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The economic environment is now very different from that which reigned since the global financial crisis. The long era of low inflation, suppressed volatility, and easy financial conditions is ending. It is being replaced by more challenging macro dynamics in which supply shocks are as important...
This note argues that the Fed does not have much effect on inflation expectations and that its effect on aggregate demand, and thus on inflation, is modest. Econometric results suggest that a short term interest rate increase of 1.0 percentage point results in a decrease in inflation of 0.43...
The data demands during the pandemic heightened the need to blend information from numerous sources to get a more timely and granular picture of economic developments. Ongoing efforts include the Chicago Fed’s weekly retail sales estimate, the Census Bureau’s work on higher-frequency state-level...
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