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Abstract Over the past year, substantial progress has been made on the path to economic recovery. Yet, as true with most recessions induced by a financial crisis, recovery is going to be long and slow. This is particularly true for employment. Moreover, there is evidence that indicates there are...
Abstract This paper emphasizes the economic variables and data used to model notices of default in California. Forecast models are notoriously complicated and require sophisticated software to run. Few businesses, particularly small enterprises, have the necessary resources to engage in...
Abstract This article evaluates which economic indicators are the most useful for signaling recessions. The article uses a modified Markov switching method to compare the timing of recession signals across many indicators. In its present form, it is difficult to use the Markov switching methods...
Abstract The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has often been the subject of controversy. Historically, the most prominent critics have argued that the CPI overstates changes in the cost of living. Recently, however, some in the investment community and business media have argued that the CPI is an...
Abstract Using an econometric model system built on county-level labor market data, this study allocates new employment in Virginia from 1990 to 2000 into: commuters, residents, and new entrants to the labor force (including immigrants). The study finds significant leakage of new employment...
Abstract A number of industries underwent large and permanent reductions in employment growth at the beginning of this decade. We investigate the sources of these permanent changes in employment growth and what the consequences were for the U.S. economy. In particular, we find that relative...
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