and relative to OECD nations? What...
Abstract In the past, various great powers have taken the stage as models of economic and social development. Examples such as Great Britain, the Soviet Union, Japan, and the United States have had their time in the spotlight that has come and gone as flaws were exposed; and other countries have...
Abstract In this paper, we study the time-varying total risk of value and growth stocks. The objective is to investigate the contention that the market factor's ability to explain the value premium is limited. Inspired by Ferson and Harvey , we revisit the role of the market beta in the...
Abstract A key question for businesses and investors is whether the low inflation and low long-term interest rates we are now experiencing are a business cycle or a longer-term phenomenon. This paper updates and expands my earlier study on long waves [Synnott 1995]. Using this analytical...
Abstract The national debate over the fate of U.S. manufacturing is back, with some asking the question: Is manufacturing dead? However, the U.S. manufacturing sector has been making a surprising comeback and added jobs in 2010 and 2011 following 12 straight years of declines. Utilizing economic...
Abstract It is generally believed that the recession of 2007–09 was not foreseen by business economists. Is this perceived view accurate? We explore this issue by examining business economists’ published statements about economic conditions. We compare these qualitative forecasts with the Beige...
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