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Abstract I do not see it as likely that the Phillips curve is dead, or that it will soon exact revenge. It is more likely that many factors, including better conduct of monetary policy over the past few decades, have greatly reduced, but not eliminated, the effects that tight labor markets have...
Abstract This paper argues that the slow U.S. recovery after the 2008–2009 recession was due to sluggish government spending. The analysis uses a structural macroeconometric model. Conditional on government policy, the errors in predicting output for the 2009.4–2017.4 period are within what one...
Abstract A structural break in the GDP growth—PMI relationship occurred in 2004Q1. The break is likely the result of a secular slowdown in average GDP growth. PMI-based forecasts of GDP growth that ignore the break are biased. Modeling the break eliminates forecast bias, reduces root mean square...
Abstract This paper discusses the implications of neuroeconomics with respect to behavioral attitudes toward the interpretation of current economic events. To this end it first brings to the fore two aspects of neuroeconomics, namely, that thinking imposes strain on the mind, and that brain...
Abstract Retirement planning is a key component in achieving goals and fulfilling expectations. Although several socioeconomic and psychological factors associated with retirement planning have been reported in the literature, little is known about the influence that specific retirement-related...
Abstract Oil price shocks have had significant effects on the U.S. economy, keeping energy supply, energy policy, and energy security always in focus. The U.S. energy industry has become more efficient and productive, with increased output despite a smaller energy sector. Since the oil price...
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